Civil Wars and Contentious Politics

Prescribed Reading

  • D’Anieri, P. 2020. International Politics: Power and Purpose in Global Affairs. 5th ed. USA: Cengage Learning. Chapter 8

Why Domestic Events Matter in IR

  • Challenge the sovereignty and stability of states.
  • Invite foreign intervention (military, humanitarian, economic).
  • Affect regional and global order.
  • Drive refugee flows, arms trade, terrorism, etc.

Political Protest

  • Peaceful vs. Violent.
  • Domestic demands for reform, justice, democracy, or policy change.
  • Role of social media, civil society, and global attention.
  • Examples:
    • Arab Spring (Tunisia, Egypt).
    • Black Lives Matter (U.S., global echo).
    • 2023 Iranian protests.

Structural Causes of Protest (IR Perspective)

  • Economic inequality and neoliberal global economy.
  • Repression and human rights violations.
  • Youth bulges and unemployment.
  • Global norm diffusion: democracy, human rights.

Revolution

  • Definition: Rapid, fundamental political and social transformation.
  • Types:
    • Social revolutions (Marxist, Leninist).
    • Political revolutions (democratic transitions).
  • IR Implications:
    • Disrupt alliances and trade.
    • Threaten regional authoritarian regimes.
    • Influence ideological blocs (e.g., Cold War).

Revolution Case Study: Sudan (2023–2025)

  • Trigger: Failed transition after the fall of al-Bashir (2019) and subsequent military infighting.
  • Nature: Revolutionary efforts against military rule.
  • Status: Civil resistance plus armed conflict (also civil war dimensions).
  • IR Link: African Union mediation, Gulf and global powers jockeying for influence.

Civil War and International Relations

  • Civil war = armed conflict within a state involving organized groups.
  • Often internationalized (e.g., proxy wars, humanitarian intervention).
  • Key international dimensions:
    • Refugee flows.
    • Spillover conflict.
    • Terrorism and transnational actors.

Causes of Civil War

  • Greed vs. Grievance debate.
  • Ethnic/religious identity vs. economic opportunity.
  • Weak state institutions.
  • Natural resources (oil, diamonds).
  • External support for insurgents or governments.

Civil War Example: Ethiopia (Tigray Conflict, 2020–2022; still volatile)

  • Trigger: Tensions between Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government.
  • Status: Ceasefire signed but violence and instability persist.
  • IR Link: Involvement of Eritrea, global calls for humanitarian aid and justice.

Contentious Politics

  • Definition: Interactions in which actors make claims bearing on others' interests and governments respond with repression, concessions, or reform.
  • Encompasses:
    • Protests.
    • Revolutions.
    • Civil wars.
    • Coups.
  • Focus: Power, legitimacy, and contestation.

Why Contentious Politics Matters in IR

  • Challenges state sovereignty.
  • Can alter foreign policy directions (e.g., Iran, Libya).
  • Triggers intervention, sanctions, diplomacy, or humanitarian aid.
  • Spreads norms or destabilizes regions.

Revolution as Contentious Politics

  • Transformative form of contention: aims to replace regimes and political systems.
  • Repertoires: mass mobilization, elite defection, armed struggle.
  • International significance:
    • Threat to status quo powers.
    • Ideological ripple effects.
    • Realignment of alliances.

Civil War as a Form of Contentious Politics

  • Armed conflict between organized groups within a state.
  • Common in weak or failed states.
  • Often draws external actors (e.g., Syria, Ukraine, Libya).
  • Has regional and global security implications.

Domestic–International Linkages in Contentious Politics

  • Domestic unrest is rarely contained:
    • Can trigger refugee flows, terrorism, arms smuggling.
    • Influences foreign policy choices of allies and adversaries.
    • Encourages transnational solidarity (e.g., Arab Spring, Occupy).
    • Diaspora networks and external funding impact domestic dynamics.
  • Example: Russia’s support for separatists in Ukraine.

Impact on International System

  • Foreign interventions and shifting alliances.
  • Recognition struggles (e.g., opposition vs. incumbent govts).
  • Effects on:
    • International law.
    • Trade and investment.
    • Regional blocs (e.g., AU, EU responses to coups).

International Responses and Interventions

  • UN peacekeeping and mediation.
  • R2P (Responsibility to Protect).
  • Great power intervention: strategic, ideological, or humanitarian.
  • Sanctions and diplomatic pressure.