Decision Making

Three P Model

  • Prepare
  • Participate
  • Process

Rational Thinking

  • Practically feasible.
  • Possible.
  • Logical.
  • Practical.

Warm-up Activity: Catering Company Management Team

  • Scenario: Received an email from Josie and Collin requesting catering for a party with 60 attendees.
  • Task: Determine what information is needed to decide if you can provide catering.
  • Process:
    • Form groups of four.
    • Individually write down 10 questions.
    • Discuss within the group and finalize the top 10 questions.
  • Example questions:
    • Age group of participants.
    • Gender.

Brainstorming

  • After individual question generation, groups shared their questions to identify unique ones and compile a comprehensive list.
  • This mimics brainstorming in companies to generate ideas and solutions.

Short Break

  • 10-minute break for washroom or drinks.

Rational vs. Irrational Thinking in Business

  • Decisions can be based on feelings/emotions (irrational) or logic (rational).

Intuition

  • Defined as a gut feeling.
  • Intuition can be wrong.
  • If intuition were always right, no one would buy lottery tickets or gamble.

Opportunistic Thinking

  • Making decisions based on immediate opportunities.

Strategic Thinking

  • Long-term planning.
  • Example: Studying for a degree to get a better job in the future.
  • Mismatch in strategic thinking can cause issues (e.g., divorce).

Community-Oriented Thinking

  • Decisions based on societal or community norms.
  • Example: McDonald's offering halal dishes in Malaysia (Muslim country) but not in Thailand (Buddhist country).

Evaluative Decision Making

  • Evaluating different choices, comparing, and doing cost-benefit analyses.

Lobster Plot (Illustrative Example of Decision Making)

  • Initial phase: Generate many creative possibilities when thinking about a problem or solution.
  • Fine-tuning: Rejecting unfeasible options.
  • Filtering: Narrowing down to a few feasible options.
  • Final choices: Typically ending up with three choices, then two, and finally deciding on one.
  • Example: Coffee shop renovation - many design ideas, narrowing down to three, getting quotations, deciding on two, then choosing one based on cost, time, and cost-benefit analysis.
  • Key takeaway: Always consider alternatives instead of sticking to one idea.

Nine Dots Exercise

  • Connect nine dots using four straight lines without lifting the pen.
  • Solution involves thinking outside the box by extending lines beyond the grid of dots.
  • Key takeaway: Think out of the box, but not for every solution. First, look for the original (practical) solution. Only think outside the box when there is no practical or feasible solution.

Decision-Making and Growth

  • Observation: Some average students become successful managers, while some very smart students remain supervisors.
  • Reason: Those who can make decisions quickly and creatively tend to grow faster.
  • Decision-making involves risk.
  • Accept responsibility for mistakes and learn from them.
  • Incremental approach: Make decisions, identify errors, improve, and steadily progress.
  • Smart managers solve problems quickly instead of postponing them.
  • Always aim to be a rational decision-maker unless there is no practical/feasible solution.

Case Study: Flight 1549 (Miracle on the Hudson)

  • Video of the accident case study for Flight 1549, which happened in 01/2009.
  • Key points to identify:
    • Key learning.
  • The flight encountered a flock of Canada geese shortly after takeoff, causing both engines to fail.
  • Captain Chesley Sullenberger (Sully) made a distressed call, considered returning to LaGuardia, and decided to land on the Hudson River.
  • He chose specific words in his announcement to passengers to inspire confidence. "Brace for impact."
  • The first officer, Jeff Skiles, collaborated wordlessly based on long experience.
  • The captain and first officer worked diligently to save every life.
  • All 155 people on board survived.
  • Key takeaways from the case study:
    • Decision-making is crucial.
    • Thinking out of the box can be necessary in critical situations.

Summary

  • Decision-making involves a balance of rational thinking and the ability to think creatively.
  • Learning from mistakes and adapting to new information are essential for growth and success.