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Changing Attitudes Towards Immigration
Abstract

  • The British political landscape on immigration significantly shifted pre- and post-Brexit.

  • Pre-Brexit, public consistently favored lower immigration, but politicians accepted higher levels, causing electoral issues.

  • Brexit brought fundamental changes in public opinion and electoral competition over immigration.

Introduction

Recurring Cycle in Immigration Politics

  • British public skepticism towards immigration has been persistent, driven by demands for stricter controls.

  • Governments often respond to anti-immigration mobilization only when electoral threats escalate.

Shift in Electoral and Public Sentiment Post-Brexit

  • Post-Brexit, public mood is less hostile; Conservative Party is more vulnerable to anti-immigration sentiments, while Labour faces reduced pressure.

  • Despite this, Conservative governments maintained liberal approaches, leading to record immigration and renewed anti-immigration mobilization.

Historical Context: Immigration Pre-Brexit

Public Opinion and Historical Data

  • British voters consistently opposed immigration (80% in 1950s-80s, two-thirds pre-Brexit).

Government Responses and Trends

  • Governments balanced control with labor shortages and international commitments (e.g., British Nationality Act 1948).

  • Parties like UKIP capitalized on public discontent, leading to immigration being a critical issue in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Immigration Politics After Brexit

Key Changes Since Brexit

  1. Public Opinion Shift

    • Substantial positive shift in attitudes; immigration concern dropped from 45% (2016) to 10% (2020-2022).

  2. Policy Autonomy

    • Brexit theoretically increased government control, yet a liberal approach led to increased immigration.

  3. Electoral Dynamics

    • Conservatives became vulnerable to anti-immigration movements; Labour benefited from a pro-immigration coalition.

  4. Mobilization of Immigrant Skeptics

    • Record immigration levels triggered responses from skeptics.

The Conservative Party's 'Stop the Boats' Campaign

  • The campaign failed to resonate with moderate voters leading to disillusionment.

  • This exposed a transformed post-Brexit landscape, boosting Labour's appeal and radical right parties.

Implications for Future Elections

Labour's Position and Strategy

  • Labour's voter base is more pro-immigration, requiring a balanced narrative to avoid alienating skeptics.

Future Political Landscape

  • Ongoing demographic changes suggest future pro-immigration sentiments and evolving political discussions.