Probability Rules for Compound Events
General Probability Concepts
Law of Large Numbers: As an experiment is repeated many times, the empirical probability approaches the theoretical probability.
Range of Probabilities: All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive (0 \le P(E) \le 1).
Complement of Events: The probability of "at least one" event occurring is 1 minus the probability that "none" of the events occur (P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - P(\text{none})).
Multiplication Rule for "And" Events (Compound Events)
Used when two or more events must both occur.
Independent Events: If the occurrence of event A does not affect the probability of event B, then P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B).
Dependent Events: If the occurrence of event A affects the probability of event B, then P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B|A).
Conditional Probability (P(B|A)): The probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred. When calculating from a chart, the denominator is the total of the "given" condition, not the overall total.
Addition Rule for "Or" Events (Compound Events)
Used when at least one of two or more events occurs.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot occur at the same time (P(A \text{ and } B) = 0). The probability is P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B).
Not Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that can occur at the same time (they overlap). The probability is P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \text{ and } B). The term - P(A \text{ and } B) subtracts the overlap to avoid double-counting.