Lula's Second Act: Hunter and Power Analysis

Lula's Second Act: Key Points

Introduction

  • In the 30 October 2022 runoff, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party - PT) defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, marking a shift to the left in Latin America.
  • The election result was close, with Lula winning 50.9% to Bolsonaro's 49.1%.
  • Lula's victory was by over 2.1 million votes; however, it was the closest presidential race in Brazil's history by percentage.
  • Lula secured 48.2% in the first round, while Bolsonaro got 43.2%.
  • The concurrent elections for governorships and the National Congress showed gains for the political right, complicating the narrative of a simple leftward shift.
  • Constitutionalism prevailed, affirming electoral integrity and military impartiality.

Key Realities of the 2022 General Elections

  • Conservative forces performed well overall.
  • Brazil’s party system has changed significantly.
  • The political center has been largely abandoned.
  • The traditional two-party system rivalry between PT and PSDB has collapsed.
  • Conditions that supported Lula's governance in his first two terms are no longer present.
  • The 2022 campaign was unique as a former president faced an incumbent.
  • Lula and Bolsonaro dominated the race, limiting opportunities for other candidates.
  • They claimed 92% of the first-round vote, compared to an average of 77% in previous elections.
  • The distance between the second- and third-place finishers was an astonishing 39 percentage points, the highest ever recorded.
  • Brazil has a fragmented party system, making the dominance of two candidates extraordinary.
  • Voter polarization was pronounced.
  • Surveys showed 40-50% would never vote for Lula, while 45-55% felt the same about Bolsonaro.
  • Bolsonaro represented hard-right nationalism and conservative values.
  • Lula promoted progressive social values and restoring Brazil’s international voice.

Challenges and Congressional Composition

  • Bolsonaro was damaged by his erratic rhetoric and handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Lula was tarnished by his imprisonment on corruption charges.
  • Both candidates campaigned on defeating the other, leading to extreme polarization.
  • The election produced a divided Congress.
  • The Chamber of Deputies will have 23 parties, with high polarization.
  • Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) became the largest in both the Chamber and Senate.
  • The PT is the second-place party.
  • The PSDB performed poorly, declining significantly.
  • Lula will begin his term with a coalition comprising just under a quarter of the lower house and under a seventh of the upper house.
  • Many Bolsonaro allies won in lower-house races, including controversial figures like Eduardo Pazuello and Ricardo Salles.
  • Lula will face mixed support among the country’s newly elected governors.

State-Level Results

  • Of the twenty-seven governors, ten backed Lula, fourteen supported Bolsonaro, and three did not take a public stance.
  • The PT held steady with four governorships.
  • The Uni~ao Brasil also elected four gubernatorial candidates.
  • Bolsonaro allies won in important states like Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.
  • Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minister, won in S~ao Paulo.
  • Pro-Bolsonaro politicians won the “triple crown” of S~ao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro.
  • The October 2022 elections arguably saw the strongest overall performance by the political right in forty years.
  • This may have discouraged challenges to the presidential result, as right-of-center politicians felt confident in the electronic voting system that elected them.

Bolsonaro's Governance

  • The elections followed four years of chaotic governance under Bolsonaro.
  • Bolsonaro clashed with institutions like Congress, the Federal Supreme Court (STF), and the TSE.
  • He sowed doubt about Brazil’s electronic voting system.
  • Relations with governors were tense, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • He sacked officials who produced data he disliked.
  • Bolsonaro’s tenure was marked by irresponsible handling of COVID-19, erratic economic management, increased Amazonian deforestation, loosened gun limits, and international isolation.
  • He increased the presence of military officers in the civilian bureaucracy.
  • Policy failures included deteriorating health and education, with budget cuts to universities and research infrastructure.
  • Bolsonaro did not dismantle Brazil's democratic institutions.
  • His executive-legislative relations were poor, and Congress overrode his vetoes at a record rate.
  • The STF ruled against his government, becoming more autonomous.
  • The armed forces did not intervene to extend his rule.
  • Media scrutiny exposed misconduct.
  • The electoral calendar remained in force.

Factors Contributing to Bolsonaro's Loss

  • The runoff vote was close, with Lula winning by only 1.8 percentage points.
  • Lula was more popular among women, the poor, the less educated, Afro-Brazilians, and Catholics.
  • Bolsonaro was stronger among men, more affluent and educated Brazilians, whites, and evangelicals.
  • Bolsonaro's loss as an incumbent is noteworthy, as reelection is common in Latin America.
  • Bolsonaro entered 2022 with low approval ratings due to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Brazil suffered about 700,000 COVID-19 deaths, with one of the world’s highest deaths-per-million rates.
  • A Senate committee recommended criminal charges against him for his pandemic response.
  • The economy did not help Bolsonaro, with weak GDP growth, rising poverty, and failure to pass economic reforms.
  • Bolsonaro’s strategic mistake was his failure to expand his base.
  • Spending measures before the election appeared as ploys to win votes and were inconsistent with his criticism of pork-barrel politics.
  • Surveys consistently showed Lula leading, and Bolsonaro did not soften his approach.

Factors Contributing to the Tight Race

  • Bolsonaro had a loyal base of supporters, including anti-petista voters, nationalists, authoritarians, and evangelical Christians.
  • Evangelicals remained loyal, influenced by Michelle Bolsonaro.
  • Lula faced vulnerabilities due to his image of corruption and the economic recession under Dilma Rousseff.
  • Bolsonaro played the corruption card effectively in presidential debates.
  • Lula ran as “not Bolsonaro,” emphasizing his past economic successes and high approval ratings.
  • He chose Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate to allay concerns from the business community and middle class.
  • Lula’s Bolsa Família program solidified his support among low-income voters.
  • Lula improved the PT’s performance in larger states like S~ao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
  • Bolsonaro's well-timed federal largesse drove a last-minute upswing in support.

A Shifting Political Landscape

  • Brazil's long cycle of economic stability and social inclusion from 1994 to approximately 2014 was based on a duopoly in presidential competition between PSDB and PT.
  • The rise of Bolsonaro crowded out the PSDB.
  • Competition became a Bolsonaristas versus PT matter.
  • Any politician able to preserve Bolsonaro’s support base will be well-positioned to challenge the PT in 2026.
  • The PT cannot rely on Lula’s victory and needs to evolve.
  • Structural shifts in the economy require the party to find new support beyond its industrial base and the Northeast.
  • The party needs to develop new leaders to succeed Lula.
  • The military did not intervene to support Bolsonaro, falling in line with the TSE’s decision.

Lula's Third Tour

  • Lula’s election by a razor-thin margin poses challenges for governing in a polarized environment.
  • Executive power allows Lula to act unilaterally on some fronts, but broader initiatives require legislative support.
  • Building a broad multiparty coalition in Congress will be difficult.
Reasons for Difficulty in Coalition Building
  • 1.1. The mathematics of congressional support are narrow.
  • 2.2. Many new federal legislators were elected from Bolsonaro-supporting states.
  • 3.3. Coalition-building is easier for popular presidents, which depends on external factors like interest rates and commodity prices.
  • Economic conditions are unlikely to generate the support that pulled parties to his side twenty years ago.
  • Lula could surprise observers, but his reliance on nostalgia may haunt him.