risk - risk in IR-1
Page 1
Title: Risk Analysis INTS2035 "Risk in IR"
Author: Dr. Grant Dawson
Page 2 - What is Risk?
Open-ended question: What is risk in your opinion?
Reference to a interactive platform for thoughts: https://www.menti.com/al9kvoubtwog
Page 3 - Risk and Rationality
Mary Douglas: “Risk is not a thing, it’s a way of thinking.”
Page 4 - Risk and Emotions
Chris Hadfield: Risks managed with knowledge reduce fear. No astronaut launches with crossed fingers.
Page 5 - Nature of Risk
Risks are not rare; they are part of daily discussions in government and business.
Two sides to risk: upside and downside.
Risk analysis can enhance outcomes (efficiency, return on investment).
Page 6 - Social Construction of Risk
Historical view of risk focused on probability and severity.
Introduced "network risk model" recognizing interconnectivity in decision-making.
Football game analogy: balance between offense and defense in risk management.
Page 7 - Risk in International Relations (IR)
References:
Peter J. Katzenstein & Lucia A. Seybert on uncertainty in IR.
William Clapton on risk in International Relations.
Darryl S. L. Jarvis on theorizing risk and uncertainty.
Page 8 - Defining Risk
Risks are possible harmful events to political/business interests marked by uncertainty.
They must be actively identified or ignored.
The idea that loss could lead to opportunity.
Page 9 - Understanding Risk
Risk probability can be measured and mitigated through analysis.
Political risk is challenging for corporations due to global integration and instability.
Page 10 - Understanding Uncertainty
Variables help analyze risks, but uncertainty limits measurable outcomes.
Knight asserts uncertainty cannot be precisely calculated.
Page 11 - IR, Risk, and Uncertainty
Current international situation marked by interconnectedness.
Past IR studies overlooked uncertainty; recognized both coexist.
Page 12 - IR and Risk Analysis
Risk analysis preferred method despite ignoring uncertainty.
Seybert and Katzenstein’s "protean power" concept highlights agility in responses to uncertainty.
Page 13 - Frank Knight's Contributions
Knight linked risk analysis to future prediction and human fallibility.
Significance of anticipated events in decision-making.
Page 14 - Knight's Concepts
Knight examined risk, probability, and uncertainty, focusing on measurable aspects of risk.
Page 15 - Insights from Knight
Risk's measurability implies controllability; using "Law of Large Numbers" for outcomes.
Page 16 - Knight on Knowledge Limitations
Knight associated risk with probability; uncertainty remains subjective and outside rational deliberation.
Page 17 - Addressing Uncertainty in IR
Seybert and Katzenstein argue distinctions between risk and uncertainty are complex.
Page 18 - Control Power vs. Protean Power
Control power functions under calculable risk; protean power operates in uncertainty.
Page 19 - Nature of Protean Power
Protean power characterized by unknown outcomes, thriving on actors' agility amidst uncertainty.
Page 20 - Politics of Risk
Risk identification and management benefit political actors; termed "riskisation."
Page 21 - Understanding Riskisation
Explore involved actors, norms, values affecting riskisation processes; understand social impacts.
Page 22 - Governance Changes
Importance of how states rescale governance; interactions shape new hierarchies in international arena.
Page 23 - Climate Change: Risk and Opportunity
Climate change as both a threat and opportunity; implications for state sovereignty and governance.
Page 24 - Climate Change Governance
US-led West addressing climate risks; combining leadership with national competitive interests.