Public Opinion in Political Science

Chapter 7: Public Opinion

Learning Objectives

  • 7.1 Distinguish between anecdotal and survey evidence.
  • 7.2 List the main factors that produce public-opinion views.
  • 7.3 Explain what can go wrong with polling.
  • 7.4 Explain the intensity factor in structuring public opinion.

Definition and Nature of Public Opinion

What Public Opinion Is and Isn’t
  • Public opinion refers to how citizens view politicians and public policy in the short term. This distinguishes it from long-term ideological commitments or stable societal values. It is often a snapshot, reflecting immediate reactions to events or policy proposals rather than deep-seated principles.
  • This distinguishes it from political culture, which focuses on the deep values and beliefs that underpin government legitimacy, such as a belief in democracy itself or adherence to constitutional principles.
  • Public opinion is aggregate, representing a wide array of conflicting and changing views, often alongside significant ignorance among the populace. For instance, a poll on a complex economic policy might reveal diverse opinions, with many respondents having limited understanding of the policy's intricacies or implications.
The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy Decisions
  • A central question is the extent to which public opinion should influence public policy decisions, especially given its often volatile and uninformed nature.
  • Public opinion may not always reflect the true beliefs of the public, sometimes being swayed by misleading information or emotional appeals.
  • Governments can actively manipulate public opinion to favor their agendas through various means, such as strategic messaging, controlled media narratives, or the selective release of information. This can create a false sense of consensus or support for particular policies.
  • Example: Advertisements run by oil companies may emphasize the positive aspects of petroleum, such as job creation or energy independence, while British Petroleum ran ads post-Deepwater Horizon to highlight their cleanup efforts along the Louisiana coast, attempting to reshape public perception after a major environmental disaster.
  • All governments, democratic or otherwise, are sensitive to changes in public opinion, illustrated by historical figures such as Gandhi in India, who leveraged public sentiment for independence, and the political shifts in the Soviet Union after Stalin, where leaders had to contend with underlying public discontent to maintain stability.

Factors Producing Public-Opinion Views

The Shape of Public Opinion
  • Public opinion is shaped by numerous interrelated factors, varying by social context and the specific issue at hand.
  • An issue's salience indicates significant opinion differences among societal groups, meaning it evokes strong feelings and varied viewpoints across different demographics.
Key Factors Affecting Public Opinion
1. Social Class
  • Social class plays a significant role in shaping public opinion in the U.S., which demonstrates relatively low awareness of class compared to other nations. Perceptions of social mobility and individual success often overshadow class consciousness.
  • Manual workers typically lean Democratic, often due to the party's historical support for labor unions, social safety nets, and economic regulations beneficial to working-class families. In contrast, white-collar workers tend to vote Republican, aligning with policies that favor free markets, lower taxes on income and investments, and less government intervention.
  • Social class can intersect with regional factors, such as the decline of manufacturing in the Rust Belt, underscoring the importance of declining social mobility in America and its impact on political allegiances.
2. Education
  • Education is crucial in shaping public views, often leading to polarized opinions depending on the level and type of education achieved.
  • Generally, higher education correlates with more liberal views on social issues, such as LGBTQ+ rights, environmental protection, and racial equality, due to increased exposure to diverse perspectives and critical thinking skills. Conversely, fiscal policies might invoke more conservative sentiments, particularly among those with advanced degrees in business or economics, who may favor free-market principles.
3. Region
  • Geographic region significantly influences public opinion patterns, with some regions demonstrating stable voting trends reflecting distinct cultural and economic characteristics. For example, the historically conservative South or the consistently liberal Northeast.
  • Regions can showcase core-periphery tensions, reflected in diverse opinions on various issues. Urban centers (cores) often hold more liberal views than surrounding rural areas (peripheries), leading to significant differences on topics like gun control, environmental regulations, and social welfare programs.
4. Religion
  • Religion significantly impacts public opinion, categorized by denomination (e.g., Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Muslim) or levels of religiosity (how devout an individual is).
  • The God Gap in U.S. politics illustrates the rise of the religious right, with religiously observant voters, particularly evangelical Protestants, increasingly aligning with the Republican party, making religion hold considerable sway in political discourse, especially on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
5. Age
  • Age affects public opinion through two frameworks:
    1. Life Cycle Theory - Suggests opinions evolve as individuals grow older. Youth often exhibit more radical views due to less entrenched financial interests and greater openness to social change. Older individuals may lean conservative, influenced by accumulated wealth, traditional values, and a preference for stability.
    2. Generational Theory - Asserts each generation's views are influenced by pivotal historical events during their formative years. For example, those who lived through the Great Depression may prioritize economic security, while those who came of age during the Vietnam War might be more critical of government authority. Events like 9/11 or major economic recessions also leave lasting imprints on a generation's political outlook.
6. Gender
  • Gender shapes public opinion, with women historically leaning more liberal than men, particularly noted since the 1980s. This gender gap is often evident on issues related to social welfare programs, healthcare, gun control, and militarism, where women tend to favor more government intervention and less aggressive foreign policy.
7. Race and Ethnicity
  • Ethnic diversity influences the structuring of public opinion, especially in multiethnic societies. Different ethnic groups often have distinct historical experiences and socioeconomic realities that shape their political attitudes and policy preferences.
  • The evolution of ethnic politics is notable, as African Americans have transitioned from Republican (following the Civil War) to predominantly Democratic voting, largely due to shifts in party platforms regarding civil rights and social justice. Other ethnic groups, such as Hispanic Americans and Asian Americans, also exhibit diverse and evolving voting patterns.
8. Elite and Mass Opinion
  • Elite opinion, held by political leaders, academics, journalists, and other influentials, tends to be more informed, nuanced, and ideologically consistent compared to the often uninformed or fragmented mass opinion. Elites have greater access to information and a stronger incentive to develop coherent political views.
  • Despite this, mass opinion can reflect broad public reactions to governmental policies, serving as a pulse for public sentiment and occasionally mobilizing into significant political forces, even if the underlying understanding of specific issues is limited.

Public-Opinion Polls

What Can Go Wrong with Polling?
  • Opinion polls should not be mistaken for facts; they fluctuate and do not always adhere to predictable patterns because public sentiment is dynamic and influenced by a multitude of rapidly changing factors.
  • Gathering opinions via a representative sample constitutes what is termed a survey or public opinion poll, aiming to reflect the views of a larger population.
Issues with Polling
  • Changing Opinions - Public opinion can be fluid, shifting rapidly in response to new information, events, or media coverage, making a poll a snapshot that can quickly become outdated.
  • Polling Influence - Polls can shape public perception of electoral outcomes, influencing individual voting behaviors through phenomena like the "bandwagon effect" (people vote for the perceived winner) or the "underdog effect" (people vote for the perceived loser out of sympathy).
  • Polling Techniques:
    1. Sampling: A critical phase that can use either:
      • Stratified Quota Sampling: Intends to capture diverse societal group samples by setting targets for specific demographic groups (e.g., a certain percentage of women, minorities, or age groups). While useful for ensuring representation, it can introduce bias if quotas are not accurately determined or if interviewers select respondents who fit the quota within easily accessible groups.
      • Random Sampling: Aims for complete randomness, where every individual in the target population has an equal chance of being selected. This method generally yields more reliable and generalizable results as it minimizes systematic bias.
    2. Reaching the Sample: Challenges arise in effectively reaching the sample, with various methods that vary in reliability.
      • Mail surveys - Quicker to distribute but often with low response rates, leading to potential self-selection bias where only those with strong opinions or more free time respond.
      • Phone surveys - Typically yield less candid responses due to the impersonal nature of the call and can miss random populations (e.g., those without landlines or who screen calls). They also face issues with declining response rates and the increasing number of cell-phone-only households.
    3. Question Wording: Care must be taken to avoid bias during the question framing phase of the survey. Leading questions, emotionally charged language, or double negatives can significantly skew responses (e.g., "Do you agree that wasteful government spending should be cut?" vs. "Do you support efforts to reduce government spending?").
Reliability of Polls
  • Although polls can generally be deemed reliable indicators within their margins of error, one should recognize their inherent limitations.
  • Public opinion's volatile nature frequently complicates accurate polling, as sentiment can change between the polling period and the actual event (e.g., election day).
  • Phone surveys are facing growing reliability issues due to declining landline usage, increased use of caller ID to screen unknown numbers, and general respondent fatigue. Internet surveys, while cost-effective, involve potential selection bias (digital divide, self-selected respondents), pushing the demand for more sophisticated and precision polling methods, often combining multiple techniques.

American Opinion

The Intensity Factor
  • Various metrics characterize American public opinion, including presidential ratings, and distinctions between liberals and conservatives.
  • The attentiveness of the public to political discourse significantly influences the landscape of opinion, as more engaged citizens tend to have firmer, more consistent views.
Presidential Ratings
  • Presidential polls measure levels of support or job approval as opposed to mere popularity. Approval ratings reflect public satisfaction with a president's performance in office.
  • Most presidents begin with high approval ratings during their honeymoon phase, typically the first few months in office where the public gives them the benefit of the doubt, but these ratings tend to decline over time as challenges mount and decisions are made.
  • Events such as wars (e.g., a rally-around-the-flag effect during a national crisis) or significant policy achievements can cause temporary spikes, but these do not sustain long-term approval trends.
  • Speculations exist about presidents manipulating public opinion during strategic times, such as recessions, by orchestrating positive news cycles or launching popular initiatives to distract from economic woes or poor performance.
Distinctions in Political Views
  • Republican successes don’t inherently indicate a shift toward conservatism across the American public, as electoral outcomes can be influenced by candidate appeal, specific issues, or voter turnout patterns. Americans often hold a mix of liberal and conservative views.
  • Notation of differing economic and social liberalism/conservatism is essential when analyzing American attitudes. For instance, an individual might be economically conservative (favoring lower taxes and less regulation) but socially liberal (supporting LGBTQ+ rights and environmental protections) or vice versa.
Attentiveness of the Public
  • The attentive public, comprising approximately 10-20\% of the population, plays a substantial role in shaping public opinion. These politically competent and engaged citizens often consume news, discuss politics, and participate in civic life, thereby motivating engagement and influencing views among broader, potentially apathetic audiences.
  • Fragmented opinions, where major disagreements or lack of consensus exist on key issues, often obscure overall public sentiment, making it challenging to gauge the true public view, as no clear majority emerges.
Polling Fairness
  • Polls can inadvertently shape public opinion and political outcomes. For example, early poll projections of a candidate's high support or lack thereof can influence campaign funding, affect donor decisions, or lead to withdrawals from races if candidates are perceived as having no viable path to victory.
Governance by Polls
  • While polls are a tool for understanding public sentiment, they should not supplant the governance framework. Relying solely on polls for policy decisions is problematic due to inherent polling flaws (e.g., they capture superficial rather than deeply considered opinions, can be manipulated, and do not necessarily reflect public interest or constitutional principles). Elected representatives are expected to exercise judgment and leadership, not merely follow fluctuating public desires.