Regime Change and Democratization

Regime Change

  • Definition: Regime change refers to the process of altering the political structure of a state, typically through negotiations and compromise rather than outright revolution.

  • Characteristics:

    • In regime change, much of the old regime remains intact.

    • Security forces, including the army and police, are particularly resistant to removal.

Key Role of Military

  • Dynamics within Authoritarian Regimes:

    • Two factions often exist: hard-liners and soft-liners.

    • Leaders may offer political freedoms to soft-liners in exchange for maintaining order, immunity from prosecution, and various privileges.

  • Military's Threat to Transition:

    • The military poses a significant risk to the democratic transition and consolidation process.

    • Generals may usurp decision-making authority from the civilian government.

    • The military often acts as a gatekeeper to political stability.

State and Civil Society

  • State Institutions:

    • Institutional frameworks must be established to legally constrain state bureaucrats.

    • Government must be responsive to civil society demands.

    • Accountability: Lawmakers and elites need to be held accountable to their constituents and each other.

Case Study: Chile

  • Historical Context:

    • Chile was democratic from 1823 to 1973.

    • Copper exports significantly fueled the economy, contributing to 24% of global copper production.

Overthrow of Democracy

  • Chilean President Allende:

    • Elected in 1971 but faced economic challenges and social unrest.

    • His government was ultimately overthrown in 1973 with U.S. support.

  • Military Action:

    • The Chilean army besieged the Moneda Palace on September 11, 1973.

    • Resulted in significant fatalities: approximately 30,000 arrested and 3,000 killed during the following dictatorship.

Gen. Augusto Pinochet's Regime

  • Aftermath of the Coup:

    • Pinochet's government initiated wide-ranging crackdowns.

    • Arrests and violence targeted students, academics, teachers, union organizers, and activists.

    • The regime favored market-driven policies influenced by the Chicago School of economics, emphasizing full private ownership.

1988 Plebiscite

  • A nationwide referendum was held to determine whether Pinochet would remain in power.

  • Results: The NO campaign won decisively (55.99% to 44.01%).

    • Slogan: "La alegría ya viene" ("Joy is coming").

    • The NO campaign engaged in extensive grassroots mobilization, achieving a 92% voter registration rate.

Transition and Compromise

  • Military officials, including Pinochet, were given immunity from prosecution as part of the transition agreements.

  • Pinochet remained Chief of Armies from 1990 to 1998, later arrested in London in 2000 for crimes against humanity.

Aung San Suu Kyi's Political Journey

  • Background:

    • Founded and led the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 1988.

    • Won 1990 elections with a significant majority, but results were annulled by the military.

    • Imprisoned for 15 years for her pro-democracy activism, released in 2010.

  • Political Re-emergence:

    • Under NLD, advocated for changes in the political landscape, won a majority in 2012 elections.

    • Became opposition leader and later, elected as the State Counsellor in 2016 (akin to a Prime Minister).

  • Controversies:

    • Faced criticism for her inadequate response to military operations against the Rohingya Muslims.

Recent Developments in Myanmar

  • 2020: NLD wins the majority in national elections.

  • 2021: The military stages a coup, arrests Suu Kyi, and commands significant support from China.

  • Consequences:

    • Suu Kyi sentenced to 33 years in prison, with a broad crackdown on democracy advocates following the coup.