Public Opinion: A collection of popular views about something (person, event, idea).
Beliefs: Closely held ideas supporting values and expectations about life and politics.
Attitudes: Preferences formed based on life experiences and values, affected by personal beliefs.
Political Socialization: The process of understanding and joining a country’s political world, starting at a young age.
Socialization Agents: Sources of political information that help citizens understand how to act and make decisions in their political system. Examples: family, school, peers, community, media.
The Media as an Agent of Socialization:
Covert Content: Political information presented as neutral, but is not.
Overt Content: Information where the writer or publication clearly states one side of a political debate.
Framing: Choosing how information is presented, which can affect how it is perceived.
Ideology: A set of beliefs and attitudes about government and how it should act. Depends on attitudes, beliefs, and prioritization of each belief.
Ideological Spectrum: Ranges from left-wing (Communism, Socialism, Liberal) to right-wing (Conservative, Authoritarianism, Fascism).
Ideologies
Fascism: Total control of the country by the ruling party or leader.
Authoritarianism: Leaders control politics, military, government, and often the economy.
Traditional Conservatism: Supports the authority of the monarchy and the church, believing government provides law and order.
Modern Conservatism: Elected government guards individual liberties, prefers smaller government with less economic intervention, allowing the market to determine prices and wages.
Classical Liberalism: Belief in individual liberties and rights, free will, and equality with minimal government intervention.
Modern Liberalism: Focuses on equality, supports government intervention to promote equality.
Socialism: Government uses its authority to promote social and economic equality.
Communism: Promotes common ownership of all property, means of production, and materials, ideally managed by the government.
How is Public Opinion Measured?
Straw Polls: Informal polls collecting opinions from a non-random group.
Political Polling: A science using statisticians and methodologists.
Random Sampling: Selecting a limited number of people from the population with an equal chance of being chosen.
Representative Sample: A group whose demographic distribution mirrors the overall population.
Margin of Error: A statistical measure of how far poll results may be from the actual opinion of the total population. Lower margin of error means a more predictive poll.
Sampling Error: Error due to sampling issues.
Problems in Polling
Exit Polls: Conducted in person as voters leave polling places.
Leading Questions: Questions worded to lead respondents to a specific answer.
The Bradley Effect: Voters are afraid to admit they would not vote for a black man because it would appear politically incorrect and racist.
The Trump Effect: Voters are reluctant to express their support for Donald Trump due to social desirability bias.
Push Polls: Political campaign information presented as polls.
What Does the Public Think?
Ideological Shift: More likely to occur if a voter’s ideology is weakly supported.
Heuristics: Relying on shortcuts or rules of thumb (cues) for decision-making. Political party membership, gender, race, socioeconomic status, and interest-group affiliation can serve as heuristics.
Research: Learning background information before making a decision.
Political Culture: Shared history, tradition, values, beliefs, and attitudes about government.
Political Elites and Celebrities: Important political opinion leaders.
Opinions About Politics and Policies: Influenced by political divisions (Democrats vs. Republicans), third-party opinions, independent opinions, generational/cultural shifts, changing demographics, and social, economic, and foreign policies.
Public Opinion and Political Institutions
Public Approval Ratings:
The President: Average approval rating starts at 66% but drops to 53% by the end of the first term. President Trump has experienced significantly lower approval ratings than average
Congress: Historically receives lower approval ratings than presidents. As of August 2015, public approval of Congress was around 20%.
The Supreme Court: Generally enjoys less visibility, leading to more stable but less frequent polling results.
The Effects of Public Opinion
Delegate Representation: Assumes the politician is in office to be the voice of the people.
Polling Increase: Because politicians, like the president, operate in permanent campaign mode.
Favorability Polls: Measures how positively voters feel about a candidate.
Bandwagon Effect: Increased media coverage of candidates who poll high.
Horserace Coverage: Media calls out every candidate’s move throughout the presidential campaign.
Public Opinion and Government: The understated impact of public opinion.
Key Terms
Agent of Political Socialization: A person or entity that teaches and influences others about politics.
Bandwagon Effect: Increased media coverage of candidates who poll high.
Bradley Effect: The difference between a poll result and an election result in which voters gave a socially desirable poll response rather than a true response that might be perceived as racist
Classical Liberalism: A political ideology based on belief in individual liberties and rights and the idea of free will, with little role for government.
Communism: A political and economic system promoting common ownership to prevent exploitation and create an equal society.
Covert Content: Biased information presented as unbiased.
Diffuse Support: The widespread belief that a country and its legal system are legitimate.
Exit Poll: An election poll taken by interviewing voters as they leave a polling place
Fascism: A political system of total control by the ruling party or political leader
Favorability Poll: Shortcuts or rules of thumb for decision making
Horserace Coverage: Day-to-day media coverage of candidate performance in the election
Leading Question: A question worded to lead a respondent to give a desired answer
Margin of Error: A political ideology that prioritizes individual liberties, preferring a smaller government that stays out of the economy
Modern Liberalism: A political ideology focused on equality and supporting government intervention in society and the economy if it promotes equality
Overt Content: Political information whose author makes clear that only one side is presented
Political Culture: The prevailing political attitudes and beliefs within a society or region
Political Elite: A political opinion leader who alerts the public to changes or problems
Political Socialization: The process of learning the norms and practices of a political system through others and societal institutions
Public Opinion: A collection of opinions of an individual or a group of individuals on a topic, person, or event
Push Poll: Politically biased campaign information presented as a poll in order to change minds
Random Sample: A limited number of people from the overall population selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen
Representative Sample: A group of respondents demographically similar to the population of interest
Socialism: A political and economic system in which government uses its authority to promote social and economic equality, providing everyone with basic services and equal opportunities and requiring citizens with more wealth to contribute more
Straw Poll: An informal and unofficial election poll conducted with a non-random population
Theory of Delegate Representation: A theory that assumes the politician is in office to be the voice of the people and to vote only as the people want
Traditional Conservatism: A political ideology supporting the authority of the monarchy and the church in the belief that government provides the rule of law