consequences of civil war

● government victory

● First is a military win by the government. Examples of this: 1. In Khmer Rouge in 1978-79, after pulling out of peace talks in 1991, the rebels decided to attack the Cambodian government. 2. The conservative government of Colombia defeated the liberal rebels in 1958, 10 years after the Civil war. On the other hand, it is important to know that after this conflict, the losing liberal rebels actively joined the political system and shared power with the winning conservatives. A final example of a government victory at the end of a Civil War includes the losing Biafran seccessionists that occurred from 1967-70. This vicious conflict led to cleanse of genocide that did not leave the Nigerian government looking very pleasant to its citizens. The Civil War resulted in a few decades of continued social and political uproar.

● rebel victory

● This results in the rebel group removing the sitting government in power and taking over entirely. This outcome is shown in Uganda from 1980 to 1986 when Yoweri Museveni's rebels, called the National Resistance Army, defeated the Ugandan government and took reign itself with Museveni as the new president of Uganda. Additionally, a victory was won for communist rebels over the Cuban government of Fulgencio Batista leading to a few decades of rule under the Communist's rebel leader, Fidel Castro. Lastly, Sandanistas defeated Nicaraguan government in 1978 to 1979. However, their reign did not go on challenged for too long because people loyal to the Somoza family coordinated their own rebellion one year later and the contra rebels started an armed the challenge.

● peace agreement

● These are compromising agreements that bring about a forever end to conflicts between rebels and the government. In order to qualified to be a peace agreement, it must at least address the main reasons why the war started in the first place. One example of this was the Dayton Accords that eliminated the issues between the Bosnian government and rebels supporting Serb and Croat populations from this newly independent country.

● That was a long running Civil War between the SPLA (Sudan People's Liberation Army) and the Sudanese government resulted in a understood peace agreements that eventually led to an electoral public vote and the independence of South Sudan 6 years later. Lastly, another example of a war ending with a peace agreement is the Rwandan government versus Rwandan Patriotic Front (1991-93).

● stalemates / ceasefires

● Last but not least, ceasefires are agreements between some or all of the warring participants who lay down the arms for at least a little while usually with an outlook towards negotiating a more permanent settlement. Wars can conclude with these ceasefires if the participants decide to not take up arms again but are not completely capable of reaching a peace agreement that completely addresses the conflicts causing the conflict to begin with. Stalemates, however, do not involve a lot of communication between the participants. As a matter of fact, they are simply situations where the fighting calms down. Examples of stalements/ceasefires are: The Nicaraguan government versus Contras in 1982 to 1990 (ceasefire), the Philippines government versus New People's Army in 1972 to 1992 (stalemate) and the Indian government versus Kashmiris in 1990 to 2005ish (stalemate).

● Civil War recurrence

● One reason as to why it's important to describe the different weighs a Civil wars end is because these outcomes affect the chances of lasting peace prevailing compared to the risk of a civil war occurring again. This is called Civil War recurrence. Civil War recurrence can be defined in two ways:

● The renewal of conflict inside a country that experienced war before which could be conflict between the government and any rebel group

● The renewal of issues between the same participants. Let's say there is a peace agreement but the rebels who are part of that agreement decided they didn't like the agreement anymore or were worried about another possible attack from the government to eliminate them forever. Thus, the rebels will then take up arms again aiming to preempt an attack by the government.

● Examples:

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● In the Nicaragua War, Sandinista rebels won the first saga of this war but were challenged afterwards by the former government who became a rebel group in the second saga of the war. Therefore the governments and rebels in this situation switched positions in this recurring war.

● 2. Angola

● Studies have shown that Civil war is usually reoccur when a government military wins or in a peace agreement that lacks peacekeepers to make sure that the rebels on the government keep their promises in the peace agreement. Other factors are fewer casualties in the first saga of the conflict, longer duration of the first saga of the conflict, slow or no economic recovery after the conflict and elections occurring within one to two years of peacetime after the conflict or termination.

● Important! Components that make a war reoccur less likely are wars that involve fewer casualties in the beginning saga of the conflict or lasted longer. Countries who flourish economically after the war are also less likely to have a war again.

● other consequences

● A few factors from these conditions that affect the risk of recurrence are also immediate consequences of the war itself. How many combatants are killed and how many non-combatant civilians that are subjected to non-lethal and lethal violence impacts future grievances and the intent for revenge. Third party involvement in the war are also more severe because of the resultant influx of often greater and heavier weapon stocks and the ability of combatants to fight lengthy wars when they accept external support. Conflicts dealing with territorial control also most often result in higher deaths for civilians especially. Financial losses suffered due to little productivity and the elimination of infrastructure needed for trade and production of goods are also a consequence of conflict. It can take even decades for an economy to overcome this after a civil War. During this time, people can become gradually agitated about the persistent lack of economic prospects, possibly making them want to go to war again. Lastly, political uproar, specifically in terms of wide uncertainty over who should hold positions of power in government, usually comes from the conflict. Elections are now risky because former combatants question their loyalty to refrain from taking up arms again and the general population may not like for anyone to run for office due to wartime abuses. Some studies even show that an increased risk of prosperous or at least attempted military coups German of Civil War can happen and this only further ads to the chaos in government institutions.

● Another consequence of Civil War that are worth considering because they can also have a long-lasting consequences for economic and security development in conflict affected countries and neighboring countries are population displacement. Population displacement drives thousands, and even millions in some severe cases, of people from their homes which can put a huge economic and social pressure on neighboring countries or other countries hosting refugees as well as the non-governmental and international organizations that aim to help these people in need. Those who leave their homes but don't leave their home countries can also be a victim to uncertainty and abuses in unknown parts of the country. In addition, this population displacement can have security challenges with an elevated risk of violence refugee hosting locality with the violence usually being targeted at those displaced people.

● Similar to economic losses mentioned earlier, Civil wars tend to cause damage to infrastructure (schools, roads, hospitals, bridges, etc). Rebuilding the structures is very costly related to resources and time and the loss of shelter and essential services (health care, educational access, etc) that can have lasting repercussions for decades. Civil wars can even create exacerbate issues like nutrition and food insecurity and even the spread of diseases. Cholera is manifested due to lack of proper sanitation so it is an unfortunate common occurrence in refugee camps and other conflicts areas. The environments of vulnerable security and instability that is brought about in post-conflict and conflict environments can also lead themselves to the birth of exacerbation of criminal activity (the movement of illicit weapons, drug and human trafficking, etc). Because security forces are trying to tame the pressing threat from the rebel groups or are reforming their activities and personnel after the conflicts, criminals in areas affected by conflict in the States have the ability to operate with minimal hindrances and at times are in direct coordination with the rebel groups during the Civil wars. Lastly, a not often talked about consequence of civil wars, is the hurt conflicts put on the environment. Ecosystems and essential habitats can be polluted and destroyed. Governments a lot of times try to enhance productivity to help their war effort without consideration for the effects (deforestation) this might have on the land water and air. Environmental preservation and protections has often been recommended for countries recovering from conflicts while land mines left behind after conflicts cease, become a severe threat to animals and humans alike.

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