FUTURES


1. Introduction to Futures in Planning

  • Definition: Futures in planning refer to the processes and methods used to envision, anticipate, and shape future urban and regional developments. It involves creating scenarios, visions, and strategies to guide long-term planning and decision-making.

2. Key Readings and Theories

  • Davoudi, S. (2023): "Prefigurative Planning: Performing Concrete Utopias in the Here and Now"

    • Prefigurative Planning: The concept of performing the future in the present by envisioning and enacting concrete utopias.

    • Concrete Utopias: Action-based visions that are grounded in the present and aim to realize not-yet-realized possibilities.

  • PBL (2019): "Building Scenarios for Environmental, Nature and Spatial Planning Policy"

    • Scenario Building: The process of creating and using scenarios to explore different future possibilities and inform planning decisions.

    • Guidance Document: Provides a framework for building and using scenarios in environmental and spatial planning.

  • PBL (2019): "Using Scenarios for Environmental, Nature and Spatial Planning Policy"

    • Scenario Application: Discusses how scenarios can be used to guide policy decisions and planning strategies.

    • Guidance Document: Offers practical advice on integrating scenarios into planning processes.

3. Engaging with the Future in Planning

  • Time as a Social Construct:

    • Futures are socially constructed and can be changed through planning and decision-making.

    • Planning brings the future to the present by making decisions that shape long-term outcomes.

  • Imagination and Futures:

    • Imagination is used to construct collective visions of the future.

    • Futures are plural and contested, reflecting diverse perspectives and interests.

  • Politics of Future Planning:

    • The power to produce and present futures is unevenly distributed.

    • Some futures may remain invisible due to power imbalances and exclusionary practices.

4. Prefigurative Planning

  • Definition: Prefigurative planning involves imagining the future city that planners want to achieve and performing it in the present. It focuses on the journey rather than the destination.

  • Key Concepts:

    • Negating the Given: Challenging assumptions and envisioning alternative futures.

    • Concrete Utopias: Action-based visions that address present issues and aim to realize not-yet-realized possibilities.

  • Examples:

    • Living Labs: Experimental spaces where new ideas and technologies are tested in real-world settings.

    • Hackathons: Collaborative events where participants develop innovative solutions to planning challenges.

5. Scenario Building and Application

  • Building Scenarios:

    • Steps:

      • Deciding the target audience.

      • Defining the project objectives.

      • Defining the project scope.

      • Scenario or forecast building and deliverables.

      • Method selection.

      • Project organization.

    • Types of Scenarios:

      • Descriptive: Expanding upon certain policies.

      • Normative: Exploring changing values and new policy objectives.

  • Using Scenarios:

    • Application: Integrating scenarios into planning processes to guide policy decisions and strategies.

    • Benefits: Scenarios help planners anticipate future challenges, explore different possibilities, and make informed decisions.

6. Examples and Applications

  • Guest Lecture: Scenario Building with Ed Dammers (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

    • Discusses the process of building and using scenarios in spatial planning and the importance of scenario-based planning.

  • Case Study: Vision for the Future Spatial Plan

    • Description: Develop a vision for a specific urban area using normative scenarios.

    • Steps:

      1. Choose a case and relevant transition.

      2. Generate ideas for the vision.

      3. Describe the desired situation and concrete measures.

      4. Integrate different scenarios and distinguish core and contingent strategies.

7. Key Concepts in Futures Planning

  • Prefiguration: The process of imagining and performing the future in the present.

  • Concrete Utopias: Action-based visions that address present issues and aim to realize not-yet-realized possibilities.

  • Scenario Building: The process of creating and using scenarios to explore different future possibilities and inform planning decisions.

  • Scenario Application: Integrating scenarios into planning processes to guide policy decisions and strategies.