Study Notes on Incomplete Equalization: The Effect of Tracking in Secondary Education on Educational Inequality

Anders Holm, Mads Meier Jæger, Kristian Bernt Karlson, David Reimer
- a Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
- b SFI – The Danish National Centre for Social Research, Denmark
- c Department of Education, Aarhus University, Denmark

This paper tests whether the existence of vocationally oriented tracks within a traditionally academically oriented upper education system reduces socioeconomic inequalities in educational attainment.
Based on a statistical model of educational transitions and data on two entire cohorts of Danish youth, the findings include:
1. Vocationally oriented tracks are less socially selective than traditional academic tracks.
  1. Attending vocationally oriented tracks negatively affects the likelihood of enrolling in higher education.
2. Vocationally oriented tracks improve access to lower-tier higher education for low-SES (socioeconomic status) students.
A paradox arises: tracking has adverse effects at the micro-level but equalizes educational opportunities at the macro-level.
The possibility of similar mechanisms existing in other educational systems is also discussed.

Research suggests educational systems' institutional organization impacts educational outcomes inequalities.
Attention on educational tracking in creating/maintaining educational inequalities has surged, particularly in Western countries.
U.S. literature indicates that placement in academically oriented tracks does not enhance overall academic achievement but increases gaps in achievement between tracks during high school.
- References: Alexander et al. (1978), Gamoran and Mare (1989), Heyns (1974).
Socioeconomic backgrounds influence track placement, thus reinforcing existing socioeconomic inequalities in educational outcomes.
- Reference: Shavit and Müller (2006).
Similar trends are seen in Japan and Israel, and analyses in Europe examine how secondary education institutional characteristics contribute to educational inequalities.

Tracking involves curricular differentiation and ability grouping, influencing students' institutional environments, learning opportunities, peer groups, and expectations.
Two dimensions of tracking:
1. Sorting of students into tracks
2. Outcomes associated with educational track attendance
Research shows socioeconomic background significantly influences track placement.
Studies report widening between-track achievement gaps and positive effects of academically oriented tracks on subsequent educational outcomes.
- References: Gamoran (1986), Oakes (1986), Pallas et al. (1994).
Tracking can reinforce, neutralize, or reduce educational inequalities; this depends on countries' institutional setups and tracking timing.
- References: Breen and Jonsson (2000), Hanushek and Wößmann (2006).

Distinguishing between the selection of students into tracks and track placement effects is crucial to understand educational systems' contributions to reproductive inequalities.
The paper employs a statistical model to distinguish these effects, particularly focusing on vocational tracks' roles in educational transitions within Denmark.
Vocational tracks may include disadvantaged students or divert them from higher opportunity tracks, aligning with the Effectively Maintained Inequality (EMI) hypothesis.

Denmark features 9 years of compulsory schooling (ages 6-16), followed by optional secondary and higher education.
No tracking during compulsory school, with options post-completion:
1. Leave school
2. Vocational education
3. Upper secondary education
Upper secondary education has two vocational tracks (mercantile and technical) and an academic track (gymnasium).
Vocational education encompasses 3-4 years, alternating between school-based training and apprenticeship.
Completion of any upper secondary track grants eligibility for higher education.

Utilizes Danish administrative registers covering all students who completed compulsory school in 2002 and 2003, enabling tracking through education until 2010.
Excluded students who participated in the late starter track to ensure suitable time windows for analysis.
Analyzed variables include GPA and socioeconomic backgrounds of students linked to parental information.

The analysis includes tracking of students for 7-8 years post-compulsory schooling, assessing two transitions:
1. From compulsory school to secondary education
2. From secondary education to higher education
Sample consists of 66,232 respondents, covering secondary education completion rates and enrollment in higher education.

Student-specific variables include:
1. Gender
2. Birth cohort classifications
3. GPA measures from compulsory and upper secondary education
Family background factors include:
1. Parents’ highest socioeconomic status (SES) via the international socioeconomic index (HISEI)
2. Highest parental education (ISCED scale)
3. Family structure and size
4. Country of origin
Variables detailing travel distance to schools were included for identifying the statistical model.

A multinomial transition framework captures transitions between educational stages, addressing observed and unobserved influencing variables.
Joint probability of transitions is modeled, including distinct educational tracks with corresponding factors.
Allowance for correlated errors across transitions and utilizing latent classes enhances estimates.

Conducts counterfactual analyses to determine educational pathways had vocational education options not existed, predicting their potential choices and outcomes.

Statistical models reveal significant socioeconomic gradients influencing secondary education choices.
Academic track students typically come from more privileged backgrounds, while vocational education students include those from less advantageous backgrounds.

Vocational education completion correlates with a lower likelihood of pursuing higher education, representing substantial diversion effects.

Vocational education attracts disadvantaged students while simultaneously decreasing their likelihood of progressing to higher education levels, representing a paradox.

Findings demonstrate substantial socioeconomic selection influences within Denmark's tracking system, impacting educational outcomes across secondary and higher education.
While vocationally oriented tracks enhance access for disadvantaged students, they are aligned with a propensity for lower enrollment in university programs, encapsulating critical examination points for educational equality discussions.