Chapter 7 : Voting & Election

  Elections in the United States

  • Presidential elections: held every four years on the first Tuesday in November following a Monday

  • Congressional elections:held every two years on the first Tuesday in November following a Monday

    Example :

  • 2024: November 5

  • 2042 :November 4

  • 2648: November 7

  • 3892: November 8

Presidential versus Parliamentary system

  • In the parliamentary system we do not know when the next election will be held. However, elections have to be held within a certain number of years.

  • The U.S. system { presidential } provides more stability

  • Parliamentary system allows the political system to respond quicker to dissatisfaction with the government

  Elections in the United States

  • Most places in the United States use plurality/first past-the- post voting. Whoever receives the most votes wins the elections.

  • Electoral rules { Louisiana runoff, Maine ranked choice voting, Nebraska, and Maine splitting electoral votes }

  • Majority party protects itself by adjusting voting rules

  • Different types of ballots

  • straight-ticket option on ballot

  • More than 30 stated elect judges

  • Drain Inspectors

  • Coroners

Why do people vote ?

  • Founding elections tend to have a very high voter turnout

  • Some important factors that explain different voter turnouts include:

  • Socioeconomic status

  • political environment

  • State electoral laws

Socioeconomic Status

Those with higher socioeconomic status are more likely to vote for :

  • higher income

  • higher levels of education

  • older people are also more likely to vote

  Population with tertiary education

  • Compared to most countries in the organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    ( OECD ), the United States has a very highly educated population.

  • Based on this, we would expect voters turnout rate in the United States to be among the highest

  Turnout in the United States

  • However, the United States have a lower voter turnout compared to many other countries

  • the turnout of the voting age population in the United States for presidential elections is between 50-60 %

  • It’s much lower for midterms elections

State Electoral Laws

  • in the United States, it’s up to the states to hold elections

  • Easier to vote in some states in comparison to other

  • After the 2020 elections, several states. including Texas , have proposed legislation that are seen as making voting more difficult

  • These laws are most likely to impact those that have never voted before

  • Different types of ballots

Why does the United States have a low voter turnout rate

  • U.S. has one of the lowest voters turnouts rates in developed world

  • Election are held on Tuesday

  • U.S. holds more frequent elections

  • U.S. holds primary elections

  • Registering to vote can be burdensome and complicated

 Compulsory Voting

  • Numerous countries around the world have compulsory voting…. if you don’t vote you’ll be punished

  • Brazil: 18-17 compulsory, 16-18 optional. Military conscripts do not vote. Small fines for not voting. Cannot take professional exams. No loans or passports

  • Australia : 18 and over compulsory. $20 fines for not voting. If you fight it in court and lose it’s a $50 fine plus court cost

Rational For voting

V= PB - C

V= casting a vote

P= the probability of the preferred candidate winning

B= the benefit expected from the preferred candidate

C= the cost of voting

Stages of presidential elections : Deciding whether to run or not

  • Family obligations

  • Is there a possibility of winning the nominees

  • Incumbent: the current office holder. an open seat is one whose incumbent is not running for reelection

  • Frequent visits to Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada signal potential presidential runs.

Stages of presidential elections : Nominations

  • Raising Money

  • Get media attention

  • Partake in debates

  • closed primary versus open primary

  • Texas has an open primary system

    example: In Texas people do not register with a party like in many other states

  • Primary versus Caucus

  • Proportional representation versus winner-take -all

 Stages of presidential elections : Conventions

  • Both parties hold three -day conventions to officially nominate their presidential nominee

  • Political theater

  • Politician wish to speak at these conventions for the attentions

  • The major network all broadcast these events

    Example: In , 2024 more than 25 million people watched the speeches of Donald trump and Kamala Harris

  • The nominees tend to get a bounce in the polls, after their party’s convention

 Stages of presidential elections : General election and election day

  • After the convention are over the candidates have a busy schedule in which they go across the country

  • Tends to focus on the battleground states

  • Visits large states such as California and Texas to raise money

  • Presidential debates

    Example: In 2020 the last debate took place 12 days before the election

  • October surprises

  • Voters make their decision on the first Tuesday in November following a Monday

    Example: More common for people to vote early

  • Some important factors deciding the elections results:

  • State of the economy

  • Is the United States in a war at the time

  • How long has the power in the white House been in power

  • Are the parties unified or fractured

Stages of presidential elections : Electoral College

  • On the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, the electors met in their respective states to cast their votes for president and vice president of the United States

  • Congress convenes to count the electoral votes in January

  • Inauguration on January 20th

  • Among the 538 electors chosen to represents their states in the Electoral college, five were faithless to the Democratic nominee and two to the Republican, Prior to this year, there hasn’t been more than one faithless elector in any presidential election since 1948

Electoral College

  • Five presidents have been elected without having recived the most votes

  1. John Quincy Adams {1842}

  2. Rutherford B. Hayes {1876}

  3. Benjamin Harrison {1888}

  4. George W. Bush {2000}

  5. Donald Trump {2016}

  • Congress decided if there is a tie { 269 - 269 }

  • Arguments in favor and against the electoral college

  • Sates joining a pact to circumvent the Electoral College

Congressional Job Approval

  • Based upon this dissatisfaction with Congress we would expect large turnover rate

  • However, reelection of incumbents is the norm. Tends to be over 90 percent.

  • Paradox of people not liking congress, but at the same time reelecting their own representative

  • Members of congress want to get rejected, and they act accordingly to increase the likelihood of reelection

Incumbency Advantage

  • Members claim credit for what their constituents like, but try to divert blame for what the constituents do not like.

  • the leadership of both political parties if often willing to spare its members from taking controversial votes if they are seen as being vulnerable

  • If members of congress are strategic they can minimize controversial votes

  • Former speakers of the United States House of Representatives Famously said “all politics is local “

  • Members of congress have set up rules that help them get reelected:

  • Committee assignments

  • war chest

  • 499 letters

  • able to travel back to their constituency frequently

  • Hold speeches on the floor for political purposes

More on Incumbency Advantage

  • Can use the “political machine” of their party to their advantages

  • Strong fundraising to fight off potential challengers

  • The campaigns to run for congress can cost millions of dollars

    • on average much more expensive to run for the senate

    Name recognition

  • Hard for the other party to recruit good candidates when there is a strong incumbent

  • The challenger needs to be able to raise money

  • Unless they can self finance

Can be partly negated when the political climate is in their party’s favor

The party of the president tends to do poorly in midterms elections

The party not in power often does well in Congressional seats elections during wartime

Unpopular president

Jacobson {1990}

  • The amount spent by the challenger is more important compared to incumbent

  • Inverse Relationship

  • Mini summary: In campaigns against incumbents the more the challenger spends, the more votes they receive, and the more likely they are to win. The more incumbents spent on the other hand…. the lower their votes, and the greater their chance of losing

  • Question: What helps explain this anomaly ?

  • Challenger can build up name recognition by buying advertisement

  • The incumbent tends to be already well known

  • Strong challengers are more likely to be able to fundraise the money needed to win

  • Mini summary: No matter how persuasive the message, it will not do any good if voters do not hear it, so the money, if not sufficient, is almost certainly necessary

 Redistricting

  • Mini summary: reapportionment reorganization of the boundaries of the House district, a process that follows the result of the U.S. census, taken every ten years, District lines are redrawn to ensure rough equality in the number of constituents represented by each House Member

  • Gerrymander: redrawing an election district in a way that gives the advantage to one party

  • Packing: placing all like-minded voters into one district

  • Cracking: Spreading out like-minded voters so they form a minority in many districts

  • Stacking: Merging two districts from the same party to make two incumbents run against each other

2018 Election in North Carolina

  • Democrats received more votes in both chambers of the North Carolina legislature, but Republican won 66 of 120 seats in the House and 29 out of 50 seats in the North Carolina Senate