Ind Org 021225

Page 1: Course Logistics

  • Exam Information: Test from Friday will be graded during the week.

  • Grading Policy: Final grade may be curved.

  • Exam Review: Contact the TA via the syllabus to discuss exam results.

  • Next Section: Introduction to game theory as a fundamental concept for Industrial Organization (I.O.).

  • Game Theory Coverage: Will cover both strategic and extensive forms.

Page 2: Oligopoly Overview

  • Definition: Oligopoly consists of a few firms (2-5) in a market, unlike monopoly or perfect competition.

  • Characteristics: Industries typically have fewer firms than perfect competition.

  • Barriers to Entry: May create oligopolistic market structures.

Page 3: U.S. Airline Industry (May 2024)

  • Overview: U.S. carriers operate a total of 105 million seats.

  • Top 10 U.S. Airlines (by seats):

    • American

    • Southwest

    • Delta

    • United

    • Alaska

    • Spirit

    • Frontier

    • JetBlue

    • Allegiant

    • Hawaiian

  • Market Share: Top 4 airlines account for 33% of U.S. capacity.

    • American Airlines: 22,003,673 Seats

    • Delta: 19,258,864 Seats

    • Southwest: 19,643,485 Seats

    • United: 15,874,547 Seats

Page 4: Oligopoly Industry Structure

  • Strategic Interaction: Oligopoly involves the strategic decisions made by firms in relation to competitors.

  • Focus Areas: Understanding output quantity, pricing strategies, and impacts on economic welfare.

Page 5: Game Theory's Role in Industrial Organization

  • Model Development: Various models like Cournot and Bertrand to analyze strategic interactions.

  • Significance: Game theory enhances the accuracy of analysis in I.O. topics.

Page 6: Game Theory in Economics Classes

  • Cartel Dynamics: Discusses incentives for cheating within a cartel structure.

  • Prisoner's Dilemma: Use of this framework to study cartel behaviors and outcomes.

Page 7: Cartel Example – World Diamond Market

  • Market Data:

    • Price, Demand, Total Marginal Revenue, Marginal Cost of diamond market analyzed.

    • Quantities and revenues presented for different price points.

  • Key Figures: Interaction of price and demand across outputs.

Page 8: Market Graph Analysis

  • Graph Insights: Depicts demand, marginal revenue, and marginal cost for diamonds.

  • Visualization: Trends in price against number of diamonds sold.

Page 9: Competitive Equilibrium of Diamonds

  • Conditions: Characterized by many small sellers and identical products.

  • Equilibrium Findings:

    • Quantity = 12,000 diamonds

    • Price = $1,000

    • Total Revenue = $12 million

    • Profit = $0

Page 10: Monopoly Equilibrium for Diamonds

  • Single Seller Scenario: Monopoly with barriers influences pricing.

  • Equilibrium Findings:

    • Quantity = 6,000 diamonds

    • Price = $7,000

    • Total Revenue = $42 million

    • Profit = $36 million

Page 11: Duopoly Cartel Dynamics

  • Seller Setup: Two dominant sellers with identical products.

  • Equilibrium Statistics:

    • Total quantity sold = 6,000 diamonds

    • Market price = $7,000

    • Revenue per seller = $21 million

    • Profit per seller = $18 million

Page 12: Cheating Cartel Scenario

  • Seller Actions: Russia and South Africa's actions in diamond market explored.

  • Outcomes:

    • Total quantity = 7,000 diamonds

    • Market price = $6,000

    • Revenue for Russia = $24 million; Profit = $20 million

    • Revenue for South Africa = $18 million; Profit = $15 million

Page 13: Response to Cheating

  • Retaliation Example: South Africa responding to Russian cheating in production.

  • New Dynamics:

    • Total quantity = 8,000 diamonds

    • Market price = $5,000

    • Revenue for both parties = $20 million; Profit = $16 million

Page 14: Dynamic Changes in Production

  • Continuing Competition: Russia increases diamond output to 5,000.

  • Market Outcomes:

    • Total quantity = 9,000 diamonds

    • Market price = $4,000

    • Profits analyzed for both sellers.

Page 15: Stable Cartel Dynamics

  • Equilibrium Reached: Discussion on stability when firms avoid excess production.

  • Revenue Consistency: Both firms maintaining total output at 4,000 diamonds to sustain profits.

Page 16: Prisoners’ Dilemma Matrix

  • Nash Equilibrium Context: Evaluates collusive strategies versus cheating decisions in matrix form.

  • Framework: Assessing outcomes based on each player’s choice to collude or defect.

Page 17: Game Theory Framework

  • Game Structure: Analysis of player strategies (collude or defect) in the diamond example.

  • Dynamic Play: Differentiation between one-shot and repeated game strategies.

Page 18: Information Structures in Games

  • Perfect vs Imperfect Information: Understanding how the knowledge of player actions influences the game's outcome.

  • Game Characteristics: Symmetric vs asymmetric structure affecting strategy dynamics.

Page 19: Interactive Participation

  • Group Dynamics: Encouraging analysis through participation in decision consequences.

Page 20: Strategy & Equilibrium Concepts

  • Dominant Strategies: Definition and implications when players have clear best choices.

  • Nash Equilibrium: Conditions for achieving best outcomes based on opponents' strategies.

Page 21: Zero Sum Game Example

  • Competitive Analysis: Two ice cream trucks serving customers - crucial strategic placement mutual exclusivity.

Page 22: Static Zero Sum Game Exploration

  • Equilibrium Inquiry: Investigating dominant strategy and equilibrium existence in a matrix format.

Page 23: Static Non-Zero Sum Game

  • Profits Evaluation: General Electric vs. Westinghouse case analyzing pricing strategies and resulting profits.

Page 24: Escape Scenario in Prisoner’s Dilemma

  • Nash Equilibrium Outcome: Instances showing shifts in strategy under severe pressure.

Page 25: Evaluating Poor Strategies

  • Payoff Orientation: Matrix analyzing poor decisions and their impacts on profits for two competing firms.

Page 26: Dominated Strategies Effects

  • Equilibrium Search: Relationships between different strategies indicated through domination elimination.

Page 27: New Game Dynamics

  • Exploration of Mixed Equilibrium: Matrix exemplifying behavior under steady-state conditions.

Page 28: Mixed Strategy Analysis for Burger Game

  • Example Adoption: McDonald's and Burger King's mixed strategy outcomes amidst incomplete information in their operational choices.

Page 29: Algebra in Mixed Strategy Equilibria

  • Mathematical Framework: Equating the firms' probabilities to derive consistency in strategies and equilibrium determination.

Page 30: Advanced Mixed Strategy Equilibrium Calculations

  • Profit Equations: Employing calculus to determine maximum expected profits amongst competitors.

Page 31: Further Inquiry into BK Solutions

  • Problem Solving: Deepening exploration on resolving strategies among players.

Page 32: Sequential Games Overview

  • Current Trends: Transition from static to sequential ongoing games reflecting real-time decisions among firms.

Page 33: Strategic vs Extensive Game Forms

  • Nash Equilibrium Identification: Complex equilibrium analysis through the strategic representation of decisions.

Page 34: Extensive Form in Entry Deterrence

  • Game Representation: Monopolist's strategies to deter competitor entry elucidated in formal terms.

Page 35: Entry Deterrence Dynamics

  • Profit Scenarios: Evaluating monopolist responses to potential competitive market entries and strategies.

Page 36: Credibility Analysis

  • Rational Strategy Discussion: Exploring whether monopolists can credibly threaten collaboration to deter market entry.