1.4 - Voting Behaviour & The Media

Social Factors affecting Voting Behaviour

Social class:

class dealignment - the weakening of the link between a person’s class and the traditional party with which they wouldve been aligned

partisan dealignment - the long-term decline of a voter being loyal to just one party

historically, Labour attracted working class voters and Tories attracted higher earning middle class and upper class voters

recent elections have seen class dealignment as other demographic factors became more important BUT - 48% of Labour voters voted them to “get the Tories out”, undermining the importance of all demographic factors

e.g. in 2024, 36% of AB voters voted Labour and only 26% voted Tories - and 26% of DE voters voted Tories

recent decades have shown partisan dealignment

e.g. only 52% of Tory voters from 2019 supported the party again in 2024

in 2010, Labour won 42% of Scottish votes and SNP won sub 20% but in 2015, Labour only had 24% and SNP had 50%

Age:

younger voters tend to vote more left-wing while older voters tend to vote more right-wing

in 2024 GE, 41% of 18-24 year olds votes Labour and only 5% voted Tories and for 65+ year olds, 43% voted Tories whereas only 23% voted Labour

Safe seats:

some constituencies remain extremely safe seats

e.g. Liverpool Walton has had only Labour MPs since 19

but some dont

e.g. Chichester historically Tory and fell to Lib Dems in 2024

Region:

traditionally, Labour have stronger base in the North (red-wall) and Tories have stronger base in the South (blue-wall)

2019 GE in North-east, Labour won 25% and Tories won 31% of red wall seats

2024 GE in South-east, Labour won 45% and Tories won 20% of blue wall seats

Ethnicity:

traditionally, Labour gain strong support from ethnic minority voters and Tories gain strong support from white voters

however between 2019 and 2024, Tories had a 22% decrease from white voters and Labour had an 18% decrease from ethnic minority voters

however in 2024, 46% of ethnic minority voters voted Labour, compared w 17% for Tories

Political Factors affecting Voting Behaviour

Issue voting:

voters choose the party they trust most on the salient issue of the election

e.g. in 2017, many voters trusted the Tories to “Get Brexit Done”

Valence and governing competence

a valence issue is where all major parties agree on the goal

e.g. improving the NHS

voters therefore focus on which party they trust to deliver that goal

Economic performance:

govts. may be rewarded or punished for their economic record

John Major’s failure to prevent Black Wednesday damaged the Tories reputation for economy and contributed to Blair’s landslide victory in 1997

Leadership and party image:

charismatic or trusted leaders can influence election outcomes

e.g. BoJo in 2019 presented appealing leadership (aided by his role as Mayor) that delivered large majorities

but failures can also influence election outcomes

e.g. in 2005, Blair lost 48 seats due to his decision to invade Iraq in 2003

Media endorsements:

the way newspapers portray parties can influence election outcomes

e.g. in 1997 the Sun, who had previously supported Tories, ran a headline that “The Sun Backs Blair” and Labour went on to win a landslide victory

Tactical voting:

voters can vote to block a disliked party rather than support their preference

e.g. 48% of Labour voters in 2024 said their motivation was to “get the Tories out”

Scandals:

scandals reduce voters’ confidence in a certain party

e.g. Partygate 2022 led to BoJo’s resignation which triggered more instability under Truss and Sunak which triggered heavy Tory losses in 2024

Media

Television news:

primary source of info. for older voters, popularity falling for younger voters

e.g. 85% of 55+ said TV news was their favoured platform

Newspapers:

newspaper circulation has been in decline since 2010

e.g. 2018, its reach was around 40% of the population but by 2023, it was only 26%

Social media:

significant increase in use of social media by young voters

e.g. in 2023, 71% of 16-24 year olds use social media for news
use of social media by adults rose from 44% in 2018 to 52% in 2024

Broadcast debates:

popularity has decreased

e.g. 7m watching in 2019 to 4.8m in 2024

Opinion polls

pros of opinion polls:

guide party campaign strategy

e.g. in 2017, polls showed that Tories lead had narrowed Labour to target youth turnout

provide warning of swings by voters

e.g. polls in 2019 signalled a Conservative surge in many swing seats

help voters judge party momentum

e.g. perception of momentum can influence undecided voters, known as the bandwagon effect

cons of opinion polls:

polls can indicate likely victory of a party which reduces turnout

e.g. turnout in 2024 was so low as polling indicated a likely Labour victory

polls can misestimate parties with shy supporters or turnout differences

e.g. in 2015, the ‘shy Tory’ phenomenon was used to explain why Tories were polling low but went on to win

polls can create self-fulfilling prophecies

e.g. in 2010 polling coverage amplified small leads, skewing voters’ perception

the media is important:

agenda setting as newspaper front pages shape what voters think on particular issues

e.g. the Daily Mail headline ‘Enemies of the People’ referring to the UK Supreme Court judges on Miller vs Brexit Secretary 2017 created huge debate on judiciary role

televised debates can change perceptions of leaders

e.g. Nick Clegg’s success in 2010 led to him being called ‘Super Nick’

investigative journalism has uncovered scandals that impact elections

e.g. Partygate led to BoJo’s resignation which had a huge role in 2024 Tory defeat

the media is not important:

televised debates

e.g. despite Nick Clegg’s success in 2010, his party didn’t have a huge success in the election

social media is more relied on than traditional media

e.g. nearly ½ of UK adults use social media for news, no longer limited just to young voters

party loyalty reduces media influence

e.g. in 2024, British Election Study data found 64% of voters identified with a political party

2024 General Election

Labour victory because - Tory dissaray as 3 PMs, Partygate and Truss mini-budget economic crisis - voters desire for change - Labour’s repositioned platform emphasising public service investment

Key voting patterns - growing dealignment as tactical voting since removing the Tories rather than enthusiasm for Labour - new partys surging as Reform UK got 14%

impact on parties:

Labour - strong majority but limited mandate given modest vote share
Tories - identity crisis, pressure from Reform on the right
Lib Dems - re-emerged as a significant 3rd force
Reform UK - exposed FPTP’s disproportionality dramatically