Public Opinion Notes

Significance of Public Opinion

  • Vital link between public opinion, the will of the people, and public policy. Public opinion serves as a crucial mechanism for translating the desires and preferences of the populace into tangible government actions.

  • The only legitimate government comes from the people. Governments derive their power and authority from the consent of the governed, underscoring the importance of citizen participation and representation.

  • A government exists and sustains itself by the consent of the people, which encapsulates the idea of a republic in the form of a democracy. The principle of popular sovereignty ensures that the government remains accountable to the people and responsive to their needs and demands.

  • Political scientists are interested in what people are thinking because it forms the basis of government policy and law. Understanding public opinion is essential for policymakers to make informed decisions and craft effective legislation that reflects the values and priorities of society.

  • James Madison: "Public opinion sets bounds to every government and is the real sovereign in every free government." This quote emphasizes the profound influence of public opinion in shaping the direction and scope of government action.

  • Public opinion influences every aspect of life: reputation, how one makes money, what government ought to do, what sort of policy should come out, determining the taste of art or pop culture. Public sentiment permeates various facets of society, impacting individual choices, economic trends, government policies, and cultural norms.

  • Privacy becomes more important because we are more thrown into the public eye. As individuals become increasingly interconnected and visible through digital platforms and media channels, the protection of personal privacy becomes paramount.

  • Individual opinion, public opinion, public interest, and individual right sometimes coincide but also clash. Navigating the complex interplay between individual freedoms, collective welfare, and societal values requires careful consideration and compromise.

Madisonian Model and Extended Republic

  • James Madison conceived the idea of an extended republic. The concept of an extended republic, proposed by James Madison, aimed to address the challenges of governing a large and diverse nation.

  • The definition of republic during the times of the framers in the eighteenth and nineteenth century: Any form of government that involves representatives. During the formative years of the United States, the term "republic" referred to any system of government that relied on elected representatives to make decisions on behalf of the people.

  • Conventional wisdom: republic had to be small, made up of people sharing a common history, culture, and values. Traditional political thought held that republics could only succeed in small, homogenous societies where citizens shared similar backgrounds and interests.

  • America was a wide, diverse, spread-out country with different religious traditions and cultures. The United States, however, presented a unique challenge due to its vast geographic expanse, diverse population, and varied cultural and religious traditions.

  • Madison proposed creating an extended republic, which was a new idea at the time. To overcome these challenges, Madison advocated for the creation of an extended republic, a novel concept that sought to harness the benefits of diversity and competition.

  • Pluralism: allow various interests to compete openly in the political process. Pluralism, a key feature of the extended republic, encourages the participation of diverse interest groups in the political process, fostering a marketplace of ideas and perspectives.

  • This system prevents any one interest from dominating the political system. By allowing various interests to compete and check one another, the extended republic prevents the concentration of power in any single group or faction.

  • In a free society, individuals pursue their self-interest, while others pursue common or collective interests. A healthy balance between individual self-interest and the pursuit of the common good is essential for the functioning of a free society.

  • Intense competition prevents a concentration of power into one interest and promotes diversity and liberty for all. Robust competition among various interests ensures that no single entity can dominate the political landscape, thereby safeguarding individual liberties and promoting diversity of thought and expression.

  • Visual representation of the extended republic: Interest groups (schools, transportation, industries, marketing forces, farmers, merchants, small business owners, big business, big corporations, banking interest, Wall Street) compete openly to protect their self-interest. Interest groups representing various sectors of society engage in open competition to advance their respective agendas and priorities.

  • When one dominant interest (e.g., big corporation, big business, Wall Street) increases its power and poses a threat to all other smaller interests, the smaller interests will unite against that one dominant interest. In instances where a dominant interest threatens to undermine the interests of smaller groups, these groups may unite to counterbalance the influence of the dominant force.

  • This creates the common good and the public interest. Through the process of competition and coalition-building, the extended republic fosters the emergence of policies and outcomes that serve the broader public interest.

  • The system is not designed to be efficient but to guarantee liberty for all and prevent concentration of power. The primary goal of the extended republic is not efficiency but rather the preservation of individual liberties and the prevention of tyranny through the diffusion of power.

  • Agreements happen through concession, compromise after compromise, and uniting of interests. Compromise and consensus-building are essential components of the extended republic, requiring stakeholders to negotiate and find common ground to achieve policy objectives.

  • Even when the public agrees on what the federal government ought to do, there is fierce competition of various different countering interests who are trying to protect their own interests going on. Even in situations where there is broad public consensus on policy goals, competing interests may still vie for influence, shaping the implementation and outcomes of government action.

  • After a long legislative battle, the resulting policy or law may be a mutated, mangled thing beyond recognition due to the legislative process. The legislative process, characterized by negotiation, amendment, and compromise, may result in policies that differ significantly from their original form.

  • If pluralism is found to be inefficient and frustrating, there is an alternative model where all power is concentrated into one institution or one person. In contrast to pluralism, some political systems concentrate power in a single institution or individual, potentially leading to greater efficiency but also posing risks to individual liberties and democratic accountability.

  • Examples: Russia, China, North Korea.- Russia is more democratic because people are allowed to vote.

    • China changed its constitution to allow Xi Jinping to rule for life.

    • North Korea: Kim Jong-un has all the power.

  • The constant fight and the nasty sordid business of politicking are the proof of liberty. The ongoing struggle and contention that characterize political discourse and decision-making serve as evidence of a vibrant and free society.

Political Socialization

  • Political socialization: process in which an individual acquires his or her political attitude, views, and knowledge. Political socialization refers to the lifelong process through which individuals develop their political beliefs, values, and orientations.

  • Combination of political values and political knowledge. Political socialization encompasses the acquisition of political knowledge, as well as the internalization of political values and beliefs.

Influences

  • Parents/Family:-

    • The factor that exercises the heaviest influence on an individual in forming their opinion. The family environment exerts a profound influence on an individual's political development, shaping their initial attitudes, values, and beliefs.

    • If the political scientist has a conversation with your parents, they will have a 70% predictive power in guessing how one might behave politically and what one might believe. Parental political attitudes and behaviors can provide valuable insights into an individual's likely political orientations and affiliations.

    • If parents are apolitical, the children are very likely to behave like that too. Children raised in apolitical households may be less likely to develop strong political interests or affiliations.

    • If parents are conservative or liberal, they will try to instill that value and worldview. Parents often attempt to transmit their political values and worldviews to their children, influencing their political socialization.

  • Social Groups-

    • Voluntary social groups: job, church organization, any type of organization that you belong to out of your own free will. Voluntary social groups, such as professional organizations or religious congregations, can shape individuals' political attitudes through shared experiences and values.

    • Involuntary groups: race, gender, ethnicity, generation, year you're born, age group, geographical location. Involuntary social groups, such as racial or ethnic groups, can influence political socialization through shared identities and experiences of discrimination or marginalization.

  • Socioeconomic Status-

    • Level of education, which has an influence on the income level that individuals are going to achieve later in life. Socioeconomic status, including level of education and income, can shape political attitudes and behaviors by influencing individuals' access to resources and opportunities.

    • If one examines the individual socioeconomic status, that gives away a lot to the political scientist and gives them some predictive power as in which direction or how one might behave politically here. Socioeconomic factors can provide valuable clues to political scientists seeking to understand and predict individual political behavior.

Voter Turnout and Socioeconomic Status in Last Presidential Election

  • Presidential election produces the most participation among the voters. Presidential elections tend to generate the highest levels of voter turnout compared to other types of elections.

  • In February, only 51% of the eligible voters voted. Voter turnout rates in non-presidential elections are often significantly lower than in presidential elections.

  • Presidential election:-

    • 2004: 56%

    • 2008: 61%

    • 2012: 58%

    • 2016: 57%

    • Last election: 66%

  • There were more people that disliked Donald Trump than liked him. Disapproval of a particular candidate can serve as a motivating factor for voter turnout.

  • Gender breakdown: women are voting more than men. Women tend to participate in elections at higher rates than men, reflecting evolving gender dynamics in political engagement.

  • Education level:-

    • College education plays a decisive role. Higher levels of education are strongly correlated with increased voter turnout and political participation.

    • College education, junior college education, and degree holders made up 81% of the voters. Individuals with college degrees or higher educational attainment constitute a significant portion of the voting population.

    • The gender breakdown of college degrees and master's degrees: more women than men are getting college education and master's degrees and advanced degrees now. Women are increasingly surpassing men in educational attainment, leading to shifts in political attitudes and engagement.

  • Income Level-

    • 35% of them made less than 50,000 a year. Income level is a significant predictor of voter turnout and political participation, with lower-income individuals often facing barriers to engagement.

    • Two third of the voters made more than 50,000 of the year. Higher-income individuals tend to participate in politics at higher rates, reflecting their greater access to resources and influence.

    • Higher education advanced degrees tend to have a higher income. Educational attainment is closely linked to income level, with individuals holding advanced degrees typically earning higher incomes.

    • Those who make 170, 50 millionaires or billionaires donate their money to political candidates to interest groups that support their interests. Wealthy individuals and organizations often wield significant political influence through campaign donations and lobbying efforts.

  • Socioeconomic Status and Voting-

    • More education leads to more income. Education is a key driver of economic opportunity and upward mobility, leading to increased income potential.

    • As one gets older, the income grows as well. Income tends to increase with age and experience, reflecting career progression and accumulation of wealth.

    • More likely to vote and participate in a political process. Individuals with higher socioeconomic status are more likely to participate in the political process, reflecting their greater access to resources and influence.

Measuring Public Opinion

  • Scientific polling uses statistics and mathematics to get to the bottom of what people are thinking. Scientific polling employs statistical methods to systematically measure and analyze public opinion on various issues.

  • Sample size: usually between 1,000 to 1,500. Polling samples typically consist of 1,000 to 1,500 respondents to ensure statistical accuracy and representativeness.

  • Selection bias. Selection bias occurs when the sample is not representative of the population, leading to skewed results.

  • 1936 presidential election: Alf Landon vs. FDR.-

    • Alf Landon relied on Literary Digest polling and their polling company and relied on a sample size of 2,400,000 people drawn from the phone book and car registration. In the 1936 presidential election, Alf Landon's campaign relied on polling data from the Literary Digest, which used a large sample drawn from telephone directories and car registration lists.

    • Franklin D. Roosevelt relied on the Gallipol.

    • Gallup Poll relied on a sample size of only 50,000 people across the nation. Franklin D. Roosevelt's campaign, in contrast, utilized data from the Gallup Poll, which employed a smaller but more representative sample of the national population.

    • Literary told Alf Landon that he would win the election by a landslide.

    • The gal poll told FDR that he was gonna win by a landslide here.

    • FDR won by a landslide.

    • Relying on a sample from the phone book and a car registration, the Literary Digest basically pulled a whole bunch of sample from the upper crust well off people who hated FDR. The Literary Digest's sample was biased towards affluent individuals who were more likely to oppose Franklin D. Roosevelt, leading to inaccurate predictions.

  • Accurate representation is more important than the size of the sample. The accuracy of polling results depends more on the representativeness of the sample than on its size.

  • Pay attention to the sampling error/margin of error. It is crucial to consider the margin of error when interpreting polling results, as it indicates the range within which the true population value is likely to fall.

  • An acceptable margin of error or sample of error is a plus minus three to 4\%. You can use 5\%. I don't personally like it. A margin of error of plus or minus 3 to 4 percentage points is generally considered acceptable for most polling purposes.

  • The candidate receiving 51\% data results with a sampling of three to 4\% could really mean an actual support between 48 to 54\%. A candidate receiving 51% support in a poll with a margin of error of 3 to 4 percentage points could realistically have support ranging from 48% to 54% in the overall population.

Survey Design

  • Interviewing people to get the thoughts and opinions of these individuals. Surveys involve interviewing individuals to gather their thoughts, opinions, and attitudes on various topics.

  • The way a question is constructed can have a huge impact on the answer/opinion. The wording and framing of survey questions can significantly influence the responses obtained, highlighting the importance of careful survey design.

Push Polling

  • Questions are not designed to retrieve accurate information but to elicit a certain kind of result or even create a false image of a candidate. Push polling involves asking questions designed to manipulate public opinion or spread negative information about a candidate, rather than to gather accurate data.

  • Create a certain false image or start a rumor of the candidate. Push polls may be used to create a false or misleading impression of a candidate's character or policy positions.

  • Confront people with a clipboard and get the individual to sign up for something or answer some polling questions right there. Push polling tactics may involve aggressive or deceptive techniques to pressure individuals into providing responses.

Conclusion

  • Polling datasets can be only as good as those who answer them.-

    • Whether the individuals are telling the truth of what they're really thinking and feeling. The accuracy of polling data depends on the honesty and sincerity of the respondents.

    • Whether they've thoughtfully thought about this issue, or do they actually making up their opinion as they go. Polling results may be affected by whether respondents have carefully considered the issues at hand or are providing superficial or off-the-cuff opinions.

  • Polling results are not absolutely conclusive. Polling data should be interpreted with caution, as it provides only a snapshot of public opinion at a particular moment in time.

  • Polling is a reliable indicator of a trend. While not definitive, polling data can provide valuable insights into broader trends and patterns in public opinion.

  • In campaign season, polling dataset is what all the pundits talk about. Polling data often dominates political discourse during campaign seasons, influencing media coverage and campaign strategy.

  • Even though polling dataset has its own issues, there's some structural problems. Polling data is subject to various limitations and biases, including sampling errors, response bias, and question wording effects.

  • There is no other way to really find what people are really thinking other than through the polling dataset here. What you and your family and the neighbors happen to think, god, that's just a small sliver of an opinion. Despite its limitations, polling remains one of the most effective methods for gauging public opinion on a large scale, providing insights that go beyond anecdotal evidence.