Blainey 10-16

review

the most key concept are relative power and mutual optimism

emdogeneity

• relative strength

• Chapter 9 War As Accident

  • blainey argument

    • war is not an acciden, it is a choice

    • war is caused by mutual optimism

      • each side thinks they will do better than what is being offered

    • desire for war is always conditional

      • on what the other side is offering uou

      • relative power between two sides

      • actors are comparing the price of peace v the price of war

      • key factors in comparison: nature of status quo/view (peace very costly if you hate status quo, will prefer going to war) or demand being offered

  • arms race and war/do arms races cause war?

    • causal logic: arms race » increase in tension » hostiltiy in actors » war

    • blainey argument: if we are building up arms, then war is more costly for each side, should decrease mutual optimism

      • endogenity (important)

        • could be other things causing arms race and then the war

        • means: reverse causation or omitted confounder

          • reverse causation: peace leads to trade not trade leads to peace

          • omitted confounder: expectations of war leads to arms race leads to war

  • arms race is a symptom of the larger cause

Chapter 10: Aims and Arms

• was the iran-iraq war of 1980-88 political, economic, or religious? what do you think blainey says?

  • example of ambitions and motives are dominant cause of wars

  • example of evergreen examination question, it sucks

• demands and motives are endogenous to relative power

• theories that stress aims

• demands are reflection of relative power which is what is important

Chapter 11

• is one state primarily to blame for war in most cases

• suprise attacks are common because war starts with attack and then announcement

• russo japanese war

  • important: third party expectations, japan allies with brit

Chapter 12 Vendetta of the black sea

• what produced repeated war between russia and ottoman empire

• portrayed as religious issue, blainey does not agree

• key factor is actually decay and weaking of ottoman empire

• why was rhere disagreement about relative power

  • how can you measure power? —> what is power?

  • how is mutual optimism possible

    • both actors over estimate their power/anything that makes u overestimate your power leads to outbreak of war

chapter 13 long wars

• general v bilateral

• why do some wars last longer than other

  • military size and stuff, relative power + mutual optimism

chapter 14 short wars

• why were most wars short after battle of waterloo

• changes in military technology organization

  • rifles

  • machine gun

  • railroad

• how is mutual optimism possible

  • both actors over estimate their power/anything that makes u overestimate your power leads to outbreak of war

Chapter 15 mystery of wide wars

• wars likely if major economic center is about to change bc major power is involved and about to lose

• change status quo, hiearchy of power more uncertainty about relationships

Chapter 16 audstralias pacific war

• everyone wants peace dependent on the conditions/demands of them

• experience of war, victorious=more war not victorious= less

Chapter 17

argues imabalnce of power is associated with peace and a balance of power with conflict

why are nuclear weapons not promoting violent conflict

peace movement can promote war

• peace makes adversary think you are weak without resolve and then promotes attack