Racial Attitudes and the Rise of Donald Trump

Race and racial attitudes were central to Donald Trump's rise to political prominence, dating back to before his 2015 presidential campaign announcement.
This doesn't imply race was the only factor, but it was undeniably crucial.

Trump's messaging was a direct response to trends during Barack Obama's presidency.
Racial and Partisan Divide: Partisan preferences became increasingly divided along racial attitudes.
Immigration Attitudes: Partisan politics were also significantly divided by attitudes toward immigration, especially after 2006.
Growing Partisan Divide Between Whites and Non-Whites:
- This divide expanded during Obama's era, with low-education, racially conservative whites increasingly identifying as Republican.
- Racially conscious African Americans, demonstrating in-group solidarity, increasingly identified as Democrats.
- Latinos and Asian Americans with less favorable views of whites also leaned more towards the Democratic Party.
Attitudes About Muslims:
- Partisan preferences became more divided by attitudes toward Muslims during the Obama era.
- Before Obama, there was little difference between Democrats and Republicans in their views of Muslims.
- The narrative that Obama was a secret Muslim fueled Islamophobia and partisan division.

Trump championed the "birtherism" movement, questioning whether Obama was born in the United States.
This tapped into sentiments suggesting people of color were not "true" Americans.
In 2010, Trump positioned himself as a leader of this movement.

Anti-immigrant sentiments became increasingly polarized amid fears of changing demographics.
This became central to Trump's 2015 campaign announcement.
His remarks about Mexicans bringing drugs and crime led to backlash from politicians, media, and corporations (e.g., Macy's).

Islamophobia, fueled by misperceptions about Obama's religion, also played a key role.
This culminated in Trump's December 2015 proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S.
A rally in September 2016 demonstrated the projection of anti-Obama sentiments onto Trump.

Republican Support in 2011: Trump gained significant Republican support during the height of birtherism.
His favorability ratings surpassed those of established Republican leaders like John Boehner.
Among birther believers, Trump was preferred as a potential president.

Obama initially resisted showing his birth certificate but eventually released it in response to growing birther beliefs.
He then famously mocked Trump at the White House Correspondents Dinner.
Coincidentally, Obama authorized the raid that killed Osama bin Laden around the same time.

A January 2015 poll revealed that many Republican voters believed Obama was a Muslim.
Concerns about immigration immediately boosted Trump's rise in the polls during the summer of 2015.
Analysis showed Trump's support was substantive and tied to immigration concerns.
Anti-Muslim sentiment was also strongly linked to Trump support.
Trump's popularity in 2016 far exceeded that of McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
Racial resentment was also a significant predictor of Trump support.

It was initially thought that racial attitudes might be harder to activate in the general election.
However, Clinton took a stronger stance on racial justice than Obama, potentially alienating some white voters.
Identity issues dominated campaign ads.
Americans were highly aware of Trump's controversial policies on race and ethnicity (e.g., the Muslim ban).
Public perception saw a wider divide between the candidates on race than ever before.
Specifically, perceptions of difference regarding government assistance for Black Americans increased dramatically.
Racial resentment had an even more important role in 2016 than 2012.

Trump's support had to do with both race and economics, linked by perceptions of economic deservingness.
This is rooted in the social psychology concept of attribution error.
Attribution Error:
- When whites struggle, their difficulties are often attributed to situational factors.
- When non-whites struggle, their plight is more often attributed to dispositional traits.
Obama alluded to this in his farewell address, warning against framing economic issues as a struggle between the white middle class and minorities.
Data from 2016 showed Trump voters saw average Americans as deserving, but black Americans as over-deserving. Clinton voters thought that both groups were getting less than they deserved.

The political landscape became "less polarized by race, but more polarized over race."
In 2020, white voters were more supportive of Joe Biden than they had been of Clinton or Obama.
However, Biden lost ground with voters of color, especially those with more conservative views on race.
In the Obama era, whites moved away from Democrats, and minorities moved toward them. By 2020, the reverse began to occur.
Racial attitudes impacted both trends.
Black, Latino and Asian Americans defecting to Trump held racially conservative views.
In 2024, Trump explicitly appealed to anti-immigrant sentiment among voters of color.
Voters of color with restrictive immigration attitudes were most likely to switch to Trump between 2020 and 2024.
A survey showed shifts to Trump among Black and Hispanic voters who favored using the military to deport unauthorized immigrants.

There's a growing partisan divide over race.
Trump expanded the racialization of mass politics seen during Obama's presidency.
The 2016 election saw the Democrats abandon racial silencing in favor of direct appeals to racial and ethnic minorities, while Trump demonstrated the power of explicit racial appeals.
During these elections, it became clear nonwhite groups are not racial monoliths because there is a large number of them who identify with the grievance based politics of Trump.
In 2020 and 2024, politics became less polarized by race, but more polarized over race.
The question going forward is whether the shift of minority voters toward the Republican Party is permanent.