Study Notes on Transitions to Democracy in Southern Europe and Beyond

Transitions to Democracy

Southern Europe: Democratizing in the 1970s

  • Unexpected Contrast: A worldwide trend appeared to favor authoritarian regimes, marked by democratic breakdowns in Africa and Latin America. Some theorists argued that stable democracies were a luxury.

  • Surprising Outcomes in Southern Europe: Democratic transitions were rapid in Spain, Portugal, and Greece, marking a significant deviation from the trend of authoritarianism.

    • Quick Democratic Transitions: These countries transitioned to democracy more swiftly than expected.

    • Quick Consolidation: The new democracies consolidated quickly.

    • Economic Recovery: Following these transitions, economic systems were stabilized, contrasting with most authoritarian breakdowns.

Transitions & Consolidation

  • Transition: It starts with the breakdown of an authoritarian regime and concludes with the establishment of a democratic regime.

  • Consolidation: The process by which substantial public support grows for, and compliance with, the new democratic institutions and the established "rules of the game."

Authoritarian Regimes in Southern Europe

  • Comparison to Eastern Europe: Southern Europe’s dictatorships varied significantly from those in Eastern Europe, which saw the communist party maintain control regardless of leadership changes.

  • Types of Regimes:

    • Spain & Portugal: Right-wing dictators, raised through military coups, led each country; their governments were less institutionalized compared to their Eastern European counterparts, being more reliant on a strong president.

    • Greece: Experienced a military dictatorship.

Spain and Franco

  • Failures of Democracy: Prior to Franco, democracy did not succeed in the inter-war years, as leftist parties formed a popular front in the 1930s.

    • Coup d'état: The military’s response was to orchestrate a coup led by General Francisco Franco.

  • Spanish Civil War (1936-1939):

    • Casualties: Approximately 270,000 dead.

    • Aftermath: Post-war, around 28,000 were executed and about 400,000 jailed.

  • Economic Consequences: The civil war severely harmed the economy, complicated by WWII, leading to an additional 200,000 deaths from disease and malnutrition between 1940-1944.

  • Neutral in WWII: While technically neutral during WWII, Franco sympathized with fascist regimes.

Spain and Franco after WWII

  • Isolation Period: Initially isolated from international organizations like the UN (1946-1953) and excluded from the Marshall Plan and NATO.

  • Economic Policies: Franco’s economic incompetence forced him to accept new advisors in the 1950s, leading to economic alignment with the US for anti-Communist reasons.

  • Economic Improvement: The economy grew from 1960 until the oil crisis of 1973, following which workers protested through strikes.

    • ETA Operations: The Basque terrorist group ETA began targeting officials and police for assassination, destabilizing the regime.

  • Health and Succession: Franco’s deteriorating health led him to designate Juan Carlos as his successor in 1969.

The End of Francoism

  • Franco's Death: Franco died in 1975.

  • Juan Carlos’s Role: Juan Carlos assumed leadership, appointing centrist Suarez as the head of government.

    • Electoral Reforms: Suarez enacted a new electoral law establishing universal suffrage, promising national elections quickly, and legalizing political parties, including communists.

    • Political Pardons: Political prisoners were pardoned, enabling a democratic atmosphere.

    • 1977 Elections: A coalition led by Suarez gained a majority, culminating in a new constitution in 1978.

  • Military Response: Discontent within military and former regime leaders instigated coup attempts in 1978 and 1981, both of which were quelled by Juan Carlos.

The Consolidation of Democracy in Spain

  • Decentralization: A significant decentralization initiated regional autonomy movements, important for acknowledging regional and cultural differences.

    • Devolution: Power devolved more successfully to the Catalonia region compared to Basque.

  • 1982 Elections: A socialist party won for the first time since the 1930s, achieving a peaceful transfer of power.

  • International Integration: Spain joined NATO in 1982 and the European Community in 1986, benefiting from substantial development aid, leading to economic integration and exports growth.

  • Transformation: In less than a generation, Spain transitioned from an aging autocracy to a stable democracy.

Portugal and Salazar

  • Initial Context: Portugal underwent a troubled democracy in the interwar period, culminating in a military coup in 1926.

    • Salazar's Rise: Antonio Salazar became finance minister in 1928 and Prime Minister in 1932, maintaining power until 1968.

Portugal and Salazar

  • Isolationist Policies:

    • Salazar emphasized political and economic isolation.

    • Portugal was neutral during WWII and joined NATO post-war, receiving Marshall Plan assistance based on an anti-communism stance.

Portugal and Colonialism

  • Economic Dependency on Colonies: Portugal relied on its colonies for economic income, particularly cash crops from Mozambique and Angola, leading to forced labor and subsequent famines.

    • Colonial Wars: Rebellions in colonies (1961-1963) met with brutal military responses from Salazar.

    • US Support: Salazar framed colonial rebellion as "terrorism" and received US backing during these conflicts.

  • Socioeconomic Impact: Economic pressures forced Salazar to liberalize policies, with one million Portuguese departing for work abroad during the 1960s.

The End of Salazar’s Regime

  • 1974 Coup: Following Salazar's incapacitation in 1968, a military coup led by junior officers occurred in 1974.

    • General Spinola: Appointed president by the new coup leaders, he initiated liberalization measures, including allowing trade unions and nationalizing industries.

  • Colonial Independence: Gonçalves’s regime supported the independence of Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and Angola.

  • Counter-Coup and Further Liberalization: Spinola’s counter-coup failed; radical factions continued to nationalize belongings, leading to economic challenges, especially as former elites fled.

    • 1975 Elections: Political turmoil persisted with moderate and socialist factions vying for control; notable elections resulted in a socialist prime minister.

  • Post-Colonial Economic Crisis: Portugal faced a massive refugee influx from former colonies, economic uncertainty, and the impacts of the oil crisis, prompting US backing for the socialist government.

Greece

  • WWII Context: Greece was invaded by Italy in 1939 and then by Germany in 1941, leading to the establishment of a collaborationist government after King fled.

  • Occupation and Resistance: Under harsh occupation, both communist and non-communist resistance movements arose, leading to tensions and the eventual civil war post-liberation.

    • Civil War Dynamics: British support of anti-communism triggered a violent civil war.

  • Right-wing Governments: Following elections in 1946, right-wing parties regained power amidst lingering tensions from the civil war.

Greece Post-War Landscape

  • US Involvement: The Truman Doctrine defined US support essential to control the Greek civil war by providing substantial aid, thus aiding in victory over the rebels.

  • Political Stability Issues: By the mid-1960s, political development remained sluggish, further complicated by challenges from Cypriot terrorist factions.

    • Political Unrest: The resignation of moderate government leader Georgios Papandreou in 1965 led to chaos.

    • Military Coup: Junior officers overthrew the civilian government just before a scheduled election in 1967, claiming a ‘communist threat’ necessitated their actions.

Military Dictatorship in Greece

  • Authoritarian Regime: Political parties were eradicated, and the monarchy was abolished by the military regime led by Colonel Papadopoulos.

    • Repression: The regime employed the KYP for the systematic arrest of leftist sympathizers and utilized torture.

  • Western Response: Despite the barbarity, Greece remained in NATO, and US aid persisted.

  • Resistance: Open resistance remained limited due to fears of violent reprisal, although notable protests occurred, such as the student uprising at Athens Polytechnic in 1973.

The Collapse of the Military Junta

  • Internal Divisions: New leadership emerged from within the military opposed to Papadopoulos's methods.

    • Cyprus Crisis: Attempts to invade Cyprus resulted in a significant Turkish Counter-Invasion, further destabilizing the regime.

  • Re-establishing Democracy:

    • After the junta’s collapse, conservative civilian government took measures to transition back to democratic governance, releasing political prisoners and amnestying many political offenses.

    • Parliamentary elections in November 1974 led to leftist party success.

    • Greece joined the European Community in 1981.

Democratic Consolidation in Southern Europe

  • Moderation in Transition Process: The moderation observed in the transitional processes of Southern Europe facilitated rapid consolidation.

    • Spanish Example: The 'Pact of Forgetting' reflected collective acknowledgment of past atrocities without retribution.

  • Economic Integration: European Community membership played an important role in mitigating economic problems faced by newly democratic governments.

The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe (1989-1991)

  • Gorbachev's Tenure: Mikhail Gorbachev rose to powers as General Secretary, facing significant challenges including an ongoing economic crisis and Afghanistan involvement.

    • Key Policies:

      • Perestroika (Restructuring): aimed at economic liberalization.

      • Glasnost (Openness): aimed at introducing political freedom and reform.

Hungary (1989)

  • Economic Reforms and Political Shifts: Economic crises led to demands for reform, resulting in partially contested elections and the emergence of a new leadership in 1988 aimed at liberalizing the political landscape.

    • Party Rebranding: The communist party rebranded to the socialist party as multiparty elections were anticipated for 1990.

Poland (1989)

  • Political Reforms: Limited reforms aimed at increasing legitimacy were implemented, though structural economic issues persisted.

    • Round Table Talks: Government officials, Solidarity leaders, and intellectuals convened, resulting in Solidarity’s legalization and scheduling of nationwide elections.

  • Election Outcome: Solidarity won significant seats, leading to the election of the first non-Communist Prime Minister of Eastern Europe in 40 years.

Turning Points

  • Revolutionary Events: Events such as the Tiananmen Square protests in China highlighted the ability of Communist regimes to respond with violence, suggesting the fragility of Eastern European support.

  • East Germany (1989): Relative prosperity and lack of political challenge were disrupted by citizen travel for asylum opportunities.

    • Protests: Growth of the New Forum, campaigning for socialism reform, became a driver of anti-regime actions leading to the end of Honecker.

Czechoslovakia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’

  • Civic Forum Formation: Formed by Václav Havel, mobilized for a general strike that led to the ousting of long-term President Husak and Havel’s election as president.

Romania (1989)

  • Protests: Not a peaceful transfer; Ceaușescu ordered violence against protesters, resulting in his eventual capture and execution following attempts to flee.

  • Subsequent Leadership: Former Communist officials took control through a palace coup following Ceaușescu’s fall.

The German Question: Revisited

  • Unification Negotiations: Tensions surrounded the future of a unified Germany, with Krenz looking to reform the GDR and Kohl advocating for unification.

  • Elections Outcome: First free elections in East Germany produced overwhelming CDU support, which set the groundwork for unification.

The End of the USSR

  • Dissolution Triggers: Movements for independence by Soviet republics intensified after Eastern Europe escaped communist control.

    • Independence Movements: Lithuania, Ukraine, and other states declared independence leading to Gorbachev’s challenges.

  • Failed Coup: Attempted hardliner coup in August 1991 further destabilized Gorbachev’s governance leading to eventual dissolution of the USSR in December 1991.

Theoretical Approaches to the Collapse of Communism

  • Kuran’s Tipping Model: Explores preference falsification and the dynamics behind revolutions, especially the surprising nature of the collapse.

Key Questions on the Collapse**:

  • Inquires why communism fell in the unexpected ways it did.

Preference Falsification Model

  • Individual Choices: Individuals weigh whether to publicly support or oppose the regime, which could affect overall revolutionary outcomes.

  • Revolutionary Threshold:

    • Each person has a threshold for when they will publicly oppose; factors like government uprisings can lower that threshold.

Societal Examples and Dynamics

  • Illustrative Societies (A, B, C): Analyze how different distributions of revolutionary thresholds across various societies lead to either successful revolutions or failure to mobilize.

Predictability of Revolutions

  • The unobservability of private preferences highlights that often latent revolutionary sentiments exist undetected until bundled into large movements due to changing circumstances or perceptions.

Conclusion: Understanding Eastern European Revolutions

  • Surprise of Regime Collapse: Preference falsification indicated that many regimes were more vulnerable than perceived, due to failing conditions that shifted revolutionary thresholds over time.