Statistical Analysis — Mean, SD, % Change, T-Tests for Significance

1. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS IN SPORT SCIENCE

1.1 Why Statistics Matter in Sport Science

Statistics are essential tools for making sense of data in sport science. They allow us to:

Purpose

Application

Describe data

Summarize performance measures (average sprint time, typical strength)

Compare groups

Determine if treatment group differs from control

Track changes

Quantify improvement from training interventions

Make inferences

Draw conclusions about populations from samples

Test hypotheses

Determine if results are due to chance or real effects

Communicate findings

Report results in standardized, interpretable format

Make decisions

Guide training, selection, and program design

1.2 Types of Statistics

Type

Purpose

Examples

Descriptive statistics

Summarize and describe data

Mean, SD, range, percentages

Inferential statistics

Draw conclusions, test hypotheses

T-tests, ANOVA, correlation

1.3 Levels of Measurement

Understanding data types is crucial for selecting appropriate statistics:

Level

Description

Examples

Appropriate Statistics

Nominal

Categories with no order

Sex (M/F), sport type, position

Frequencies, mode, chi-square

Ordinal

Categories with meaningful order

Rankings, RPE scale, finish position

Median, percentiles, rank tests

Interval

Equal intervals, no true zero

Temperature (°C), calendar year

Mean, SD, t-tests, correlation

Ratio

Equal intervals, true zero

Time, distance, weight, VO2max

Mean, SD, t-tests, correlation, ratios

Most sport science data is ratio level (times, distances, weights, physiological measures), allowing use of parametric statistics.


2. MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

2.1 What Is Central Tendency?

Central tendency describes the "typical" or "average" value in a dataset — the center around which data clusters.

2.2 The Mean (Average)

Definition

The mean is the sum of all values divided by the number of values. It represents the arithmetic average of the data.

Formula
Mean (x̄) = Σx ÷ n

Where:
x̄ = sample mean (pronounced "x-bar")
Σx = sum of all values
n = number of values
Calculation Example

Sprint times (seconds): 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13

Step 1: Sum all values
Σx = 5.12 + 5.18 + 5.15 + 5.22 + 5.13 = 25.80

Step 2: Count number of values
n = 5

Step 3: Calculate mean
Mean = 25.80 ÷ 5 = 5.16 seconds
Symbols

Symbol

Meaning

(x-bar)

Sample mean

μ (mu)

Population mean

Σ (sigma)

Sum of

n

Sample size

N

Population size

Properties of the Mean

Property

Explanation

Uses all data

Every value contributes to calculation

Unique value

Only one mean for any dataset

Balance point

Sum of deviations from mean equals zero

Affected by outliers

Extreme values pull the mean toward them

Algebraic properties

Can be used in further calculations

Advantages of the Mean

Advantage

Explanation

Most common measure

Widely understood and reported

Uses all data

All values contribute to result

Mathematically useful

Foundation for many other statistics

Precise

Single specific value

Good for symmetric data

Best represents typical value when data is normally distributed

Disadvantages of the Mean

Disadvantage

Explanation

Affected by outliers

Single extreme value can distort mean

May not exist in data

Mean may be a value not actually observed

Requires interval/ratio data

Not appropriate for nominal or ordinal data

Misleading for skewed data

Doesn't represent typical value well if distribution is skewed

Example of Outlier Effect

Without outlier: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13

  • Mean = 5.16 seconds

With outlier: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 6.50 (one very slow time)

  • Mean = 5.43 seconds

The single outlier (6.50) pulled the mean up by 0.27 seconds, misrepresenting typical performance.

2.3 The Median

Definition

The median is the middle value when data is arranged in order. It divides the distribution in half — 50% of values fall above, 50% below.

Calculation

If n is...

Median is...

Odd

The middle value

Even

Average of two middle values

Example

Odd number of values: 5.12, 5.13, 5.15, 5.18, 5.22

  • Median = 5.15 (middle value)

Even number of values: 5.12, 5.13, 5.15, 5.18, 5.22, 5.25

  • Median = (5.15 + 5.18) ÷ 2 = 5.165

Advantages of the Median

Advantage

Explanation

Not affected by outliers

Robust to extreme values

Good for skewed data

Better represents typical value

Easy to understand

The "middle" value

When to Use Median Over Mean

Use Median When...

Example

Data contains outliers

One extremely slow sprint time

Distribution is skewed

Income data (right-skewed)

Ordinal data

Rankings, RPE scores

Comparing to middle performance

Median finishing position

2.4 The Mode

Definition

The mode is the most frequently occurring value in a dataset.

Characteristics

Characteristic

Explanation

Can have multiple modes

Bimodal, multimodal distributions

May not exist

If all values are different

Only measure for nominal data

Most common category

Example

Sprint times: 5.12, 5.15, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.15

  • Mode = 5.15 (occurs 3 times)

2.5 Comparison of Central Tendency Measures

Measure

Best For

Affected by Outliers

Data Level

Mean

Symmetric, normal data

Yes

Interval/Ratio

Median

Skewed data, outliers present

No

Ordinal/Interval/Ratio

Mode

Categorical data, most common value

No

Any level


3. MEASURES OF VARIABILITY (DISPERSION)

3.1 Why Measure Variability?

Central tendency alone doesn't tell the whole story. We also need to know how spread out the data is around the center.

Example: Two groups both have mean = 5.20 seconds, but:

  • Group A: 5.18, 5.19, 5.20, 5.21, 5.22 (very consistent)

  • Group B: 4.80, 5.00, 5.20, 5.40, 5.60 (highly variable)

The mean is the same, but the groups are very different.

3.2 Range

Definition

The range is the difference between the highest and lowest values.

Formula
Range = Maximum value - Minimum value
Example

Sprint times: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13

  • Range = 5.22 - 5.12 = 0.10 seconds

Advantages and Limitations

Advantages

Limitations

Simple to calculate

Only uses two values

Easy to understand

Highly affected by outliers

Quick overview of spread

Ignores distribution of other values

3.3 Variance

Definition

Variance is the average of the squared deviations from the mean. It quantifies the spread of data around the mean.

Formula (Sample Variance)
s² = Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n - 1)

Where:
s² = sample variance
x = each individual value
x̄ = sample mean
n = sample size
(n - 1) = degrees of freedom
Why (n - 1)?

Reason

Explanation

Degrees of freedom

When estimating population variance from sample, one df is "used up" calculating the mean

Bessel's correction

Prevents underestimation of population variance

Unbiased estimate

Makes sample variance unbiased estimator of population variance

Calculation Example

Sprint times: 5.12, 5.18, 5.15, 5.22, 5.13 Mean = 5.16

Value (x)

Deviation (x - x̄)

Squared Deviation (x - x̄)²

5.12

-0.04

0.0016

5.18

+0.02

0.0004

5.15

-0.01

0.0001

5.22

+0.06

0.0036

5.13

-0.03

0.0009

Sum

0.00

0.0066

Variance = 0.0066 ÷ (5 - 1) = 0.0066 ÷ 4 = 0.00165
Limitation of Variance

The variance is in squared units (e.g., seconds²), making interpretation difficult. This is why we typically use standard deviation.

3.4 Standard Deviation (SD)

Definition

Standard deviation is the square root of the variance. It measures the typical deviation of values from the mean, expressed in the original units of measurement.

Formula
s = √[Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n - 1)]

Or simply:

s = √s² (square root of variance)
Symbols

Symbol

Meaning

s

Sample standard deviation

σ (sigma)

Population standard deviation

SD

Common abbreviation

Calculation Example (Continued)

From previous example:

  • Variance = 0.00165

Standard Deviation = √0.00165 = 0.041 seconds

Reporting: Mean ± SD = 5.16 ± 0.04 seconds

Interpretation of Standard Deviation

SD Value

Interpretation

Small SD

Data points cluster tightly around the mean; low variability

Large SD

Data points spread widely from the mean; high variability

SD = 0

All values are identical

The Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule)

For normally distributed data:

Range

Percentage of Data

Mean ± 1 SD

~68% of values

Mean ± 2 SD

~95% of values

Mean ± 3 SD

~99.7% of values

                    68%
               ←─────────────→
           95%
      ←─────────────────────────→
        99.7%
   ←───────────────────────────────→
   
   ─────────────────────────────────────
        -3SD  -2SD  -1SD  Mean  +1SD  +2SD  +3SD
Example Application

If mean sprint time = 5.16s and SD = 0.04s:

  • ~68% of times fall between 5.12s and 5.20s (5.16 ± 0.04)

  • ~95% of times fall between 5.08s and 5.24s (5.16 ± 0.08)

  • ~99.7% of times fall between 5.04s and 5.28s (5.16 ± 0.12)

3.5 Coefficient of Variation (CV%)

Definition

The coefficient of variation expresses the standard deviation as a percentage of the mean. It allows comparison of variability between variables with different units or scales.

Formula
CV% = (SD ÷ Mean) × 100
Calculation Example

Mean = 5.16 seconds, SD = 0.04 seconds

CV% = (0.04 ÷ 5.16) × 100 = 0.78%

Interpretation: The typical variation is 0.78% of the mean value.

Uses of CV%

Use

Application

Compare variability across different measures

Compare reliability of sprint test vs vertical jump

Assess reliability

Lower CV% = better reliability

Compare between studies

Standardized measure of variability

Normalize variability

Removes influence of different measurement scales

CV% Interpretation for Reliability

CV%

Reliability

< 3%

Excellent

3 - 5%

Good

5 - 10%

Moderate

> 10%

Poor

Advantage of CV%

Example: Comparing variability of two different tests:

Test

Mean

SD

CV%

Sprint time

5.16s

0.04s

0.78%

Vertical jump

55 cm

3.5 cm

6.4%

Raw SD values (0.04 vs 3.5) are not comparable because units differ. But CV% shows sprint time (0.78%) is more consistent than vertical jump (6.4%).


4. PRESENTING DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

4.1 Standard Format

The most common way to present descriptive statistics:

Mean ± SD

Examples:

  • Sprint time: 5.16 ± 0.04 seconds

  • VO2max: 52.3 ± 4.8 mL/kg/min

  • 1RM bench press: 85.5 ± 12.3 kg

4.2 Complete Descriptive Summary

Statistic

Symbol

Example Value

Sample size

n

25

Mean

5.16 s

Standard deviation

SD

0.04 s

Minimum

Min

5.08 s

Maximum

Max

5.25 s

Range

Range

0.17 s

Coefficient of variation

CV%

0.78%

4.3 Reporting in Tables

Example Table:

Variable

n

Mean

SD

Min

Max

40m sprint (s)

25

5.16

0.04

5.08

5.25

Vertical jump (cm)

25

55.2

3.5

48

63

VO2max (mL/kg/min)

25

52.3

4.8

42.5

61.2


5. PERCENTAGE CHANGE

5.1 Definition

Percentage change quantifies the relative change between two measurements, typically pre- and post-intervention. It expresses change as a proportion of the original value.

5.2 Formula

% Change = [(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100

Or equivalently:

% Change = [(New Value - Original Value) ÷ Original Value] × 100

5.3 Calculation Examples

Example 1: Improvement in VO2max
  • Pre-training VO2max: 48.0 mL/kg/min

  • Post-training VO2max: 52.5 mL/kg/min

% Change = [(52.5 - 48.0) ÷ 48.0] × 100
% Change = [4.5 ÷ 48.0] × 100
% Change = 0.09375 × 100
% Change = +9.4%

Interpretation: VO2max improved by 9.4%

Example 2: Improvement in Sprint Time (Decrease = Improvement)
  • Pre-training 40m sprint: 5.50 seconds

  • Post-training 40m sprint: 5.35 seconds

% Change = [(5.35 - 5.50) ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = [-0.15 ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = -0.0273 × 100
% Change = -2.7%

Interpretation: Sprint time decreased (improved) by 2.7%

Note: For measures where LOWER is better (times, errors), negative % change indicates improvement.

Example 3: Decrease in Body Fat
  • Pre: 18% body fat

  • Post: 15% body fat

% Change = [(15 - 18) ÷ 18] × 100
% Change = [-3 ÷ 18] × 100
% Change = -16.7%

Interpretation: Body fat decreased by 16.7%

5.4 Interpreting Percentage Change

% Change

Interpretation

Positive (+)

Increase from pre to post

Negative (-)

Decrease from pre to post

Zero (0)

No change

Direction and meaning depend on variable:

Variable

Improvement Direction

Example

VO2max

Positive (+)

+8% = 8% improvement

Sprint time

Negative (-)

-3% = 3% improvement (faster)

1RM strength

Positive (+)

+15% = 15% improvement

Body fat %

Negative (-)

-10% = 10% improvement (leaner)

Errors

Negative (-)

-25% = 25% improvement

5.5 Meaningful Change

Critical consideration: Is the percentage change REAL (greater than measurement error)?

Principle

Application

Compare to typical error

Change must exceed typical error to be meaningful

Smallest worthwhile change

Minimum change that matters practically

Confidence intervals

Express uncertainty in the estimate

Example:

  • If typical error (CV%) for VO2max testing = 3%

  • Observed change = +5%

  • This change (5%) exceeds typical error (3%), suggesting REAL improvement

5.6 Group Mean Percentage Change

When reporting group results, there are two approaches:

Approach 1: Mean of Individual % Changes

Calculate % change for each individual, then average:

Athlete

Pre

Post

% Change

1

48.0

52.0

+8.3%

2

52.0

55.0

+5.8%

3

45.0

49.5

+10.0%

Mean

+8.0%

Approach 2: % Change in Group Means

Calculate group means, then % change:

  • Pre mean = 48.3 mL/kg/min

  • Post mean = 52.2 mL/kg/min

  • % Change = +8.1%

Note: These two approaches may give slightly different results. Be consistent and report which method was used.

5.7 Absolute Change vs Percentage Change

Measure

Formula

Example

Absolute change

Post - Pre

52.5 - 48.0 = 4.5 mL/kg/min

Percentage change

[(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100

+9.4%

Both are useful:

  • Absolute change: Actual units of improvement

  • Percentage change: Relative to starting point; allows comparison across different baselines

5.8 Baseline Dependency

Important consideration: Same absolute change = different percentage change depending on baseline.

Example:

Athlete

Pre VO2max

Absolute Change

% Change

A

40 mL/kg/min

+4

+10%

B

60 mL/kg/min

+4

+6.7%

Same absolute improvement (+4 mL/kg/min), but different percentage change due to different starting points.


6. INFERENTIAL STATISTICS: T-TESTS

6.1 Purpose of Inferential Statistics

While descriptive statistics summarize data, inferential statistics allow us to:

Purpose

Description

Make inferences

Draw conclusions about populations from samples

Test hypotheses

Determine if results are due to chance or real effects

Estimate parameters

Estimate population values from sample data

Compare groups

Determine if differences between groups are statistically significant

6.2 Key Concepts

Hypothesis Testing

Term

Definition

Null hypothesis (H₀)

There is NO real difference or effect (any observed difference is due to chance)

Alternative hypothesis (H₁ or Hₐ)

There IS a real difference or effect

Statistical test

Procedure to determine which hypothesis is supported

p-value

Probability of observing results if H₀ is true

Significance level (α)

Threshold for rejecting H₀ (typically 0.05)

The Logic of Hypothesis Testing
1. Assume H₀ is true (no real difference)
         ↓
2. Calculate probability of observed results if H₀ is true (p-value)
         ↓
3. If p-value is very small (< α), reject H₀
         ↓
4. Conclude there IS a real difference (accept H₁)
p-value Interpretation

p-value

Interpretation

p < 0.001

Extremely strong evidence against H₀

p < 0.01

Very strong evidence against H₀

p < 0.05

Strong evidence against H₀; statistically significant

p ≥ 0.05

Insufficient evidence to reject H₀; not statistically significant

Type I and Type II Errors

Error Type

Definition

Probability

Type I (α)

Rejecting H₀ when it's actually true (false positive)

Equal to α (typically 0.05)

Type II (β)

Failing to reject H₀ when it's actually false (false negative)

Related to statistical power

6.3 What Is a T-Test?

A t-test is a statistical test used to determine whether the difference between two means is statistically significant. It produces a t-statistic, which is compared to critical values to determine significance.

When to Use T-Tests

Situation

Appropriate T-Test

Compare one group to a known value

One-sample t-test

Compare two independent groups

Independent samples t-test

Compare same group at two time points

Paired (dependent) samples t-test

6.4 Assumptions of T-Tests

Assumption

Description

What If Violated?

Continuous data

Dependent variable is interval or ratio

Use non-parametric test

Normal distribution

Data approximately normally distributed

Robust with n > 30; else use non-parametric

Independence

Observations are independent

Use paired test if related

Equal variances (independent t-test)

Groups have similar variances

Use Welch's t-test

6.5 Independent Samples T-Test

Purpose

Compare the means of two separate, unrelated groups to determine if they differ significantly.

When to Use
  • Treatment group vs control group

  • Males vs females

  • Sport A vs Sport B

  • Any comparison of two independent groups

Example Research Question

"Does a new training program improve sprint performance compared to standard training?"

  • Group 1 (Experimental): 15 athletes using new program

  • Group 2 (Control): 15 athletes using standard program

  • Dependent variable: Post-intervention 40m sprint time

Hypotheses

Hypothesis

Statement

H₀

There is no difference between group means (μ₁ = μ₂)

H₁

There is a difference between group means (μ₁ ≠ μ₂)

Formula (Conceptual)
t = (Mean₁ - Mean₂) ÷ Standard Error of Difference

Where Standard Error depends on:
- Standard deviations of both groups
- Sample sizes of both groups

The full formula is:

t = (x̄₁ - x̄₂) ÷ √[(s₁²/n₁) + (s₂²/n₂)]
Example Calculation

Group

n

Mean

SD

Experimental

15

5.15s

0.12s

Control

15

5.28s

0.14s

Step 1: Calculate Standard Error
SE = √[(0.12²/15) + (0.14²/15)]
SE = √[(0.0144/15) + (0.0196/15)]
SE = √[0.00096 + 0.00131]
SE = √0.00227
SE = 0.048

Step 2: Calculate t-statistic
t = (5.15 - 5.28) ÷ 0.048
t = -0.13 ÷ 0.048
t = -2.71
Interpreting Results
  1. Calculate degrees of freedom: df = n₁ + n₂ - 2 = 15 + 15 - 2 = 28

  2. Look up critical t-value or calculate p-value

  3. If |t| > critical value OR p < 0.05, result is statistically significant

For t = -2.71 with df = 28, p ≈ 0.011

Conclusion: p < 0.05, so we reject H₀. The experimental group is significantly faster than the control group.

Reporting Independent T-Test Results

Example format: "The experimental group (M = 5.15s, SD = 0.12) was significantly faster than the control group (M = 5.28s, SD = 0.14), t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011."

6.6 Paired (Dependent) Samples T-Test

Purpose

Compare the means of the same group at two different time points (e.g., pre-test and post-test) to determine if there is a significant change.

When to Use
  • Pre-test vs post-test comparisons

  • Before vs after intervention

  • Same subjects tested under two conditions

  • Matched pairs designs

Example Research Question

"Does 8 weeks of plyometric training significantly improve vertical jump height?"

  • Measurement 1: Pre-training vertical jump

  • Measurement 2: Post-training vertical jump (same athletes)

Why "Paired"?

Each pre-test value is paired with its corresponding post-test value from the same individual. This pairing reduces error by accounting for individual differences.

Hypotheses

Hypothesis

Statement

H₀

Mean difference = 0 (no change from pre to post)

H₁

Mean difference ≠ 0 (significant change from pre to post)

Formula (Conceptual)
t = Mean Difference ÷ Standard Error of Mean Difference

t = d̄ ÷ (SD_d ÷ √n)

Where:
d̄ = mean of the differences (post - pre for each individual)
SD_d = standard deviation of the differences
n = number of pairs
Example Calculation

Athlete

Pre (cm)

Post (cm)

Difference (d)

1

52

56

+4

2

48

50

+2

3

55

60

+5

4

50

53

+3

5

53

58

+5

6

49

52

+3

7

51

54

+3

8

54

59

+5

Mean

51.5

55.25

+3.75

SD

1.16

Step 1: Calculate mean difference
d̄ = (4+2+5+3+5+3+3+5) ÷ 8 = 30 ÷ 8 = 3.75 cm

Step 2: Calculate SD of differences
SD_d = 1.16 cm (calculated from individual differences)

Step 3: Calculate Standard Error
SE = SD_d ÷ √n = 1.16 ÷ √8 = 1.16 ÷ 2.83 = 0.41

Step 4: Calculate t-statistic
t = d̄ ÷ SE = 3.75 ÷ 0.41 = 9.15
Interpreting Results
  1. Degrees of freedom: df = n - 1 = 8 - 1 = 7

  2. For t = 9.15 with df = 7, p < 0.001

Conclusion: p < 0.001, so we reject H₀. There is a statistically significant improvement in vertical jump following the training program.

Reporting Paired T-Test Results

Example format: "Vertical jump height significantly increased from pre-training (M = 51.5 cm, SD = 2.5) to post-training (M = 55.25 cm, SD = 3.4), t(7) = 9.15, p < 0.001. The mean improvement was 3.75 cm (95% CI: 2.78 to 4.72)."

6.7 One-Sample T-Test

Purpose

Compare a sample mean to a known or hypothesized population value to determine if the sample differs significantly from that value.

When to Use
  • Compare sample to established norm

  • Compare sample to target/threshold value

  • Test if sample differs from a specific number

Example Research Question

"Does our team's average VO2max differ from the national average of 55 mL/kg/min?"

Formula
t = (x̄ - μ) ÷ (s ÷ √n)

Where:
x̄ = sample mean
μ = population/hypothesized value
s = sample standard deviation
n = sample size
Example
  • Sample mean = 58.5 mL/kg/min

  • Hypothesized value = 55 mL/kg/min

  • Sample SD = 6.2 mL/kg/min

  • n = 20

t = (58.5 - 55) ÷ (6.2 ÷ √20)
t = 3.5 ÷ (6.2 ÷ 4.47)
t = 3.5 ÷ 1.39
t = 2.52

For df = 19 and t = 2.52, p ≈ 0.021

Conclusion: Our team's VO2max (58.5) is significantly higher than the national average (55), p = 0.021.

6.8 Summary of T-Test Types

T-Test Type

Groups

Purpose

Example

One-sample

1 sample vs known value

Compare to standard/norm

Team vs national average

Independent

2 separate groups

Compare different groups

Treatment vs control

Paired

1 group, 2 times

Compare pre vs post

Before and after training


7. STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE VS PRACTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

7.1 The Distinction

Concept

Definition

Question Answered

Statistical significance

Result unlikely due to chance alone (p < 0.05)

"Is the difference REAL?"

Practical significance

Result meaningful in real-world application

"Is the difference IMPORTANT?"

7.2 Why the Distinction Matters

A result can be:

Scenario

Statistically Significant

Practically Significant

1

Yes

Yes

2

Yes

No

3

No

Potentially yes

4

No

No

7.3 The Problem with Large Samples

With large sample sizes, even trivially small differences can be statistically significant.

Example:

  • Group A mean = 5.15s (n = 500)

  • Group B mean = 5.17s (n = 500)

  • Difference = 0.02 seconds

With n = 1000 total, this tiny difference (0.02s) might yield p < 0.01. But is 0.02 seconds practically meaningful in a 40m sprint? Probably not.

7.4 Effect Size

Effect size quantifies the magnitude of the difference independent of sample size.

Cohen's d

The most common effect size measure for comparing two means.

Formula:

Cohen's d = (Mean₁ - Mean₂) ÷ Pooled SD

Where Pooled SD = √[(SD₁² + SD₂²) ÷ 2]

Interpretation (Cohen's conventions):

Cohen's d

Effect Size

0.2

Small

0.5

Medium

0.8

Large

> 1.2

Very large

Example Calculation
  • Experimental group: Mean = 5.15s, SD = 0.12s

  • Control group: Mean = 5.28s, SD = 0.14s

Step 1: Calculate pooled SD
Pooled SD = √[(0.12² + 0.14²) ÷ 2]
Pooled SD = √[(0.0144 + 0.0196) ÷ 2]
Pooled SD = √[0.017]
Pooled SD = 0.13

Step 2: Calculate Cohen's d
Cohen's d = (5.15 - 5.28) ÷ 0.13
Cohen's d = -0.13 ÷ 0.13
Cohen's d = -1.0

Interpretation: |d| = 1.0, which is a large effect. The experimental group performed substantially better (faster).

7.5 Reporting Both Statistical and Practical Significance

Good practice: Report p-value AND effect size.

Example: "The experimental group (M = 5.15s, SD = 0.12) was significantly faster than the control group (M = 5.28s, SD = 0.14), t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011, Cohen's d = 1.0. This represents a large effect."


8. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (Continued)

8.3 Formula for 95% CI (for means)

95% CI = Mean ± (t-critical × Standard Error)

Where:
Standard Error (SE) = SD ÷ √n
t-critical = value from t-distribution for 95% confidence and given df

For large samples (n > 30), t-critical ≈ 1.96

8.4 Calculation Example

Data:

  • Mean vertical jump = 55 cm

  • SD = 5 cm

  • n = 25

Step 1: Calculate Standard Error
SE = SD ÷ √n = 5 ÷ √25 = 5 ÷ 5 = 1.0 cm

Step 2: Find t-critical (df = 24, 95% confidence)
t-critical ≈ 2.064

Step 3: Calculate 95% CI
95% CI = 55 ± (2.064 × 1.0)
95% CI = 55 ± 2.06
95% CI = 52.94 to 57.06 cm

Reporting: "Mean vertical jump was 55 cm (95% CI: 52.9 to 57.1 cm)"

8.5 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means

When comparing two groups, we can calculate a CI for the difference between their means.

Key interpretation: If the 95% CI for the difference does NOT include zero, the difference is statistically significant at p < 0.05.

Example

Group

Mean

SD

n

Experimental

5.15s

0.12s

15

Control

5.28s

0.14s

15

  • Mean difference = 5.15 - 5.28 = -0.13s

  • SE of difference = 0.048 (calculated previously)

  • 95% CI = -0.13 ± (2.048 × 0.048) = -0.13 ± 0.098

95% CI = -0.228 to -0.032 seconds

Interpretation: The CI does NOT include zero (-0.228 to -0.032), so the difference is statistically significant. The experimental group is significantly faster by 0.03 to 0.23 seconds.

8.6 Advantages of Confidence Intervals

Advantage

Explanation

Shows precision

Narrow CI = precise estimate; wide CI = imprecise

Shows uncertainty

Acknowledges sampling variability

Includes effect size

Shows magnitude of difference, not just significance

More informative than p-value

Provides range of plausible values

Easy significance test

If CI excludes zero, result is significant

8.7 Interpreting CI Width

CI Width

Indicates

Influenced By

Narrow

Precise estimate

Large sample size; low variability

Wide

Imprecise estimate

Small sample size; high variability


9. CORRELATION

9.1 Definition

Correlation measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. It indicates how well one variable predicts the other.

9.2 Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r)

Properties

Property

Description

Range

-1 to +1

Sign

Positive (+) = variables move together; Negative (-) = variables move opposite

Magnitude

Closer to ±1 = stronger relationship; closer to 0 = weaker relationship

No units

Dimensionless measure

Interpretation of r Values

r Value

Strength of Relationship

0.90 - 1.00

Very strong

0.70 - 0.89

Strong

0.50 - 0.69

Moderate

0.30 - 0.49

Weak

0.00 - 0.29

Very weak or none

Same interpretation for negative values (e.g., r = -0.85 is a strong negative correlation)

Visual Representation
POSITIVE CORRELATION (r = +0.85)     NEGATIVE CORRELATION (r = -0.80)
        Y                                     Y
        │       ●●                            │  ●●
        │     ●●                              │    ●●
        │   ●●                                │      ●●
        │ ●●                                  │        ●●
        │●                                    │          ●●
        └─────────── X                        └─────────── X

NO CORRELATION (r = 0.05)
        Y
        │    ●    ●
        │  ●   ●    ●
        │    ●   ●
        │ ●    ●   ●
        │   ●    ●
        └─────────── X

9.3 Coefficient of Determination (r²)

Definition

r² (r-squared) represents the proportion of variance in one variable explained by the other variable.

Formula
r² = r × r
Interpretation

r

Interpretation

0.90

0.81

81% of variance explained

0.70

0.49

49% of variance explained

0.50

0.25

25% of variance explained

0.30

0.09

9% of variance explained

Example

If correlation between VO2max and 5km run time is r = -0.85:

  • r² = 0.72

  • Interpretation: 72% of the variance in 5km time can be explained by VO2max. The remaining 28% is due to other factors (pacing, running economy, psychology, etc.)

9.4 Correlation in Sport Science Applications

Application

Example Variables

Expected r

Criterion validity

Field test vs gold standard

r > 0.80 desired

Test-retest reliability

Trial 1 vs Trial 2

r > 0.90 desired

Performance prediction

VO2max vs endurance performance

r = 0.70-0.90

Construct validity

Two measures of same construct

r > 0.70

9.5 Important Cautions

Caution

Explanation

Correlation ≠ causation

A strong correlation does not prove one variable causes the other

Linear relationships only

Pearson r only detects linear relationships; may miss curvilinear

Outliers affect r

Single extreme values can inflate or deflate correlation

Restricted range

Limited variability in one variable reduces r

Spurious correlations

Third variable may explain relationship


10. STANDARD ERROR OF MEASUREMENT (SEM)

10.1 Definition

Standard Error of Measurement (SEM) quantifies the typical error in individual measurements — the amount by which a measured score might differ from the true score due to measurement error.

10.2 Formula

SEM = SD × √(1 - ICC)

Or alternatively:

SEM = SD × √(1 - r)

Where:
SD = standard deviation of the measure
ICC = intraclass correlation coefficient (reliability)
r = test-retest reliability coefficient

10.3 Example Calculation

Data:

  • SD of vertical jump scores = 5 cm

  • Test-retest reliability (ICC) = 0.95

SEM = 5 × √(1 - 0.95)
SEM = 5 × √0.05
SEM = 5 × 0.224
SEM = 1.12 cm

Interpretation: Individual measurements typically vary by about ±1.1 cm due to measurement error.

10.4 Using SEM

True Score Estimation

If an athlete scores 55 cm on vertical jump (SEM = 1.1 cm):

  • 68% confidence: True score is 55 ± 1.1 = 53.9 to 56.1 cm

  • 95% confidence: True score is 55 ± (1.96 × 1.1) = 52.8 to 57.2 cm

Minimum Detectable Change (MDC)

The smallest change that can be confidently detected as real (not error):

MDC₉₅ = SEM × 1.96 × √2 = SEM × 2.77

Example: SEM = 1.1 cm

  • MDC₉₅ = 1.1 × 2.77 = 3.05 cm

Interpretation: A change of at least 3.05 cm is needed to be 95% confident the change is real.


11. PRESENTING STATISTICAL RESULTS

11.1 Reporting Conventions

Descriptive Statistics
Mean ± SD (or Mean (SD))

Example: "Sprint time was 5.16 ± 0.12 seconds"
T-Test Results
t(df) = t-value, p = p-value

Example: "t(28) = 2.71, p = 0.011"
With Effect Size
t(df) = t-value, p = p-value, Cohen's d = effect size

Example: "t(28) = 2.71, p = 0.011, d = 1.0"
With Confidence Interval
Mean difference = X (95% CI: lower to upper)

Example: "The experimental group was 0.13s faster (95% CI: 0.03 to 0.23s)"
Correlation
r = correlation coefficient, p = p-value

Example: "r = 0.85, p < 0.001"

Or with r²:
"r = 0.85 (r² = 0.72), p < 0.001"

11.2 Example Results Section

Descriptive statistics: "Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for all variables. The experimental group (n = 15) had a mean 40m sprint time of 5.15 ± 0.12 seconds, while the control group (n = 15) averaged 5.28 ± 0.14 seconds."

Inferential statistics: "An independent samples t-test revealed that the experimental group was significantly faster than the control group, t(28) = -2.71, p = 0.011. The mean difference of 0.13 seconds (95% CI: 0.03 to 0.23) represents a large effect (Cohen's d = 1.0)."

Pre-post comparison: "A paired samples t-test showed vertical jump height significantly increased from pre-training (M = 51.5 cm, SD = 2.5) to post-training (M = 55.25 cm, SD = 3.4), t(7) = 9.15, p < 0.001. The mean improvement was 3.75 cm (7.3%), representing a large effect (d = 1.27)."

11.3 Tables for Presenting Data

Descriptive Statistics Table

Variable

Experimental (n=15)

Control (n=15)

Mean ± SD

Mean ± SD

40m sprint (s)

5.15 ± 0.12

5.28 ± 0.14

Vertical jump (cm)

58.2 ± 4.5

55.8 ± 5.1

VO2max (mL/kg/min)

54.3 ± 5.2

52.1 ± 4.8

Pre-Post Comparison Table

Variable

Pre

Post

Change

% Change

p-value

VJ (cm)

51.5 ± 2.5

55.3 ± 3.4

+3.8

+7.4%

< 0.001

40m (s)

5.52 ± 0.15

5.38 ± 0.14

-0.14

-2.5%

0.003

VO2max

48.2 ± 4.5

52.8 ± 4.2

+4.6

+9.5%

< 0.001


12. COMMON STATISTICAL MISTAKES

12.1 Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake

Problem

Correction

p-value = probability null is true

p-value is probability of DATA if H₀ true, not probability H₀ is true

Report p-value correctly

p > 0.05 means "no effect"

May be underpowered; absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence

Report effect size and CI

Ignoring practical significance

Statistically significant ≠ practically important

Always report effect size

Using correlation as causation

Correlation does not imply causation

Be cautious with interpretation

Reporting p = 0.000

p-values are never exactly zero

Report as "p < 0.001"

Only reporting significant results

Publication bias; incomplete picture

Report all findings

Comparing groups with % change

Can be misleading with different baselines

Use absolute change or standardized effect

Using wrong t-test

Independent vs paired

Match test to design

Ignoring assumptions

Violations affect validity

Check normality, variance equality

12.2 Key Principle: Statistical vs Practical Significance

Always ask two questions:

  1. Is the difference REAL? (statistical significance — p-value)

  2. Is the difference IMPORTANT? (practical significance — effect size)


13. SUMMARY TABLE: KEY STATISTICAL FORMULAS

Statistic

Formula

Purpose

Mean

x̄ = Σx ÷ n

Central tendency

Standard Deviation

s = √[Σ(x - x̄)² ÷ (n-1)]

Variability

Coefficient of Variation

CV% = (SD ÷ Mean) × 100

Relative variability

Percentage Change

[(Post - Pre) ÷ Pre] × 100

Relative change

Standard Error

SE = SD ÷ √n

Precision of mean

95% Confidence Interval

Mean ± (t × SE)

Range of plausible values

Independent t-test

t = (x̄₁ - x̄₂) ÷ SE_diff

Compare two group means

Paired t-test

t = d̄ ÷ (SD_d ÷ √n)

Compare pre vs post

Cohen's d

d = (M₁ - M₂) ÷ SD_pooled

Effect size

Pearson r

(complex calculation)

Correlation strength

r × r

Variance explained

SEM

SD × √(1 - ICC)

Measurement error


14. EXAM APPLICATION TIPS

14.1 Common Essay Questions

  1. "Calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation for a given dataset" (6-8 marks)

  2. "Explain the difference between statistical significance and practical significance" (6 marks)

  3. "Describe when you would use an independent t-test versus a paired t-test" (6 marks)

  4. "Calculate percentage change and interpret whether the change is meaningful" (8 marks)

  5. "Interpret the results of a t-test and explain what the p-value and effect size tell us" (10 marks)

  6. "Explain how confidence intervals can be used to determine statistical significance" (6 marks)

14.2 Key Definitions to Know

Term

Definition

Mean

Sum of values divided by number of values

Standard deviation

Typical deviation from the mean

Coefficient of variation

SD as percentage of mean

Percentage change

Relative change from pre to post

p-value

Probability of results if null hypothesis is true

Statistical significance

p < 0.05; unlikely due to chance

Effect size (Cohen's d)

Standardized magnitude of difference

Confidence interval

Range likely to contain true value

Independent t-test

Compares two separate group means

Paired t-test

Compares same group at two times

Correlation

Strength and direction of linear relationship

Type I error

Rejecting true null hypothesis (false positive)

Type II error

Failing to reject false null hypothesis (false negative)

14.3 Calculation Practice

Given data: Pre-training 40m sprint times for 6 athletes: 5.45, 5.52, 5.38, 5.61, 5.49, 5.55 seconds

Calculate:

  1. Mean:

Mean = (5.45 + 5.52 + 5.38 + 5.61 + 5.49 + 5.55) ÷ 6
Mean = 33.00 ÷ 6 = 5.50 seconds
  1. Standard Deviation:

Value

Deviation

Squared Deviation

5.45

-0.05

0.0025

5.52

+0.02

0.0004

5.38

-0.12

0.0144

5.61

+0.11

0.0121

5.49

-0.01

0.0001

5.55

+0.05

0.0025

Sum

0

0.0320

Variance = 0.0320 ÷ (6-1) = 0.0064
SD = √0.0064 = 0.08 seconds
  1. CV%:

CV% = (0.08 ÷ 5.50) × 100 = 1.45%
  1. If post-training mean = 5.35 seconds, percentage change:

% Change = [(5.35 - 5.50) ÷ 5.50] × 100
% Change = -2.7% (improvement)

14.4 Interpretation Examples

Example 1: T-test result

"Results: t(18) = 3.45, p = 0.003, d = 1.2"

Interpretation: "The t-test was statistically significant (p = 0.003 < 0.05), indicating the difference between groups is unlikely due to chance. The effect size (d = 1.2) is very large, indicating a substantial practical difference between groups."

Example 2: Correlation result

"Results: r = 0.78, p < 0.001"

Interpretation: "There is a strong positive correlation between the two variables (r = 0.78). This relationship is statistically significant (p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination (r² = 0.61) indicates that 61% of the variance in one variable can be explained by the other."

Example 3: Percentage change with error consideration

"Pre: 52.0 mL/kg/min, Post: 55.5 mL/kg/min, typical error CV = 3%"

Interpretation:

% Change = [(55.5 - 52.0) ÷ 52.0] × 100 = +6.7%
Typical error at pre = 3% × 52.0 = 1.56 mL/kg/min
Change (3.5) > 2 × typical error (3.1)

"The improvement of 6.7% (3.5 mL/kg/min) exceeds twice the typical error, suggesting this represents a real physiological improvement rather than measurement variability."


15. KEY RESEARCHERS TO REFERENCE

Researcher

Contribution

Cohen (1988)

Effect size conventions (d = 0.2, 0.5, 0.8)

Student/Gosset (1908)

Developed the t-test

Fisher (1925)

Modern statistical significance testing

Pearson (1895)

Correlation coefficient

Hopkins (2000)

Sports science reliability statistics

Batterham & Hopkins (2006)

Magnitude-based inferences


16. SUMMARY: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PRINCIPLES

Principle

Application

Mean = typical value

Central point of data; affected by outliers

SD = typical spread

±1 SD contains ~68% of data

CV% = relative variability

Allows comparison across different measures

% Change = relative improvement

Must exceed typical error to be meaningful

p-value < 0.05 = significant

Result unlikely due to chance alone

Effect size = magnitude

Cohen's d: 0.2 small, 0.5 medium, 0.8 large

CI shows precision

If CI excludes zero, result is significant

Statistical ≠ practical

Always report BOTH p-value AND effect size

Independent t-test

Compare TWO DIFFERENT groups

Paired t-test

Compare SAME group at TWO TIMES

Correlation (r)

Strength of relationship; r² = variance explained

Consider measurement error

Change must exceed typical error to be real


17. COMPLETE MEASUREMENT AND TESTING SUMMARY

You have now completed comprehensive notes on all measurement and testing topics:

Topic

Key Content

1. Validity & Reliability

Types of validity (face, content, criterion, construct); reliability measures (ICC, CV%, SEM); standardization principles

2. VO2max Testing

Direct (metabolic cart) vs indirect methods; multistage fitness test; Astrand-Rhyming; protocols and interpretation

3. Strength, Speed, Agility, Flexibility

1RM protocol; 40m sprint; Illinois agility; sit and reach; norms and reliability

4. Lactate Threshold (OBLA)

4 mmol/L concept; incremental protocol; interpolation; training zones; monitoring

5. Statistical Analysis

Mean, SD, CV%, % change; t-tests (independent and paired); p-values; effect size; confidence intervals; correlation