Exam 3 Study Guide: Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Defined as individuals who are 18 years old and, in many states, not charged with a felony.
The voting eligible population is larger than the number of registered voters and those who actually vote.
This indicates that a significant portion of eligible voters do not participate in elections.
"Mandates" are not truly representative due to low voter turnout.
Suffrage expansion, through amendments and laws, aimed to enfranchise Black Americans, women, and 18-year-olds.
However, these legal changes did not automatically guarantee equal access to political participation in practice.

Voting systems aim to reflect majority preferences fairly and rationally.
Arrow's theorem states that it is impossible to create a voting system that perfectly satisfies all fairness criteria.

Most U.S. elections operate on a plurality system.
The candidate with the most votes wins, even without securing an absolute majority.
Typically, only two parties are competitive, increasing the likelihood of a candidate achieving an actual majority.

This refers to the question of why individuals vote, given the minimal impact of a single vote.
Political science suggests that a sense of civic duty or responsibility motivates people to vote.

Older individuals, white individuals, and more educated individuals have higher voter turnout rates.
This disparity may be attributed to barriers to voting that disproportionately affect certain groups.
The most common reason for not voting is being too busy with work or school.

Mail voting has increased convenience and participation, especially since 2020.
Initially, mail voting was more prevalent among Democrats.
After Trump's shift in stance on mail voting security, Republicans have begun using mail-in ballots at similar rates.

On Issues: Some voters make decisions based on specific issues, though this is less common.
Based on Cues: Voters often rely on cues such as party affiliation or rhetoric due to limited information, which lowers the cognitive "cost" of voting.
Party ID: Party identification is the strongest predictor of vote choice, with most people voting along party lines.
Few voters identify as purely independent, and most lean towards one party or the other.

Evaluating the incumbent's performance and voting to keep them if satisfied or punish them if not.
Often based on economic performance during the incumbent's term.

Voting based on which candidate or party is perceived to be best for the future, not on past performance

Voting for the candidate whose ideological position aligns most closely with the voter's own.
Parties tend to move their positions closer to the ideological median to attract more voters while remaining distinct from the opposing party.

Research the SAVE Act for additional insights. Parties solve coordination problems, but the first past the post elections and electoral college means two parties dominate.

Money is a necessary but not sufficient condition to win elections.
Having more money does not guarantee victory.
Both Democratic and Republican parties have committees in the Senate and House dedicated to raising money for their candidates.

PACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money.
However, they are prohibited from coordinating directly with candidates or campaigns.

Parties serve as stable legislative and electoral alliances, addressing the coordination problem.
Parties consist of:
- Party in government (elected officials).
- Party in the electorate (voters).
- Party organization (e.g., DNC and RNC, responsible for running conventions).
Parties evolve over time, including realignments such as Southern Democrats becoming Republicans.
Ideology and party affiliation have become more closely linked.

Disturbance Theory and Pluralism: Interest groups (IGs) form naturally when there is a demand for them.
Neopluralism: Acknowledges the existence of many competing interests but recognizes that only a few exert significant influence.
Incentives for Joining:
- Collective outcomes.
- Material benefits.
- Solidarity.
- A sense of purpose in contributing to something larger (purposive incentives).
Dark Money and Independent Expenditures: Refer to the slides for more details on these topics.
Roles of Interest Groups:
- Provide expertise (inside strategy, lobbying).
- Shape public opinion.
- Mobilize support (outside strategy).
- Hold officials accountable.
Potential Issues:
- Favor narrow interests.
- Risk corruption through regulatory capture, where the regulating agency becomes dominated by the industry it is supposed to regulate.
Lobbying: Interest groups lobby Congress, executive agencies, and courts (through amicus briefs).
Iron Triangles: Relationships between Congress, bureaucracy, and interest groups.
Issue Networks: Include think tanks and media.
Revolving Door: Former officials become lobbyists, leveraging their connections to advance policy goals.

Individuals' opinions are generally stable but can be influenced by current events.
Zaller Model:
- Receive information.
- Accept information that aligns with existing ideology/values/attitudes.
- Reject conflicting information to avoid cognitive dissonance.
- Sample available information when making decisions.
Most people lack extensive political knowledge or fully formed opinions.
Elites can influence public opinion through framing and making issues more salient.
A random sample of 500-1000 individuals is standard for polling.
Polls are aggregated to improve accuracy, but the margin of error means the true value lies within an interval.

15 billion political texts were sent in 2022.
Voter files are only approximately 67\% correct.
AI is used in focus groups for summarization.
The Trump campaign focused on individual, movable voters in battleground states early on.
Hypertargeting: Campaigns target individual voters with personalized messaging.
Individual-level cognitive processing is valuable in modern campaign research.

Polls aren't necessarily wrong; expectations may be inaccurate.
Trump surged in the final days of 2024, demonstrating that a lead is not guaranteed to be maintained.
Campaigns identify and target voters who are open to their messaging but do not typically vote.
The link between government and the governed has strengthened due to technology, such as the ability to email representatives.
Campaigns advocate for spending increases.
The rapid pace of politics complicates polling.
AI-generated ads or photos can spread disinformation, potentially led by foreign actors.