Great Power Politics in the 21st century: US- Russian relations, US-China relations- Part 1

Focus on contemporary relations among great powers.
Key relationships examined:
- The United States and Russia.
- The United States and China.

The end of the Cold War led to antagonistic relations between the US and post-communist Russia.
Settlement has been viewed as a significant contributing factor to these antagonisms.

Ukraine, crucially situated between Russia and the West, serves as a focal point of increasing US-Russia conflict.
Political instability in Ukraine has been instrumental in aggravating tensions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.

Discussed disputes between the US, China, and China's neighbors over the South China Sea.

The concept of polarity applied to understand the anti-American coalition led by China and Russia that has strengthened as a result of the Ukraine conflict.

The Cold War, while not a traditional great power war (no direct military conflict), was a significant great power conflict.
It ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent major changes in global politics.

Territorial and State Change
- The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the creation of independent states; territories like Ukraine and Belarus lost their ties to Russia.
- Viewed as a loss by Russian nationalists, including Vladimir Putin, who experienced this loss as territorial and nationalistic regression.
Shift in Distribution of Power
- Transition from a bipolar world (US vs. USSR) to a unipolar world dominated by the United States.
- Russia experienced a decline in global influence despite retaining a nuclear arsenal.
Change in Institutions
- The Warsaw Pact's collapse led to NATO's expansion, including the former Soviet allies, which impacted Russia's influence in Eastern Europe.
- Putin's framing of the Ukraine conflict is linked to the perceived threat of NATO's expansion to Russian sovereignty.
US and Western Gains
- Expansion of NATO contributed to Western military hegemony, and economic reforms in Eastern Europe strengthened Western economic influence.
- Ideological victory with many countries adopting democracy and capitalism, increasing the US's soft power and significance as a superpower.

The debate over NATO's expansion in the mid-1990s raised concerns over containment strategies against Russia.
Arguments for NATO expansion included:
- Keeping Russia out to prevent it from reasserting military influence in Western and Central Europe.
- Ensuring the US remained engaged in European security.
- Constraining a powerful Germany post-reunification.
Counterarguments to NATO expansion focused on:
- The idea that NATO's mission had been accomplished, questioning the need for continued existence.
- Anticipating that NATO expansion would exacerbate tensions with Russia, reinforcing nationalist sentiments within its borders.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 resulted in a power vacuum.
NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe perceived by Russia as re-establishing a containment policy.
Ukraine's strategic importance entwined with its complex historical ties to Russia.

Triggered by President Yanukovych's decision to align Ukraine with Russia instead of signing an agreement with the EU, leading to mass protests.
Resulted in Yanukovych fleeing to Russia and a power shift to a pro-Western government.
Conflicts, fueled by ethnic divisions, intensified as Russia intervened militarily, supporting separatists and annexing Crimea.

After Russia's annexation of Crimea, US and Western powers condemned the actions as violations of international law.
The Obama administration opted for sanctions rather than military response.
Sanctions impaired the Russian economy but failed to reverse its course in Crimea or Eastern Ukraine.

In late 2021, Russia amassed troops at Ukraine's border and demanded NATO assurances regarding Ukraine's neutrality.
Diplomatic efforts were made but ultimately failed to prevent the invasion on February 24, 2022.

Response led by the Biden administration included significant military aid to Ukraine (total of $119 billion as of February 2025, with $64 billion for military support).
Economic sanctions were imposed on Russia; despite initial impacts, a wartime economic adaptation occurred.

Prevent Ukraine's NATO Membership: Maintaining Ukraine's neutrality is a red line for Putin.
Re-establish Russian Influence: Putin seeks to ensure Ukraine remains economically and politically allied to Russia.
Incorporation into Greater Russia: The ultimate ambition lies in integrating Ukraine fully into Russia, mirroring Belarus's relationship with Russia.

Push back against NATO's eastward expansion, revamping the post-Cold War international order.
Undermine NATO's unity and influence in Eastern Europe.

Immediate Protection of Neighbors: Preventing further Russian aggression towards neighboring states.
Defending Democratic Values: Supporting Ukraine as a democracy threatened by authoritarianism.
Signaling to Other Authoritarian Regimes: Demonstrating resolve against potential aggressors such as China, influencing the geopolitical landscape in East Asia.

Shift in US Position: Significant changes under the Biden administration, with a more confrontational stance against Russian aggressions compared to previous administrations.