Unit 2A Readings

Pages 197-201

People’s political opinions start with what they learned from their parents.
These principles include a level of trust in others, class, racial and ethnic identity.
Personality traits can develop may shape political behavior.
Ideas learned through childhood continue to shape a person’s political opinion throughout their lives.
Socialization also impacts a person’s political opinion.
All kinds of events can capture a person’s attention and make them revise their understandings of the politics and the role of government.
Individual experiences can shape beliefs such as an individuals’s support for same-sex marriage based off of how many LGBTQ people they know.
Beliefs can also be shaped by major national events such as 9/11 or WWII.
A president’s popularity is affected by scandals involving their administration (Ex. Nixon’s Watergate Scandal)
Changes in opinions are also more likely for people who don’t have strong beliefs than people who do hold strong beliefs.
Individuals’ opinions are also influenced by social categories such as gender, race, income and level of education. These are called cohort effects.
Political scientists argue that when people decide between being a Republican or Democrat they think about which demographic group are within each party.
Public opinion at the individual level is drive by many factors, notably life experiences and current events as we perceive them.

Pages 190-196 & 201-205

190-196

Some research indicates that the public often has no firm opinions about government policy and are easily swayed by candidates, advocacy groups, or the media.
Public opinion describes what the population thinks about politics and the government.
Public opinion matters because of:
- Citizens' political actions
- Ex. A Democrat is more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate than a Republican candidate.
- If we want to understand an individual’s behavior or analyze broader political outcomes we must have good data on p/o.
- Examining p/o helps explain the behavior of political representatives
- Politicians looks at p/o to determine what citizens want them to do.
- We can see how congressional representatives are reluctant to cast votes that are inconsistent with their constituents’ opinions.
- Public opinion is key to understanding what motivates citizens and political officials
- It can shed light on the reasons for specific policy outcomes.
- Ex. Changes in policy mood -- the public’s demand for new policies -- are likely related to changes in government spending.
Modern theories of public opinion distinguish that there are two types of opinion.
The first kind of opinions are broad expressions like how a person thinks and wants from the government.
Some of these beliefs are obviously political such as party identification, liberal or conservative ideology, judgements whether elected officials lose touch with citizens.
The average person doesn’t maintain a set of fully formed opinions on all political topics.
Most Americans’ political judgements are latent opinions.
The difficulty of measuring public opinion has nothing to do with people being indecisive but rather it reflects the reality of how the average person thinks and develops opinions.

201-205

Public opinion at the individual level is driven by many factors, notably life experiences and current events as we perceive them.
Public opinion comes from mass surveys. (usually in-person or phone interviews)
The aim of a mass survey is to measure the attitudes of a population or group of people.
Since interviewing the entire population of a group is impossible, surveys typically involve samples of hundred to thousands or random individuals.
An attraction to mass surveys is that they can provide accurate estimates of public opinion for a grand population.
An alternate way of measuring p/o uses focus groups.
Focus groups allow the interviewees to answer questions in their own words.
Larger scale surveys such as the ANES (American National Election Study) which is conducted annually, uses various question types.
An issue scale is used for a range of topics, two opposing statements given and the respondents are asked to agree with whichever is closest to their views.
Surveys like the GSS or ANES will ask about 100 questions related to issues and candidates, along with additional questions about the respondents personal information.
Problems within measuring p/o can pertain to the wording of the questions.

Pages 206-211

A tactic for making a random sample is to choose households at random from census data and send interviewers out for face-to-face meetings or to contact people by telephone using random digit dialing.
Though in theory they seem great, in reality they are quite difficult to become successful as the individual may refuse to take the survey if they wish to.
Many organizations use Internet polling, although the results maybe doubted by the quality of the samples they produce.
Another problem with surveys is that people are sometimes reluctant to reveal their opinions. This is referred to as social desirability bias.
Pollsters will use various techniques to attempt to solve this problem like asking questions in a multiple ways.
The problem isn’t that pollsters are dishonest or inept but rather that p/o is difficult to measure.
Early theories of p/o held that the average American’s views on politics were incomplete and inaccurate.
Misperceptions may result when respondents form opinions on the basis of whatever considerations come to mind.
When asked for an opinion, respondents have no time to think their answer through or do research on the topic mentioned.
Some participants will make up their answers on the spot as to no seem ill informed.
Respondents’ ability to express specific opinions have something to do with their daily life.
Surveys taken after a major event may influence a respondent’s opinion.
These opinions are drive overall support for government action and serve as the basis for opinions on more specific policy questions.

Pages 315-320

Voting and other forms of political participation are completely optional to the individual.
Even if you don’t learn anything about the candidates to may vote anyway so the paradox of voting is: Why does anyone vote, given that voting is costly and the chances of affecting the outcome are small?
In normal elections, when congressional reelection rates are high, voters will use cues that focus on the candidates themselves.
This goes in hand with what Tip O’Neill, Speaker of House (1977-1987) said “all politics is local”
It also explains why electoral coattails are usually weak in American elections and why many Americans cast split tickets rather than straight tickets.
“Wave” elections generally occur when a large group of voters vote against incumbents because of poor economic decisions, political scandals, or a costly war.
Even in wave election reelection rates for Congress are generally high.
The reelection rates for Congress are high because the members work to insulate themselves from electoral challenges through tactics.
In a wave election, voters don’t suddenly become informed they may just switch to a different set of voting cues depending on the circumstances of the election.

Supplemental Readings

Crash Course - Public Opinion

What is public opinion?
- “How a nation population collectively views vital policy issues and evaluates political leaders.”
Why is public opinion important in the US?
- Because it’s a democracy, meaning that it’s ruled by the people
Where did the founding fathers give the average man direct influence? Why?
- The House of Representatives because the view that ignorant masses shouldn’t be fully trusted won out over the anti-federalists.
Explain “rational ignorance.”
- Given the high cost to stay informed it seems better to just be less informed.
What is collective opinion?
- \
What is the rational public idea?
Give an example of Presidents Obama or Clinton following public opinion.
How do politicians often use public opinion polling?
Describe a sampling error.
What is selection bias? Why is this a problem with online polls?
What does it matter WHEN a question is asked?
Are exit polls reliable?
What is the problem with ambiguous or poorly worded questions?
How much do you think public opinion should matter in how the country is governed? Why?
Do you think politicians know what citizens really want?

Crash Course - Shaping Public Opinion

What are political ideologies? What is an aggregate?
What are the three main influences on our political opinions? Which do you these three do you feel as the most influence over you?
What is an example of government inactivity?
How does government actively shape public opinion?
What is a bully pulpit? And how did T. Roosevelt (or any president) use the media to his favor?
What is the Clinton War Room? What is its purpose?
How effective are public opinion polls?
What is a Video News Release? And discuss its effectiveness? Can you think of an example (other than the one mentioned) of a Video News Release?
What two historical events caused massive distrust between the American people and her government?
What does Craig mention as the biggest influence on public opinion?
What is an interest group? How effective are interest groups?
Who are Harry and Louise? What impact did they have on public opinion?
What is a Think Tank? Heritage Foundation and Brookings Institute (square the liberal and circle the conservative group)
What role does the media play in public opinion? Why is the media considered the most powerful?
What is the main way the media shapes public opinion?
What is priming? What is framing? What is the purpose of these techniques? Give examples of it.
Are our opinions solely our own or did someone or something develop it for us?

Making It Easier to Vote v. Guarding Against Voter Fraud

Voter ID Readings (1 and 2)

Crash Course - How Voters Decide

What are the three main factors that influence how a person will vote?
What is party loyalty? Why is it considered by political scientists to be the single largest predictor?
What is an example of psychological factor that can influence party loyalty?
What is polarization? What is an example of an increase in polarization?
What is the connection between party ideals and personal ideology?
How does past experience with political leaders reflect the party loyalty argument? Provide examples from both parties.
What do political scientists and your teacher say about candidate characteristics as a factor for influencing your vote?
List the obvious candidate characteristics that attract voters. List the not-so-obvious.
What one characteristic is supposed to make a difference in how the voter will vote?
What personality virtues do Americans also look for in voting?
What are the two types of issue voting?
What is retrospective voting? How does someone find out about a politician's previous voting record?
What is prospective voting? What is the problem with prospective voting?
Define spatial issues. What is an example of a spatial issue and why?
Define valence issues. What is an example of valence issues and why?
What other factors could influence the way a voter votes?
What is the Bradley effect?
Which of the factors is the best when predicting election outcomes? Why is this not always the case?
What is the benefit of having a well-informed electorate?

Vocab

==Political Socialization -== The process by which an individual’s political opinions are shaped by other people and the surrounding cultures.

==Public opinion -== Citizen’s views on politics and government actions.

==Liberal or Conservative Ideology -== A way of describing political beliefs in terms of a position on the spectrum running from liberal to moderate to conservative.

==Latent Opinion -== An opinion formed on the pot, when it is needed.

==Mass surveys -== A way to measure public opinion by interviewing a large sample of the population.

==Population -== The group of people whom a researcher or pollster wants to study, such as evangelicals, senior citizens, or Americans.

==Sample -== Within a population, the group of people surveys in order to gauge the whole population’s opinion. Researchers use samples because it would be impossible to interview the entire population.

==Random Sample -== A subsection of population chosen to participate in a survey through a selection process in which every member has an equal chance to be chosen.

==Ideological Polarization -== The effect on public opinion when many citizens move away from moderate positions and towards the end of the political spectrum.

==Paradox of Voting -== The question of why citizens vote even though their individual votes stand little chance of changing the election outcome.

==Coattails -== The idea that a popular president can generate additional support for candidates affiliated with their party.

==Split Tickets -== A ballot in which a voter selects candidates from more than one political party.

==Straight Tickets -== A ballot on which a voter selects candidates from only one political party.