Elections

1979

Results and turnout:

  • Conservative 43 seat majority (339 seats total)

  • Labour-269 seats

  • 76% turnout

Context:

  • Took place after winter of discontent, a period of strikes which damaged the government’s economic policies and standing in the polls. In November 1978, Labour had a 5 point lead in the polls. By February 1979, Conservatives had a 20 point lead.

  • Callaghan lost vote of confidence, triggering election.

Campaigns:

  • Conservatives- Used the “Labour isn’t working” campaign. Thatcher used campaign to meet many people, especially women. Used photo opportunities. Pinned the blame of winter on Labour.

  • Labour- Focused on NHS and employment. Manifesto presented inflation, employment and industrial relations as priority. Claimed Conservatives were a “gamble” and would allow jobs to be lost.

Economy:

  • Following Winter of Discontent which disrupted economy due to strikes in private and public sector trade unions.

  • Growing unemployment and falling growth- Conservative policies on free market attracted middle class voters.

Leadership:

  • Callaghan- Seen as being out of touch after denying industrial crisis. Opinion polls saw him as the better PM

  • Thatcher- More unpopular, polls suggested people favoured the Conservatives over her. Refused to appear on “Weekend World” show with other leaders. Was unpopular as education secretary in early 1970s.

Valence:

  • Many trusted Thatcher/Conservatives to improve UK economy.

  • Labour were seen as having worsened the economic situation (vote of no confidence). Seen as ineffective and weak against unions.

Media:

  • Many press conferences and TV appearances

  • Callaghan- Crisis? What Crisis?

  • Thatcher- Photo ops and appearances to appeal to housewives.

  • Polls consistently predicted a Conservative win.

1997

Results and turnout:

  • 71% turnout

  • Labour- Landslide majority of 178 (418 seats total), 43% of vote

  • Conservative- 165 seats, 30% of vote

  • Lib Dems- 20 seats

Context:

  • A change election- Conservatives had been in power 18 years

  • No economic crisis or social upheaval- there was low unemployment and inflation, and steady growth.

  • Conservatives’ governance was not main cause of Labour’s landslide- likely to be Labour’s rebrand, an attempt to become more electable.

Campaigns:

  • Labour- “New Labour” rebrand. Policies were less radically left wing, appealing to non-historical Labour voters. More typically conservative policies to do with law and order, reducing benefits and freezing income tax. Some controversial policies shifted image of party as more centrist, appealing to centre-right voters. Constitutional reform policies ensured Labour didn’t lose “left” ideas that separated them from Conservatives.

Economy:

  • UK experiencing steady growth and low inflation

  • Economy had little influence on election

Leadership:

  • Blair- Young, relatable, charismatic. Represented new “modern” Labour

  • Major- More traditional, more formal than Blair. Perhaps less modern and didn’t reflect what the country wanted.

Valence:

  • Lack of faith in Conservatives after 5 years of disagreements over EU membership.

  • Frequent infighting between cabinet members may have present Conservatives as more incompetent.

Media:

  • Labour far ahead in the polls

  • Daily newspapers were losing influence on voting behaviour

  • More people using TV news as source of political info

  • New Labour successfully manipulated press into putting out their message

  • Labour used focus group and poll data to formulate a message about issues that the public most cared about.

Social factors:

  • Class- An important factor. 41% ABs voted Conservative and only 31% voted Labour. 50% of C2s and 59% of DEs voted Labour, compare with 27% and 21% for Conservative.

  • Age- Conservatives lost 16% of the 45-54 bracket. Labour increased vote share amongst 18-54 year olds by 10%.

  • Region- Labour increased vote share by minimum of 5 points in every region. Labour dominated in Scotland, North, North West, Yorkshire and Wales, as well as doing very well in the South East and London.

2019

Results and turnout:

  • 67% turnout

  • Conservative 80 seat majority (365 seats total)

  • Labour-203 seats

Context:

  • Johnson wanted to “Get Brexit Done” following May’s resignation. A Conservative minority made this difficult, so a snap election was called in the hopes of winning a majority

Campaigns:

  • Campaigns heavily focused on Brexit

  • Conservatives- Get Brexit Done slogan. Campaigning for hard Brexit

  • Labour- Campaigning for second referendum on Brexit deal. Many saw the Labour manifesto as unrealistic and doubted they could carry it out.

Economy:

Key issues:

  • Poverty among working people

  • Inequality in the housing market

  • Falls in manufacturing and construction industries.

Leadership:

  • 35% of ex-Labour voters decided not to vote in 2019 due to Corbyn

  • Corbyn- Still popular, but antisemitism allegations and weak leadership over Brexit lost him supporters

  • Johnson- Not overwhelmingly liked, supported or trusted, but presented strong leadership and message.

Valence:

  • Labour manifesto seen as unrealistic, people didn’t trust their ability to carry it out.

  • Doubts over Labour’s ability to deal with Brexit, confusing Brexit policy.

  • Johnson presented as having a strong message and being capable of handling Brexit- 73% of leave voters voted Conservative.

Media:

  • Social media campaigning used, created a false idea of Labour winning.

  • Media-based events, such as photo of boy on hospital floor, actually had little impact on voters.

Social Factors:

  • Class- Class and partisan dealignment continued, with the Conservatives even further ahead in social classes C2DE than in 2017, while Labour lost votes amongst all social classes.

  • Region- Conservatives breached the “Red Wall” that had stretched from the border of north Wales to northeast England and Yorkshire, and down to the North Midlands. Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area.

  • Age- Continued to be a key dividing line and had increased even further since 2017. Labour had a 43 point lead amongst voters aged 18-24, but Conservatives had a 47 point lead amongst those aged 65+. Amongst 35-54 year olds there was a 7 point swing to the Conservatives.

  • Ethnicity- Amongst BME voters, Labour led the Conservatives by 64% to 20%, while amongst white voters the Conservatives led by 48% to 29%.

2017

Context:

  • Called by May in hopes of securing a larger majority

  • It was expected to be an easy Conservative win

  • Very focused on Brexit and how it was to be dealt with

  • 1 year after the resignation of Cameron

Results and turnout:

  • Turnout- 69%

  • Conservatives- 317 seats, 42% of vote

  • Labour- 262 seats, 40% of vote

  • Lib Dem- 12 seats, 7% of vote

  • Hung parliament, Confidence and supply agreement formed with DUP

Campaigns:

  • Conservatives- More centrist policies. Manifesto outlined Conservatives’ outrage at “social division, unfairness and inequality” in order to appeal to potential Labour voters. Remained strong supporting hard Brexit and immigration control.

  • Labour- Unclear stance on Brexit and immigration. Corbyn toured country, polls boosted in constituencies he visited. Key pledges: Free childcare for 2-4 YOs, minimum wage increase, free primary school meals and nationalisation of railways and Royal Mail

Leadership:

  • May- Seen as calm and sensible, capable of handling Brexit negotiations. Viewed by some as less charismatic than Corbyn.

  • Corbyn- Campaigned well with large support. Good speaker in front of crowds. Seen as unsuitable for Brexit negotiations.

Economy:

  • Events around election influenced by Brexit and the effect that it was thought it would have on the economy.

Valence:

  • May and Conservatives were more trusted in delivering a hard Brexit, which appealed to many Leave voters.

  • Corbyn was committed to radical (perhaps unrealistic) policies

  • A Labour government was less trusted to handle Brexit.

Media:

  • Labour had successful campaign using social media

  • Opinion polls saw Conservative Party winning comfortably- this was wrong

  • Media bias saw many newspapers in support of May and attacking Corbyn

  • Corbyn’s approval ratings increased following hostile media attacks on him.

Social factors:

  • Class- Showed further evidence of class and partisan dealignment as this was Labour’s best result amongst ABC1 and the Conservative’s best result amongst C2DE since 1979.

  • Ethnicity- Became an even more significant factor. Labour’s lead amongst BME voters increased to 54 points. Labour’s vote share increased even more amongst white voters, but the Conservative share also increased.

  • Age- Even more dividing factor than in 2015. All the swing to Labour was amongst under 44s, while there was a swing to the Conservatives amongst the over 55s.

  • Education- A clear divide. Conservatives had a 17 point lead amongst those with no qualifications and a smaller 7 point lead amongst those educated to below degree level. Labour had a 15 point lead amongst graduates.

2010

Results and turnout:

  • Turnout- 65%

  • No majority (326 seats needed)

  • Conservatives- 258 seats, 36% of vote

  • Labour- 258 seats, 29% of vote

  • Lib Dems- 57 seats, 23% of vote

Context:

  • Two years after 2008 financial crisis

Campaigns:

  • Conservatives- focused on Brown’s “inability” to lead economy following 2008. Pledged severe spending cuts, shift to the right in economic policy.

  • Labour accused of overspending and failing to regulate the banking system.

Leadership:

  • Brown- Popularity was steadily declining. He was perceived as weak, and despite his assured response to the global financial crisis, his popularity never recovered. Poor media performer.

  • Cameron- Initiated the “modernisation” of the Conservative party, polls indicated a Conservative majority. Good media performer

Valence:

  • Labour’s reputation for competent economic management had been undermined.

  • Concern over the Conservatives ability to govern competently and in the interests of ordinary voters. These doubts were linked to a shift to the right in economic policy that had begun in 2007 and meant that the Conservatives fought the election on a commitment to introduce spending cuts. This created concerns that a “double dip” recession would result.

Media:

  • Papers were broadly supportive of the modernised Conservative party under Cameron

  • Cameron seen as more likeable, good media presence

  • Leadership debates propelled Lib Dem leader Clegg into limelight, becoming very popular. Was the first time televised debates had been used.

Social factors:

  • Class- ABC1 voted Conservative over Labour by a margin of over 10 points. This was also true of C2 voters, but with a margin of 8 points. Amongst DE voters, Labour beat the Conservatives by 9 points.

  • Age- Not an overly significant factor. Conservatives did better than Labour in all but the 18-24 age, but even then it was only 30% Conservative to 31% Labour.

  • Region- Scotland stayed with Labour, England swung to the Conservatives and Londo swung to Labour and Lib Dems.