Public Opinion

    • Types of Political Opinions

      Humor and Ideological Spectrum

      • Types of Government Ideologies: A humorous take on the ideological spectrum, drawing contrasts based on ownership of cows:

        • Socialism: You have 2 cows; give one to your neighbor.

        • Kanye: You have 2 cows; the government takes them and gives you milk.

        • Fascism: You have 2 cows; government takes both and sells you milk.

    • Nazism: You have 2 cows; government takes both and shoots you.

    • Bureaucracy: Government takes both cows, shoots one, milks the other, and pours it down the drain.

    • Capitalism: You have 2 cows; you sell one and buy a bull.

Key Vocabulary

  • Capricious: Describes public opinion as characterized by sudden changes, similar to mercury's properties.

Public Opinion Dynamics

Example of Changing Public Opinion

  • 1992 Ethiopian Famine: Significant impact of public opinion on humanitarian intervention.

    • Widespread famine and suffering despite attempts to send aid.

    • Public pressure on President Bush resulted in military action.

    • Shifted to nation-building that ultimately led to increased violence during the conflict, notably the Battle of Mogadishu.

    • Public support shifted dramatically after witnessing graphic media coverage of the consequences, leading to opposition to continued presence in Somalia.

    • Clinton’s Administration: Avoided intervention during the Rwandan genocide due to fears of falling approval ratings.

Understanding Polls and Sampling

Definition and Importance of Polls

  • Polls are statistical tools used to gauge public opinion at a specific moment.

  • Understanding the difference between correlation and causation is crucial in interpreting poll results.

Types of Polls

  1. Straw Poll: Non-binding votes that reflect opinions but don't count as official results.

  2. Tracking Poll: Measures changes in public opinion over time, often in relation to specific candidates or issues.

  3. Exit Polls: Conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots to predict outcomes.

  4. Focus Groups: Gatherings of specific demographic to assess reactions to speeches or policies.

  5. Push Polling: Tactics that aim to influence opinions under the guise of a survey, often using derogatory questions.

Sampling Techniques

  • Random Sampling: Ensures that every individual has an equal chance of being selected. Necessary for accurate representation of the larger population.

The Nature of Public Opinion

Mass Public vs. Attentive Public

  • Mass Public: Approximately 85% of the population, less engaged with complex political issues.

  • Attentive Public: More educated and engaged, informed about political events and voting regularly.

Political Campaigning Strategies

Bandwagon and Underdog Effects

  • Bandwagon Effect: Voters tend to support leading candidates, increasing their appeal.

  • Underdog Effect: Support for candidates perceived as underdogs can galvanize public sentiment.

    • Example: Obama’s campaign against Clinton as an underdog who succeeded against expectations.

Conclusion and Next Topics

  • The dynamics of public opinion are complex, influenced by a range of factors, including media portrayal, historical context, and the inherent capriciousness of the public mindset. Future discussions will focus on interest groups and their role in shaping politics.