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Overview of ISIS
  • Fall of the ISIS Caliphate:
    • In March 2019, ISIS was expelled from its last territories in Syria and Iraq after peaking in control by late 2014.
    • The group's control resulted in the systematic targeting of non-Sunni Syrians and Iraqis, imposing extortionate taxes and brutal governance.
  • Foreign Involvement:
    • Approximately 40,000 foreign fighters joined ISIS from 80 countries; 230 reported Australians.
Structure and Organization
  • Territorial Expansion:
    • ISIS established subsidiaries treated as provinces (wilayat), often spanning multiple countries.
    • Even areas without direct control were referred to as provinces to maintain a façade of expansion.
  • External Operations:
    • Prior to claiming a caliphate, ISIS developed an external operations section to organize attacks outside of its territories. Supporters were encouraged to commit local acts of violence in their home countries.
The Global Response
  • Coalition Against ISIS:
    • Formed in September 2014, consisting of 80 nations, with the US leading military efforts through Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR).
    • Australia has actively participated in the coalition through Operation Okra and contributed to intelligence gather efforts.
Continuing Threat and Resilience
  • Remaining ISIS Presence:
    • Despite territorial losses, ISIS retains thousands of supporters and networks for insurgency.
    • Reports from intelligence agencies indicate ongoing threat levels, particularly in Iraq where ISIS may revive its activities within twelve months.
  • Historical Resurgence Strategies:
    • Following near defeat in 2008 (as ISI), ISIS adapted by forming decentralized, network-like structures to survive and plot resurgence.
    • Tactics involved exploiting local grievances through assassination and intimidation to weaken state authority.
Governance under ISIS
  • Implementation of Governance:
    • Offered services to create an illusion of effective governance (e.g., garbage collection and electricity), yet imposed strict social regulations.
    • Citizens were coerced into obedience through threat of punishment or death.
  • Control Mechanisms:
    • The hisba brigades enforced moral laws and order, while the intelligence apparatus managed internal loyalty and dissent.
Current Dynamics
  • Re-emergence of Insurgency:
    • ISIS has reverted to a cellular format in Iraq and Syria, continuing hit-and-run tactics, often targeting security personnel and infrastructure.
    • An estimated 14,000-18,000 remnants still exist, causing ongoing instability in rural Sunni communities.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
  • International Efforts to Combat ISIS:
    • Sustainable international engagement is necessary to prevent ISIS’s resurgence through addressing issues like detainee management and community rebuilding.
  • Long-term Stability Needs:
    • Resolving sectarian tensions and restoring public trust in governance structures are essential for a stable Iraq, which currently suffers from crisis in public safety and displaced populations.