Statistical Analysis — Mean, SD, % Change, T-Tests for Significance
1. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS IN SPORT SCIENCE
1.1 Why Statistics Matter in Sport Science
Statistics are essential tools for making sense of data in sport science. They allow us to:
Purpose | Application |
|---|---|
Describe data | Summarize performance measures (average sprint time, typical strength) |
Compare groups | Determine if treatment group differs from control |
Track changes | Quantify improvement from training interventions |
Make inferences | Draw conclusions about populations from samples |
Test hypotheses | Determine if results are due to chance or real effects |
Communicate findings | Report results in standardized, interpretable format |
Make decisions | Guide training, selection, and program design |
1.2 Types of Statistics
Type | Purpose | Examples |
|---|---|---|
Descriptive statistics | Summarize and describe data | Mean, SD, range, percentages |
Inferential statistics | Draw conclusions, test hypotheses | T-tests, ANOVA, correlation |
1.3 Levels of Measurement
Understanding data types is crucial for selecting appropriate statistics:
Level | Description | Examples | Appropriate Statistics |
|---|---|---|---|
Nominal | Categories with no order | Sex (M/F), sport type, position | Frequencies, mode, chi-square |
Ordinal | Categories with meaningful order | Rankings, RPE scale, finish position | Median, percentiles, rank tests |
Interval | Equal intervals, no true zero | Temperature (°C), calendar year | Mean, SD, t-tests, correlation |
Ratio | Equal intervals, true zero | Time, distance, weight, VO2max | Mean, SD, t-tests, correlation, ratios |
Most sport science data is ratio level (times, distances, weights, physiological measures), allowing use of parametric statistics.
2. MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
2.1 What Is Central Tendency?
Central tendency describes the "typical" or "average" value in a dataset — the center around which data clusters.
2.2 The Mean (Average)
Definition
The mean is the sum of all values divided by the number of values. It represents the arithmetic average of the data.
Formula
Mean (x̄) = Σx ÷ n
Where:
x̄ = sample mean (pronounced "x-bar")
Σx = sum of all values
n = number of values
Calculation Example
Sprint times (seconds): 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13
Step 1: Sum all values
Σx = 5.12 + 5.18 + 5.15 + 5.22 + 5.13 = 25.80
Step 2: Count number of values
n = 5
Step 3: Calculate mean
Mean = 25.80 ÷ 5 = 5.16 seconds
Symbols
Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
x̄ (x-bar) | Sample mean |
μ (mu) | Population mean |
Σ (sigma) | Sum of |
n | Sample size |
N | Population size |
Properties of the Mean
Property | Explanation |
|---|---|
Uses all data | Every value contributes to calculation |
Unique value | Only one mean for any dataset |
Balance point | Sum of deviations from mean equals zero |
Affected by outliers | Extreme values pull the mean toward them |
Algebraic properties | Can be used in further calculations |
Advantages of the Mean
Advantage | Explanation |
|---|---|
Most common measure | Widely understood and reported |
Uses all data | All values contribute to result |
Mathematically useful | Foundation for many other statistics |
Precise | Single specific value |
Good for symmetric data | Best represents typical value when data is normally distributed |
Disadvantages of the Mean
Disadvantage | Explanation |
|---|---|
Affected by outliers | Single extreme value can distort mean |
May not exist in data | Mean may be a value not actually observed |
Requires interval/ratio data | Not appropriate for nominal or ordinal data |
Misleading for skewed data | Doesn't represent typical value well if distribution is skewed |
Example of Outlier Effect
Without outlier: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13
Mean = 5.16 seconds
With outlier: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 6.50 (one very slow time)
Mean = 5.43 seconds
The single outlier (6.50) pulled the mean up by 0.27 seconds, misrepresenting typical performance.
2.3 The Median
Definition
The median is the middle value when data is arranged in order. It divides the distribution in half — 50% of values fall above, 50% below.
Calculation
If n is... | Median is... |
|---|---|
Odd | The middle value |
Even | Average of two middle values |
Example
Odd number of values: 5.12, 5.13, 5.15, 5.18, 5.22
Median = 5.15 (middle value)
Even number of values: 5.12, 5.13, 5.15, 5.18, 5.22, 5.25
Median = (5.15 + 5.18) ÷ 2 = 5.165
Advantages of the Median
Advantage | Explanation |
|---|---|
Not affected by outliers | Robust to extreme values |
Good for skewed data | Better represents typical value |
Easy to understand | The "middle" value |
When to Use Median Over Mean
Use Median When... | Example |
|---|---|
Data contains outliers | One extremely slow sprint time |
Distribution is skewed | Income data (right-skewed) |
Ordinal data | Rankings, RPE scores |
Comparing to middle performance | Median finishing position |
2.4 The Mode
Definition
The mode is the most frequently occurring value in a dataset.
Characteristics
Characteristic | Explanation |
|---|---|
Can have multiple modes | Bimodal, multimodal distributions |
May not exist | If all values are different |
Only measure for nominal data | Most common category |
Example
Sprint times: 5.12, 5.15, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.15
Mode = 5.15 (occurs 3 times)
2.5 Comparison of Central Tendency Measures
Measure | Best For | Affected by Outliers | Data Level |
|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Symmetric, normal data | Yes | Interval/Ratio |
Median | Skewed data, outliers present | No | Ordinal/Interval/Ratio |
Mode | Categorical data, most common value | No | Any level |
3. MEASURES OF VARIABILITY (DISPERSION)
3.1 Why Measure Variability?
Central tendency alone doesn't tell the whole story. We also need to know how spread out the data is around the center.
Example: Two groups both have mean = 5.20 seconds, but:
Group A: 5.18, 5.19, 5.20, 5.21, 5.22 (very consistent)
Group B: 4.80, 5.00, 5.20, 5.40, 5.60 (highly variable)
The mean is the same, but the groups are very different.
3.2 Range
Definition
The range is the difference between the highest and lowest values.
Formula
Range = Maximum value - Minimum value
Example
Sprint times: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13
Range = 5.22 - 5.12 = 0.10 seconds
Advantages and Limitations
Advantages | Limitations |
|---|---|
Simple to calculate | Only uses two values |
Easy to understand | Highly affected by outliers |
Quick overview of spread | Ignores distribution of other values |
3.3 Variance
Definition
Variance is the average of the squared deviations from the mean. It quantifies the spread of data around the mean.
Formula (Sample Variance)
s² = Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n - 1)
Where:
s² = sample variance
x = each individual value
x̄ = sample mean
n = sample size
(n - 1) = degrees of freedom
Why (n - 1)?
Reason | Explanation |
|---|---|
Degrees of freedom | When estimating population variance from sample, one df is "used up" calculating the mean |
Bessel's correction | Prevents underestimation of population variance |
Unbiased estimate | Makes sample variance unbiased estimator of population variance |
Calculation Example
Sprint times: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13 Mean = 5.16
Value (x) | Deviation (x - x̄) | Squared Deviation (x - x̄)² |
|---|---|---|
5.12 | -0.04 | 0.0016 |
5.18 | +0.02 | 0.0004 |
5.15 | -0.01 | 0.0001 |
5.22 | +0.06 | 0.0036 |
5.13 | -0.03 | 0.0009 |
Sum | 0.00 | 0.0066 |
Variance = 0.0066 ÷ (5 - 1) = 0.0066 ÷ 4 = 0.00165
Limitation of Variance
The variance is in squared units (e.g., seconds²), making interpretation difficult. This is why we typically use standard deviation.
3.4 Standard Deviation (SD)
Definition
Standard deviation is the square root of the variance. It measures the typical deviation of values from the mean, expressed in the original units of measurement.
Formula
s = √[Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n - 1)]
Or simply:
s = √s² (square root of variance)
Symbols
Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
s | Sample standard deviation |
σ (sigma) | Population standard deviation |
SD | Common abbreviation |
Calculation Example (Continued)
From previous example:
Variance = 0.00165
Standard Deviation = √0.00165 = 0.041 seconds
Reporting: Mean ± SD = 5.16 ± 0.04 seconds
Interpretation of Standard Deviation
SD Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|
Small SD | Data points cluster tightly around the mean; low variability |
Large SD | Data points spread widely from the mean; high variability |
SD = 0 | All values are identical |
The Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule)
For normally distributed data:
Range | Percentage of Data |
|---|---|
Mean ± 1 SD | ~68% of values |
Mean ± 2 SD | ~95% of values |
Mean ± 3 SD | ~99.7% of values |
68%
←─────────────→
95%
←─────────────────────────→
99.7%
←───────────────────────────────→
─────────────────────────────────────
-3SD -2SD -1SD Mean +1SD +2SD +3SD
Example Application
If mean sprint time = 5.16s and SD = 0.04s:
~68% of times fall between 5.12s and 5.20s (5.16 ± 0.04)
~95% of times fall between 5.08s and 5.24s (5.16 ± 0.08)
~99.7% of times fall between 5.04s and 5.28s (5.16 ± 0.12)
3.5 Coefficient of Variation (CV%)
Definition
The coefficient of variation expresses the standard deviation as a percentage of the mean. It allows comparison of variability between variables with different units or scales.
Formula
CV% = (SD ÷ Mean) × 100
Calculation Example
Mean = 5.16 seconds, SD = 0.04 seconds
CV% = (0.04 ÷ 5.16) × 100 = 0.78%
Interpretation: The typical variation is 0.78% of the mean value.
Uses of CV%
Use | Application |
|---|---|
Compare variability across different measures | Compare reliability of sprint test vs vertical jump |
Assess reliability | Lower CV% = better reliability |
Compare between studies | Standardized measure of variability |
Normalize variability | Removes influence of different measurement scales |
CV% Interpretation for Reliability
CV% | Reliability |
|---|---|
< 3% | Excellent |
3 - 5% | Good |
5 - 10% | Moderate |
> 10% | Poor |
Advantage of CV%
Example: Comparing variability of two different tests:
Test | Mean | SD | CV% |
|---|---|---|---|
Sprint time | 5.16s | 0.04s | 0.78% |
Vertical jump | 55 cm | 3.5 cm | 6.4% |
Raw SD values (0.04 vs 3.5) are not comparable because units differ. But CV% shows sprint time (0.78%) is more consistent than vertical jump (6.4%).
4. PRESENTING DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
4.1 Standard Format
The most common way to present descriptive statistics:
Mean ± SD
Examples:
Sprint time: 5.16 ± 0.04 seconds
VO2max: 52.3 ± 4.8 mL/kg/min
1RM bench press: 85.5 ± 12.3 kg
4.2 Complete Descriptive Summary
Statistic | Symbol | Example Value |
|---|---|---|
Sample size | n | 25 |
Mean | x̄ | 5.16 s |
Standard deviation | SD | 0.04 s |
Minimum | Min | 5.08 s |
Maximum | Max | 5.25 s |
Range | Range | 0.17 s |
Coefficient of variation | CV% | 0.78% |
4.3 Reporting in Tables
Example Table:
Variable | n | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
40m sprint (s) | 25 | 5.16 | 0.04 | 5.08 | 5.25 |
Vertical jump (cm) | 25 | 55.2 | 3.5 | 48 | 63 |
VO2max (mL/kg/min) | 25 | 52.3 | 4.8 | 42.5 | 61.2 |
5. PERCENTAGE CHANGE
5.1 Definition
Percentage change quantifies the relative change between two measurements, typically pre- and post-intervention. It expresses change as a proportion of the original value.
5.2 Formula
% Change = [(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100
Or equivalently:
% Change = [(New Value - Original Value) ÷ Original Value] × 100
5.3 Calculation Examples
Example 1: Improvement in VO2max
Pre-training VO2max: 48.0 mL/kg/min
Post-training VO2max: 52.5 mL/kg/min
% Change = [(52.5 - 48.0) ÷ 48.0] × 100
% Change = [4.5 ÷ 48.0] × 100
% Change = 0.09375 × 100
% Change = +9.4%
Interpretation: VO2max improved by 9.4%
Example 2: Improvement in Sprint Time (Decrease = Improvement)
Pre-training 40m sprint: 5.50 seconds
Post-training 40m sprint: 5.35 seconds
% Change = [(5.35 - 5.50) ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = [-0.15 ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = -0.0273 × 100
% Change = -2.7%
Interpretation: Sprint time decreased (improved) by 2.7%
Note: For measures where LOWER is better (times, errors), negative % change indicates improvement.
Example 3: Decrease in Body Fat
Pre: 18% body fat
Post: 15% body fat
% Change = [(15 - 18) ÷ 18] × 100
% Change = [-3 ÷ 18] × 100
% Change = -16.7%
Interpretation: Body fat decreased by 16.7%
5.4 Interpreting Percentage Change
% Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|
Positive (+) | Increase from pre to post |
Negative (-) | Decrease from pre to post |
Zero (0) | No change |
Direction and meaning depend on variable:
Variable | Improvement Direction | Example |
|---|---|---|
VO2max | Positive (+) | +8% = 8% improvement |
Sprint time | Negative (-) | -3% = 3% improvement (faster) |
1RM strength | Positive (+) | +15% = 15% improvement |
Body fat % | Negative (-) | -10% = 10% improvement (leaner) |
Errors | Negative (-) | -25% = 25% improvement |
5.5 Meaningful Change
Critical consideration: Is the percentage change REAL (greater than measurement error)?
Principle | Application |
|---|---|
Compare to typical error | Change must exceed typical error to be meaningful |
Smallest worthwhile change | Minimum change that matters practically |
Confidence intervals | Express uncertainty in the estimate |
Example:
If typical error (CV%) for VO2max testing = 3%
Observed change = +5%
This change (5%) exceeds typical error (3%), suggesting REAL improvement
5.6 Group Mean Percentage Change
When reporting group results, there are two approaches:
Approach 1: Mean of Individual % Changes
Calculate % change for each individual, then average:
Athlete | Pre | Post | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 48.0 | 52.0 | +8.3% |
2 | 52.0 | 55.0 | +5.8% |
3 | 45.0 | 49.5 | +10.0% |
Mean | — | — | +8.0% |
Approach 2: % Change in Group Means
Calculate group means, then % change:
Pre mean = 48.3 mL/kg/min
Post mean = 52.2 mL/kg/min
% Change = +8.1%
Note: These two approaches may give slightly different results. Be consistent and report which method was used.
5.7 Absolute Change vs Percentage Change
Measure | Formula | Example |
|---|---|---|
Absolute change | Post - Pre | 52.5 - 48.0 = 4.5 mL/kg/min |
Percentage change | [(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100 | +9.4% |
Both are useful:
Absolute change: Actual units of improvement
Percentage change: Relative to starting point; allows comparison across different baselines
5.8 Baseline Dependency
Important consideration: Same absolute change = different percentage change depending on baseline.
Example:
Athlete | Pre VO2max | Absolute Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
A | 40 mL/kg/min | +4 | +10% |
B | 60 mL/kg/min | +4 | +6.7% |
Same absolute improvement (+4 mL/kg/min), but different percentage change due to different starting points.
6. INFERENTIAL STATISTICS: T-TESTS
6.1 Purpose of Inferential Statistics
While descriptive statistics summarize data, inferential statistics allow us to:
Purpose | Description |
|---|---|
Make inferences | Draw conclusions about populations from samples |
Test hypotheses | Determine if results are due to chance or real effects |
Estimate parameters | Estimate population values from sample data |
Compare groups | Determine if differences between groups are statistically significant |
6.2 Key Concepts
Hypothesis Testing
Term | Definition |
|---|---|
Null hypothesis (H₀) | There is NO real difference or effect (any observed difference is due to chance) |
Alternative hypothesis (H₁ or Hₐ) | There IS a real difference or effect |
Statistical test | Procedure to determine which hypothesis is supported |
p-value | Probability of observing results if H₀ is true |
Significance level (α) | Threshold for rejecting H₀ (typically 0.05) |
The Logic of Hypothesis Testing
1. Assume H₀ is true (no real difference)
↓
2. Calculate probability of observed results if H₀ is true (p-value)
↓
3. If p-value is very small (< α), reject H₀
↓
4. Conclude there IS a real difference (accept H₁)
p-value Interpretation
p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|
p < 0.001 | Extremely strong evidence against H₀ |
p < 0.01 | Very strong evidence against H₀ |
p < 0.05 | Strong evidence against H₀; statistically significant |
p ≥ 0.05 | Insufficient evidence to reject H₀; not statistically significant |
Type I and Type II Errors
Error Type | Definition | Probability |
|---|---|---|
Type I (α) | Rejecting H₀ when it's actually true (false positive) | Equal to α (typically 0.05) |
Type II (β) | Failing to reject H₀ when it's actually false (false negative) | Related to statistical power |
6.3 What Is a T-Test?
A t-test is a statistical test used to determine whether the difference between two means is statistically significant. It produces a t-statistic, which is compared to critical values to determine significance.
When to Use T-Tests
Situation | Appropriate T-Test |
|---|---|
Compare one group to a known value | One-sample t-test |
Compare two independent groups | Independent samples t-test |
Compare same group at two time points | Paired (dependent) samples t-test |
6.4 Assumptions of T-Tests
Assumption | Description | What If Violated? |
|---|---|---|
Continuous data | Dependent variable is interval or ratio | Use non-parametric test |
Normal distribution | Data approximately normally distributed | Robust with n > 30; else use non-parametric |
Independence | Observations are independent | Use paired test if related |
Equal variances (independent t-test) | Groups have similar variances | Use Welch's t-test |
6.5 Independent Samples T-Test
Purpose
Compare the means of two separate, unrelated groups to determine if they differ significantly.
When to Use
Treatment group vs control group
Males vs females
Sport A vs Sport B
Any comparison of two independent groups
Example Research Question
"Does a new training program improve sprint performance compared to standard training?"
Group 1 (Experimental): 15 athletes using new program
Group 2 (Control): 15 athletes using standard program
Dependent variable: Post-intervention 40m sprint time
Hypotheses
Hypothesis | Statement |
|---|---|
H₀ | There is no difference between group means (μ₁ = μ₂) |
H₁ | There is a difference between group means (μ₁ ≠ μ₂) |
Formula (Conceptual)
t = (Mean₁ - Mean₂) ÷ Standard Error of Difference
Where Standard Error depends on:
- Standard deviations of both groups
- Sample sizes of both groups
The full formula is:
t = (x̄₁ - x̄₂) ÷ √[(s₁²/n₁) + (s₂²/n₂)]
Example Calculation
Group | n | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
Experimental | 15 | 5.15s | 0.12s |
Control | 15 | 5.28s | 0.14s |
Step 1: Calculate Standard Error
SE = √[(0.12²/15) + (0.14²/15)]
SE = √[(0.0144/15) + (0.0196/15)]
SE = √[0.00096 + 0.00131]
SE = √0.00227
SE = 0.048
Step 2: Calculate t-statistic
t = (5.15 - 5.28) ÷ 0.048
t = -0.13 ÷ 0.048
t = -2.71
Interpreting Results
Calculate degrees of freedom: df = n₁ + n₂ - 2 = 15 + 15 - 2 = 28
Look up critical t-value or calculate p-value
If |t| > critical value OR p < 0.05, result is statistically significant
For t = -2.71 with df = 28, p ≈ 0.011
Conclusion: p < 0.05, so we reject H₀. The experimental group is significantly faster than the control group.
Reporting Independent T-Test Results
Example format: "The experimental group (M = 5.15s, SD = 0.12) was significantly faster than the control group (M = 5.28s, SD = 0.14), t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011."
6.6 Paired (Dependent) Samples T-Test
Purpose
Compare the means of the same group at two different time points (e.g., pre-test and post-test) to determine if there is a significant change.
When to Use
Pre-test vs post-test comparisons
Before vs after intervention
Same subjects tested under two conditions
Matched pairs designs
Example Research Question
"Does 8 weeks of plyometric training significantly improve vertical jump height?"
Measurement 1: Pre-training vertical jump
Measurement 2: Post-training vertical jump (same athletes)
Why "Paired"?
Each pre-test value is paired with its corresponding post-test value from the same individual. This pairing reduces error by accounting for individual differences.
Hypotheses
Hypothesis | Statement |
|---|---|
H₀ | Mean difference = 0 (no change from pre to post) |
H₁ | Mean difference ≠ 0 (significant change from pre to post) |
Formula (Conceptual)
t = Mean Difference ÷ Standard Error of Mean Difference
t = d̄ ÷ (SD_d ÷ √n)
Where:
d̄ = mean of the differences (post - pre for each individual)
SD_d = standard deviation of the differences
n = number of pairs
Example Calculation
Athlete | Pre (cm) | Post (cm) | Difference (d) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 52 | 56 | +4 |
2 | 48 | 50 | +2 |
3 | 55 | 60 | +5 |
4 | 50 | 53 | +3 |
5 | 53 | 58 | +5 |
6 | 49 | 52 | +3 |
7 | 51 | 54 | +3 |
8 | 54 | 59 | +5 |
Mean | 51.5 | 55.25 | +3.75 |
SD | — | — | 1.16 |
Step 1: Calculate mean difference
d̄ = (4+2+5+3+5+3+3+5) ÷ 8 = 30 ÷ 8 = 3.75 cm
Step 2: Calculate SD of differences
SD_d = 1.16 cm (calculated from individual differences)
Step 3: Calculate Standard Error
SE = SD_d ÷ √n = 1.16 ÷ √8 = 1.16 ÷ 2.83 = 0.41
Step 4: Calculate t-statistic
t = d̄ ÷ SE = 3.75 ÷ 0.41 = 9.15
Interpreting Results
Degrees of freedom: df = n - 1 = 8 - 1 = 7
For t = 9.15 with df = 7, p < 0.001
Conclusion: p < 0.001, so we reject H₀. There is a statistically significant improvement in vertical jump following the training program.
Reporting Paired T-Test Results
Example format: "Vertical jump height significantly increased from pre-training (M = 51.5 cm, SD = 2.5) to post-training (M = 55.25 cm, SD = 3.4), t(7) = 9.15, p < 0.001. The mean improvement was 3.75 cm (95% CI: 2.78 to 4.72)."
6.7 One-Sample T-Test
Purpose
Compare a sample mean to a known or hypothesized population value to determine if the sample differs significantly from that value.
When to Use
Compare sample to established norm
Compare sample to target/threshold value
Test if sample differs from a specific number
Example Research Question
"Does our team's average VO2max differ from the national average of 55 mL/kg/min?"
Formula
t = (x̄ - μ) ÷ (s ÷ √n)
Where:
x̄ = sample mean
μ = population/hypothesized value
s = sample standard deviation
n = sample size
Example
Sample mean = 58.5 mL/kg/min
Hypothesized value = 55 mL/kg/min
Sample SD = 6.2 mL/kg/min
n = 20
t = (58.5 - 55) ÷ (6.2 ÷ √20)
t = 3.5 ÷ (6.2 ÷ 4.47)
t = 3.5 ÷ 1.39
t = 2.52
For df = 19 and t = 2.52, p ≈ 0.021
Conclusion: Our team's VO2max (58.5) is significantly higher than the national average (55), p = 0.021.
6.8 Summary of T-Test Types
T-Test Type | Groups | Purpose | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
One-sample | 1 sample vs known value | Compare to standard/norm | Team vs national average |
Independent | 2 separate groups | Compare different groups | Treatment vs control |
Paired | 1 group, 2 times | Compare pre vs post | Before and after training |
7. STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE VS PRACTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
7.1 The Distinction
Concept | Definition | Question Answered |
|---|---|---|
Statistical significance | Result unlikely due to chance alone (p < 0.05) | "Is the difference REAL?" |
Practical significance | Result meaningful in real-world application | "Is the difference IMPORTANT?" |
7.2 Why the Distinction Matters
A result can be:
Scenario | Statistically Significant | Practically Significant |
|---|---|---|
1 | Yes | Yes |
2 | Yes | No |
3 | No | Potentially yes |
4 | No | No |
7.3 The Problem with Large Samples
With large sample sizes, even trivially small differences can be statistically significant.
Example:
Group A mean = 5.15s (n = 500)
Group B mean = 5.17s (n = 500)
Difference = 0.02 seconds
With n = 1000 total, this tiny difference (0.02s) might yield p < 0.01. But is 0.02 seconds practically meaningful in a 40m sprint? Probably not.
7.4 Effect Size
Effect size quantifies the magnitude of the difference independent of sample size.
Cohen's d
The most common effect size measure for comparing two means.
Formula:
Cohen's d = (Mean₁ - Mean₂) ÷ Pooled SD
Where Pooled SD = √[(SD₁² + SD₂²) ÷ 2]
Interpretation (Cohen's conventions):
Cohen's d | Effect Size |
|---|---|
0.2 | Small |
0.5 | Medium |
0.8 | Large |
> 1.2 | Very large |
Example Calculation
Experimental group: Mean = 5.15s, SD = 0.12s
Control group: Mean = 5.28s, SD = 0.14s
Step 1: Calculate pooled SD
Pooled SD = √[(0.12² + 0.14²) ÷ 2]
Pooled SD = √[(0.0144 + 0.0196) ÷ 2]
Pooled SD = √[0.017]
Pooled SD = 0.13
Step 2: Calculate Cohen's d
Cohen's d = (5.15 - 5.28) ÷ 0.13
Cohen's d = -0.13 ÷ 0.13
Cohen's d = -1.0
Interpretation: |d| = 1.0, which is a large effect. The experimental group performed substantially better (faster).
7.5 Reporting Both Statistical and Practical Significance
Good practice: Report p-value AND effect size.
Example: "The experimental group (M = 5.15s, SD = 0.12) was significantly faster than the control group (M = 5.28s, SD = 0.14), t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011, Cohen's d = 1.0. This represents a large effect."
8. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (Continued)
8.3 Formula for 95% CI (for means)
95% CI = Mean ± (t-critical × Standard Error)
Where:
Standard Error (SE) = SD ÷ √n
t-critical = value from t-distribution for 95% confidence and given dfFor large samples (n > 30), t-critical ≈ 1.96
8.4 Calculation Example
Data:
Mean vertical jump = 55 cm
SD = 5 cm
n = 25
Step 1: Calculate Standard Error
SE = SD ÷ √n = 5 ÷ √25 = 5 ÷ 5 = 1.0 cm
Step 2: Find t-critical (df = 24, 95% confidence)
t-critical ≈ 2.064
Step 3: Calculate 95% CI
95% CI = 55 ± (2.064 × 1.0)
95% CI = 55 ± 2.06
95% CI = 52.94 to 57.06 cmReporting: "Mean vertical jump was 55 cm (95% CI: 52.9 to 57.1 cm)"
8.5 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means
When comparing two groups, we can calculate a CI for the difference between their means.
Key interpretation: If the 95% CI for the difference does NOT include zero, the difference is statistically significant at p < 0.05.
Example
Group | Mean | SD | n |
|---|---|---|---|
Experimental | 5.15s | 0.12s | 15 |
Control | 5.28s | 0.14s | 15 |
Mean difference = 5.15 - 5.28 = -0.13s
SE of difference = 0.048 (calculated previously)
95% CI = -0.13 ± (2.048 × 0.048) = -0.13 ± 0.098
95% CI = -0.228 to -0.032 secondsInterpretation: The CI does NOT include zero (-0.228 to -0.032), so the difference is statistically significant. The experimental group is significantly faster by 0.03 to 0.23 seconds.
8.6 Advantages of Confidence Intervals
Advantage | Explanation |
|---|---|
Shows precision | Narrow CI = precise estimate; wide CI = imprecise |
Shows uncertainty | Acknowledges sampling variability |
Includes effect size | Shows magnitude of difference, not just significance |
More informative than p-value | Provides range of plausible values |
Easy significance test | If CI excludes zero, result is significant |
8.7 Interpreting CI Width
CI Width | Indicates | Influenced By |
|---|---|---|
Narrow | Precise estimate | Large sample size; low variability |
Wide | Imprecise estimate | Small sample size; high variability |
9. CORRELATION
9.1 Definition
Correlation measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. It indicates how well one variable predicts the other.
9.2 Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r)
Properties
Property | Description |
|---|---|
Range | -1 to +1 |
Sign | Positive (+) = variables move together; Negative (-) = variables move opposite |
Magnitude | Closer to ±1 = stronger relationship; closer to 0 = weaker relationship |
No units | Dimensionless measure |
Interpretation of r Values
r Value | Strength of Relationship |
|---|---|
0.90 - 1.00 | Very strong |
0.70 - 0.89 | Strong |
0.50 - 0.69 | Moderate |
0.30 - 0.49 | Weak |
0.00 - 0.29 | Very weak or none |
Same interpretation for negative values (e.g., r = -0.85 is a strong negative correlation)
Visual Representation
POSITIVE CORRELATION (r = +0.85) NEGATIVE CORRELATION (r = -0.80)
Y Y
│ ●● │ ●●
│ ●● │ ●●
│ ●● │ ●●
│ ●● │ ●●
│● │ ●●
└─────────── X └─────────── X
NO CORRELATION (r = 0.05)
Y
│ ● ●
│ ● ● ●
│ ● ●
│ ● ● ●
│ ● ●
└─────────── X9.3 Coefficient of Determination (r²)
Definition
r² (r-squared) represents the proportion of variance in one variable explained by the other variable.
Formula
r² = r × rInterpretation
r | r² | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
0.90 | 0.81 | 81% of variance explained |
0.70 | 0.49 | 49% of variance explained |
0.50 | 0.25 | 25% of variance explained |
0.30 | 0.09 | 9% of variance explained |
Example
If correlation between VO2max and 5km run time is r = -0.85:
r² = 0.72
Interpretation: 72% of the variance in 5km time can be explained by VO2max. The remaining 28% is due to other factors (pacing, running economy, psychology, etc.)
9.4 Correlation in Sport Science Applications
Application | Example Variables | Expected r |
|---|---|---|
Criterion validity | Field test vs gold standard | r > 0.80 desired |
Test-retest reliability | Trial 1 vs Trial 2 | r > 0.90 desired |
Performance prediction | VO2max vs endurance performance | r = 0.70-0.90 |
Construct validity | Two measures of same construct | r > 0.70 |
9.5 Important Cautions
Caution | Explanation |
|---|---|
Correlation ≠ causation | A strong correlation does not prove one variable causes the other |
Linear relationships only | Pearson r only detects linear relationships; may miss curvilinear |
Outliers affect r | Single extreme values can inflate or deflate correlation |
Restricted range | Limited variability in one variable reduces r |
Spurious correlations | Third variable may explain relationship |
10. STANDARD ERROR OF MEASUREMENT (SEM)
10.1 Definition
Standard Error of Measurement (SEM) quantifies the typical error in individual measurements — the amount by which a measured score might differ from the true score due to measurement error.
10.2 Formula
SEM = SD × √(1 - ICC)
Or alternatively:
SEM = SD × √(1 - r)
Where:
SD = standard deviation of the measure
ICC = intraclass correlation coefficient (reliability)
r = test-retest reliability coefficient10.3 Example Calculation
Data:
SD of vertical jump scores = 5 cm
Test-retest reliability (ICC) = 0.95
SEM = 5 × √(1 - 0.95)
SEM = 5 × √0.05
SEM = 5 × 0.224
SEM = 1.12 cmInterpretation: Individual measurements typically vary by about ±1.1 cm due to measurement error.
10.4 Using SEM
True Score Estimation
If an athlete scores 55 cm on vertical jump (SEM = 1.1 cm):
68% confidence: True score is 55 ± 1.1 = 53.9 to 56.1 cm
95% confidence: True score is 55 ± (1.96 × 1.1) = 52.8 to 57.2 cm
Minimum Detectable Change (MDC)
The smallest change that can be confidently detected as real (not error):
MDC₉₅ = SEM × 1.96 × √2 = SEM × 2.77Example: SEM = 1.1 cm
MDC₉₅ = 1.1 × 2.77 = 3.05 cm
Interpretation: A change of at least 3.05 cm is needed to be 95% confident the change is real.
11. PRESENTING STATISTICAL RESULTS
11.1 Reporting Conventions
Descriptive Statistics
Mean ± SD (or Mean (SD))
Example: "Sprint time was 5.16 ± 0.12 seconds"T-Test Results
t(df) = t-value, p = p-value
Example: "t(28) = 2.71, p = 0.011"With Effect Size
t(df) = t-value, p = p-value, Cohen's d = effect size
Example: "t(28) = 2.71, p = 0.011, d = 1.0"With Confidence Interval
Mean difference = X (95% CI: lower to upper)
Example: "The experimental group was 0.13s faster (95% CI: 0.03 to 0.23s)"Correlation
r = correlation coefficient, p = p-value
Example: "r = 0.85, p < 0.001"
Or with r²:
"r = 0.85 (r² = 0.72), p < 0.001"11.2 Example Results Section
Descriptive statistics: "Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for all variables. The experimental group (n = 15) had a mean 40m sprint time of 5.15 ± 0.12 seconds, while the control group (n = 15) averaged 5.28 ± 0.14 seconds."
Inferential statistics: "An independent samples t-test revealed that the experimental group was significantly faster than the control group, t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011. The mean difference of 0.13 seconds (95% CI: 0.03 to 0.23) represents a large effect (Cohen's d = 1.0)."
Pre-post comparison: "A paired samples t-test showed vertical jump height significantly increased from pre-training (M = 51.5 cm, SD = 2.5) to post-training (M = 55.25 cm, SD = 3.4), t(7) = 9.15, p < 0.001. The mean improvement was 3.75 cm (7.3%), representing a large effect (d = 1.27)."
11.3 Tables for Presenting Data
Descriptive Statistics Table
Variable | Experimental (n=15) | Control (n=15) |
|---|---|---|
Mean ± SD | Mean ± SD | |
40m sprint (s) | 5.15 ± 0.12 | 5.28 ± 0.14 |
Vertical jump (cm) | 58.2 ± 4.5 | 55.8 ± 5.1 |
VO2max (mL/kg/min) | 54.3 ± 5.2 | 52.1 ± 4.8 |
Pre-Post Comparison Table
Variable | Pre | Post | Change | % Change | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VJ (cm) | 51.5 ± 2.5 | 55.3 ± 3.4 | +3.8 | +7.4% | < 0.001 |
40m (s) | 5.52 ± 0.15 | 5.38 ± 0.14 | -0.14 | -2.5% | 0.003 |
VO2max | 48.2 ± 4.5 | 52.8 ± 4.2 | +4.6 | +9.5% | < 0.001 |
12. COMMON STATISTICAL MISTAKES
12.1 Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake | Problem | Correction |
|---|---|---|
p-value = probability null is true | p-value is probability of DATA if H₀ true, not probability H₀ is true | Report p-value correctly |
p > 0.05 means "no effect" | May be underpowered; absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence | Report effect size and CI |
Ignoring practical significance | Statistically significant ≠ practically important | Always report effect size |
Using correlation as causation | Correlation does not imply causation | Be cautious with interpretation |
Reporting p = 0.000 | p-values are never exactly zero | Report as "p < 0.001" |
Only reporting significant results | Publication bias; incomplete picture | Report all findings |
Comparing groups with % change | Can be misleading with different baselines | Use absolute change or standardized effect |
Using wrong t-test | Independent vs paired | Match test to design |
Ignoring assumptions | Violations affect validity | Check normality, variance equality |
12.2 Key Principle: Statistical vs Practical Significance
Always ask two questions:
Is the difference REAL? (statistical significance — p-value)
Is the difference IMPORTANT? (practical significance — effect size)
13. SUMMARY TABLE: KEY STATISTICAL FORMULAS
Statistic | Formula | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
Mean | x̄ = Σx ÷ n | Central tendency |
Standard Deviation | s = √[Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n-1)] | Variability |
Coefficient of Variation | CV% = (SD ÷ Mean) × 100 | Relative variability |
Percentage Change | [(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100 | Relative change |
Standard Error | SE = SD ÷ √n | Precision of mean |
95% Confidence Interval | Mean ± (t × SE) | Range of plausible values |
Independent t-test | t = (x̄₁ - x̄₂) ÷ SE_diff | Compare two group means |
Paired t-test | t = d̄ ÷ (SD_d ÷ √n) | Compare pre vs post |
Cohen's d | d = (M₁ - M₂) ÷ SD_pooled | Effect size |
Pearson r | (complex calculation) | Correlation strength |
r² | r × r | Variance explained |
SEM | SD × √(1 - ICC) | Measurement error |
14. EXAM APPLICATION TIPS
14.1 Common Essay Questions
"Calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation for a given dataset" (6-8 marks)
"Explain the difference between statistical significance and practical significance" (6 marks)
"Describe when you would use an independent t-test versus a paired t-test" (6 marks)
"Calculate percentage change and interpret whether the change is meaningful" (8 marks)
"Interpret the results of a t-test and explain what the p-value and effect size tell us" (10 marks)
"Explain how confidence intervals can be used to determine statistical significance" (6 marks)
14.2 Key Definitions to Know
Term | Definition |
|---|---|
Mean | Sum of values divided by number of values |
Standard deviation | Typical deviation from the mean |
Coefficient of variation | SD as percentage of mean |
Percentage change | Relative change from pre to post |
p-value | Probability of results if null hypothesis is true |
Statistical significance | p < 0.05; unlikely due to chance |
Effect size (Cohen's d) | Standardized magnitude of difference |
Confidence interval | Range likely to contain true value |
Independent t-test | Compares two separate group means |
Paired t-test | Compares same group at two times |
Correlation | Strength and direction of linear relationship |
Type I error | Rejecting true null hypothesis (false positive) |
Type II error | Failing to reject false null hypothesis (false negative) |
14.3 Calculation Practice
Given data: Pre-training 40m sprint times for 6 athletes: 5.45, 5.52, 5.38, 5.61, 5.49, 5.55 seconds
Calculate:
Mean:
Mean = (5.45 + 5.52 + 5.38 + 5.61 + 5.49 + 5.55) ÷ 6
Mean = 33.00 ÷ 6 = 5.50 secondsStandard Deviation:
Value | Deviation | Squared Deviation |
|---|---|---|
5.45 | -0.05 | 0.0025 |
5.52 | +0.02 | 0.0004 |
5.38 | -0.12 | 0.0144 |
5.61 | +0.11 | 0.0121 |
5.49 | -0.01 | 0.0001 |
5.55 | +0.05 | 0.0025 |
Sum | 0 | 0.0320 |
Variance = 0.0320 ÷ (6-1) = 0.0064
SD = √0.0064 = 0.08 secondsCV%:
CV% = (0.08 ÷ 5.50) × 100 = 1.45%If post-training mean = 5.35 seconds, percentage change:
% Change = [(5.35 - 5.50) ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = -2.7% (improvement)14.4 Interpretation Examples
Example 1: T-test result
"Results: t(18) = 3.45, p = 0.003, d = 1.2"
Interpretation: "The t-test was statistically significant (p = 0.003 < 0.05), indicating the difference between groups is unlikely due to chance. The effect size (d = 1.2) is very large, indicating a substantial practical difference between groups."
Example 2: Correlation result
"Results: r = 0.78, p < 0.001"
Interpretation: "There is a strong positive correlation between the two variables (r = 0.78). This relationship is statistically significant (p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination (r² = 0.61) indicates that 61% of the variance in one variable can be explained by the other."
Example 3: Percentage change with error consideration
"Pre: 52.0 mL/kg/min, Post: 55.5 mL/kg/min, typical error CV = 3%"
Interpretation:
% Change = [(55.5 - 52.0) ÷ 52.0] × 100 = +6.7%
Typical error at pre = 3% × 52.0 = 1.56 mL/kg/min
Change (3.5) > 2 × typical error (3.1)"The improvement of 6.7% (3.5 mL/kg/min) exceeds twice the typical error, suggesting this represents a real physiological improvement rather than measurement variability."
15. KEY RESEARCHERS TO REFERENCE
Researcher | Contribution |
|---|---|
Cohen (1988) | Effect size conventions (d = 0.2, 0.5, 0.8) |
Student/Gosset (1908) | Developed the t-test |
Fisher (1925) | Modern statistical significance testing |
Pearson (1895) | Correlation coefficient |
Hopkins (2000) | Sports science reliability statistics |
Batterham & Hopkins (2006) | Magnitude-based inferences |
16. SUMMARY: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PRINCIPLES
Principle | Application |
|---|---|
Mean = typical value | Central point of data; affected by outliers |
SD = typical spread | ±1 SD contains ~68% of data |
CV% = relative variability | Allows comparison across different measures |
% Change = relative improvement | Must exceed typical error to be meaningful |
p-value < 0.05 = significant | Result unlikely due to chance alone |
Effect size = magnitude | Cohen's d: 0.2 small, 0.5 medium, 0.8 large |
CI shows precision | If CI excludes zero, result is significant |
Statistical ≠ practical | Always report BOTH p-value AND effect size |
Independent t-test | Compare TWO DIFFERENT groups |
Paired t-test | Compare SAME group at TWO TIMES |
Correlation (r) | Strength of relationship; r² = variance explained |
Consider measurement error | Change must exceed typical error to be real |
17. COMPLETE MEASUREMENT AND TESTING SUMMARY
You have now completed comprehensive notes on all measurement and testing topics:
Topic | Key Content |
|---|---|
1. Validity & Reliability | Types of validity (face, content, criterion, construct); reliability measures (ICC, CV%, SEM); standardization principles |
2. VO2max Testing | Direct (metabolic cart) vs indirect methods; multistage fitness test; Astrand-Rhyming; protocols and interpretation |
3. Strength, Speed, Agility, Flexibility | 1RM protocol; 40m sprint; Illinois agility; sit and reach; norms and reliability |
4. Lactate Threshold (OBLA) | 4 mmol/L concept; incremental protocol; interpolation; training zones; monitoring |
5. Statistical Analysis | Mean, SD, CV%, % change; t-tests (independent and paired); p-values; effect size; confidence intervals; correlation |