In-depth notes on Russia's Arctic Policy and Military Dynamics

Russia, the Rent-Seeking Revisionist

Event: In July 2007, two Russian nuclear-powered icebreakers embarked on a scientific expedition to the North Pole.
Submarines: The expedition included two Finnish-made research submarines,
- Mir 1: Carried members of the Russian State Duma and a scientist.
- Mir 2: Included an Australian adventurer and a Swedish billionaire.
Flag Planting: On August 2, the crew of Mir 1 planted a Russian flag on the seabed, which was broadcast globally, generating media attention.

Symbolic Gesture: The flag planting was seen as a publicity stunt since it did not confer legal rights to the territory.
Shift in Foreign Policy: This act marked a shift in Russia's approach to the Arctic, as it began projecting military power and enhancing its Arctic presence.
Power Projection: In response, Russian bombers resumed Arctic patrols under orders from President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the Cold War.

Investment: Russia has heavily invested in Arctic military capabilities:
- Creation of an Arctic command.
- Four new Arctic brigade combat teams.
- Establishment of multiple operational airfields and Arctic bases.
Surprise to Analysts: The renewed military focus surprised scholars and policymakers, who had previously regarded Russia as an ally post-9/11.

Historical Context: Before the 2007 shock, military presence in the Arctic was minimal. After 2007, Russia dramatically increased military activity.
Arctic Affairs: Key Russian military activities:
- Increased frequency of patrol flights and military drills in Arctic waters.
- Projecting military force along the borders of other Arctic states, particularly Norway and the U.S.

Concept: Russia’s governing coalition is land-oriented, seeking control over resources to secure future rents.
Dependency: Russia’s economy heavily relies on resource rents from oil and natural gas exports, motivating its aggressive territorial claims in the Arctic.
Political Structure: The coalition consists of oligarchs and former KGB officials with vested interests in resource control.
Economic Choices: Investment decisions favor resource extraction over production or technology development due to the strong need for revenue from land.

Cold War Comparison: Although military activity increased, it remained below Cold War levels, with elements of both cooperation and contestation.
International Relations: Despite military assertions, Russia has engaged with other Arctic nations cooperatively in international organizations like the Arctic Council.
Resource-Bargaining: While pursuing international legal claims, Russia also bolstered its military presence, using both cooperative and coercive strategies to enhance its bargaining position.

Expected Returns: Russia’s leadership views Arctic resources as vital for economic growth and national security.
Strategic Importance: The government has issued various strategic documents emphasizing the Arctic's significance for Russia's future economic development.
Post-2014: Continued investments in military presence alongside cooperation, with some investment, even during periods of low energy prices.

Economic Reinforcement: The continuation of Russia’s Arctic policy ties closely to its dependence on resource rents.
Impact of Leadership Changes: Future policy may shift if leadership changes to someone with less vested interest in maintaining the current autocratic structure focusing on land rents.
Sustained Military Presence: Despite fluctuating energy prices, Russia is unlikely to retreat from military ventures in the Arctic; it perceives critical needs to secure the energy resources under its control.
- Quote: "There’s a widespread impression among ruling elites that there is 'no other choice' for Russia's future but to pursue an Arctic policy." (Marlene Laruelle)