Mineral Resources and Population Dynamics

Mineral Resources

Population Factors

The lecture begins by mentioning mineral resources and then pivots to population factors.

Population Growth

  • On November 15th, 2022, the world population reached 8 billion people.

  • Population growth is described as a driving force behind consumption.

  • The growth rate peaked at over 2% due to reduced mortality but has declined to 0.86%.

  • This decline is attributed to social-demographic patterns, including rising marriage age, increased contraceptive use, urbanization, and economic globalization.

Population Growth Rate

  • Natural Growth Rate: Calculated based on births and deaths.

  • Overall Growth Rate: Includes immigration.

  • Example:

    • Natural growth rate = 0.6%, Overall growth rate = 0.9%

    • Natural growth rate = 0.3%, Overall growth rate = 0.9%

U.S. Population History

The lecture references a TIME special report, "America at 300 million", and presents a historical overview of the U.S. population:

  • 1790: 3.9 million

  • 1915: 100 million

  • 1967: 200 million

  • 2006: 300 million

  • Projected: 350 million, 400 million (with age distribution changes)

  • The U.S. is the third most populous country but has less than 5% of the world's population.

  • The largest segment of the foreign-born population in 1967 came from Italy, whereas currently, 53% come from Latin America, mostly from Mexico.

  • The only year in U.S. history that the population declined was 1918, due to a flu pandemic.

Population Pyramids

  • Population pyramids for the United States (2017) and Nigeria (2017) are compared, showing age and sex distribution.

  • Data includes population size and GDP per capita.

    • United States of America - 2017

      • Population: 326,474,013326,474,013

      • US GDP/PC: 70,248.6370,248.63

    • Nigeria - 2017

      • Population: 191,835,936191,835,936

      • Nigeria GDP/PC: 2,1842,184

China's Population

  • China's population in 2023: 1,425,671,3511,425,671,351

  • The population pyramid shows a rapidly aging population, influenced by the one-child policy.

China's Population Policies

  • Annual population growth rates in China are examined, showing the impact of policies like "Later, longer, fewer" and the one-child policy.

  • The one-child policy became constitutional.

  • Later, the two-child policy was introduced.

Fertility Rates

  • Fertility rates by country are compared (2017), including Singapore, South Korea, Japan, China, U.S., India, Philippines, and Niger.

  • Replacement level fertility is noted.

20th Century Fertility Decline

Factors Driving the 20th Century Fertility Decline:

  • Decrease in child mortality.

  • Economic development.

  • Access to and awareness of family planning.

  • Governmental efforts to lower birth rates.

Population Growth and Resource Consumption

The lecture poses questions about the connection between population growth, natural resource consumption, and resource exhaustion.

Malthusian Theory

  • Thomas Malthus: A classical economist who postulated that population's "geometric" growth would eventually outstrip the "arithmetic" (or linear) growth in the means of subsistence.

  • Malthusianism: The view that without 'moral restraint,' the population will increase at a greater rate than its means of subsistence.

  • Neo-Malthusianism: Highlights the incompatibility between sustainability and population growth, arguing that more people lead to greater environmental impact, and more wealthy people lead to even greater environmental impact.

Environmental Impact of Population Growth

The environmental impact of population growth is questioned.

Carrying Capacity

  • The ultimate question: How many people can the Earth support?

  • Considerations include:

    • Level of material consumption

    • Physical environments

    • Technology (present and future)

Energy Transition and Mineral Needs

The energy transition requires various minerals:

  • Copper (Cu): Wind turbines use between 400kg to 4 tonnes of copper per turbine.

  • Neodymium (Nd), Iron (Fe), Boron (B), Dysprosium (Dy): Used in permanent magnet generators in wind turbines.

  • Lead (Pb), Lithium (Li), Nickel (Ni), Sodium (Na): Used in battery energy storage.

  • Molybdenum (Mo), Zinc (Zn): Enhance the longevity and performance of high-tech steel used in wind turbine towers.

Copper Content in Vehicles

Copper content by vehicle type:

  • Internal Combustion Engine (ICE): 48 lbs

  • Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV): 88 lbs

  • Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV): 183 lbs

Material Footprint and Income

Graphs illustrate the relationship between HDI (Human Development Index), income, and material footprint per capita.

CO2 Emissions and Income

  • The richest 10% are responsible for almost half (49%) of total lifestyle consumption emissions.

  • The poorest 50% are responsible for only around 10% of total lifestyle consumption emissions.

Sustainable Development Goals

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals are listed.

Natural Resources

The lecture transitions to a discussion of natural resources.

Renewable Resources

  • Replenished on human timescales.

  • Examples: organic materials (lumber), wind, water, solar energy.

  • Important factor: Rate of consumption.

Nonrenewable Resources

  • Finite.

  • Most mineral and physical energy resources.

  • Dependence on the situation of the resource body (e.g., an aquifer).

  • Important considerations: Total supply and rate of depletion.

Energy Resources Timeline

A timeline illustrates the historical usage of various energy resources, including:

  • Traditional biomass

  • Coal

  • Oil

  • Natural gas

  • Nuclear

  • Hydropower

  • Wind

  • Solar

  • Modern biofuels

  • Other renewables

Soils

  • Only 10% of the Earth's surface area is suitable for cultivation.

  • 85% of agricultural land is affected by erosion, rising salt, soil compaction, and other factors.

  • This has already reduced global agricultural productivity by ~15% in the last 50 years.

  • Top soil loss:

    • Last 300 years: 300 million tons/year

    • Last 50 years: 760 million tons/year

Metal Resources

Abundant Metals

  • Constitute 0.1%+ of crust by weight.

  • Examples: Iron, aluminum, silicon, manganese, magnesium, and titanium.

  • Not uniformly distributed but form most common minerals and are plentiful.

  • Influence many geologic processes.

Scarce Metals

  • Constitute less than 0.1% of the Earth’s crust by weight.

  • Examples: Copper, lead, zinc, molybdenum, mercury, silver, and gold.

Non-Metallic Resources

  • Minerals used as chemicals (e.g., Halite - NaClNaCl, Borax - Na<em>2B</em>4O<em>7⋅10H</em>2ONa<em>2B</em>4O<em>7 \cdot 10H</em>2O).

  • Minerals used for fertilizers (e.g., Phosphates).

  • Industrial minerals (e.g., Asbestos minerals).

  • Construction minerals (e.g., Crushed stone, gravel, sand, raw materials for cement/concrete).

Economic Geology

  • Grade: The amount at which its economic to mine.

  • Tonnage: How much of a commodity at a given grade.

  • Considerations: Social, environmental, and political factors.

  • All these factors combine to define a mineral resource (aka a mine).

Mineral Resource Data

  • To determine the grade and tonnage of a mineral resource, data is needed from drilling.

  • The more drill core available, the higher the confidence.

Drilling

  • Drilling is very expensive (1000’s/ft1000’s /ft).

  • It's the only way to get a 3D view of mineral deposits.

Resource Classification

  • Reserves: Mineable now, lots of data available.

  • Resources: May or may not be mineable, low confidence.

Mineralisation Extent

  • Diagram illustrating the relationship between mineral resource and ore reserve.

Supply and Demand

  • Brief mention of supply and demand dynamics.

Lead Times

  • Global average, 2010-2019

  • Global average lead times from discovery to production, 2010-2019

  • Discovery, exploration to feasibility

  • Construction planning

  • Construction to production

  • Average observed lead time for selected minerals (from discovery to production)

  • Lithium (Australia) - 2.6 Years

  • Lithium (South America) - 1.8 Years

  • Nickel (Sulfide) - 15 Years

  • Nickel (Laterite) - 18 Years

  • Copper - 12.5 Years

Lithium Reserves

  • A known reserve is a deposit that is deemed to be economically and technologically feasible to extract.

  • Global lithium reserves from 2008-2020 are shown:

    • 2008: 4M tonnes

    • 2010: 13M tonnes

    • 2012: 13M tonnes

    • 2014: 14M tonnes

    • 2016: 14M tonnes

    • 2018: 16M tonnes

    • 2020: 17M tonnes

Lithium demand distribution by end use market

  • 2013

    • Ceramics, Glass and Glass-Ceramics - 4%

    • Greases - 1%

    • Metallurgical - 1%

    • Rechargeable batteries - 87%

    • Others - 2%

    • Medical - 4%

  • 2017

    • Air treatment

    • Lubricant greases

    • Ceramic and glass

    • Other uses

    • Batteries

  • 2022

    • 55

Minerals Needed Per Person

  • Every American born will need 3.07 MILLION POUNDS of minerals, metals, and fuels in their lifetime:

    • CEMENT - 60,662 lbs.

    • IRON ORE - 20,246 lbs.

    • SILVER - 3.2 lbs.

    • BAUXITE (ALUMINUM) - 1,452 lbs.

    • CLAYS - 11,154 lbs.

    • COAL - 235,074 lbs.

    • COPPER - 993 lbs.

    • GOLD - 1.18 Troy oz.

    • LEAD - 840 lbs.

    • LITHIUM - 1.5 lb.

    • PHOSPHATE ROCK - 12,148 lbs.

    • SALT - 29,796 lbs.

    • STONE, SAND & GRAVEL - 1.34M lbs.

    • ZINC - 458 lbs.

    • OTHER MINERALS, METALS & FUELS - 1.36M lbs.

Byproduct Elements and Host Metals

  • Figure 14 depicts the relationship between byproduct elements and host metals.

    • Examples: chalcopyrite (source of copper), tetrahedrite (source of silver), quartz (source of silicon), arsenopyrite (source of arsenic), tantalite (source of tantalum), wolframite (source of tungsten), spodumene and subsurface brines (sources of lithium), graphite, bastnaesite (source of rare-earth elements)

Uneven Distribution

  • Minerals and fossil fuels are unevenly distributed.

  • Examples: lithium, cobalt, rare earths

    • Example for graphite: China (80%), Mozambique (10%), Brazil (5%)

Rare Earths Usage

  • Rare Earth Elements usage by Weapons Platform are shown:

  • Selected Rare Earth Defense Applications

    • Application Nd, Pr, Sm, Dy,Tb Examples

    • F-35 - 920 lbs.

    • Arleigh Burke DDG-51 - 5,200 lbs.

    • SSN-774 Virginia-class Submarine - 9,200 lbs.

    • Tomahawk Cruise Missile -5,900 lbs.

Global Primary Metal Production

  • Global production of primary metals and ores is presented (Source: British Geological Survey 2019).

Factors Affecting Metal Production

Global Primary Metal Production

  • Factors affecting metal production are shown:

    • Potential - tax reform/trade relations

    • North American free trade agreement

    • Labour environment disputes

    • Sanctions

    • Safety and environmental enforcement

    • Fiscal struggles with tax pressures

    • Regulatory enforcement

    • Auctioning of mining rights

    • 2018 presidential elections

    • Potential new regulatory regime-mining charter, environmental regulations

    • Social economic challenges in key producing regions

Global Platinum and Palladium Production (2021)

PALLADIUM

  • South Africa 80 Metric Tons

  • Russia 74 Metric Tons

  • Canada 17 Metric Tons

  • United States 14.1 Metric Tons

  • Zimbabwe 13 Metric Tons

  • Other countries 2.8 Metric Tons

PLATINUM

  • South Africa 130 Metric Tons

  • Russia 19 Metric Tons

  • Zimbabwe 15 Metric Tons

  • Canada 6 Metric Tons

  • United States 4.2 Metric Tons

  • Other countries 4.3 Metric Tons

Nevada Deposits

  • Location of Nevada Deposits (map)

Gold

  • Dense lustrous yellow.

  • Soft and malleable.

  • Good conductor of heat and electricity.

  • Commonly found in hydrothermal sulfide deposits (Veins and Disseminated).

Carlin Complex History

  • timeline of the Carlin Complex History:

    • Gold was discovered in 1946.

    • An open pit in 1965.

    • 1980 high-grade mineralization in north Carlin.

    • Additional deposits were identified by 1988.

Geology of Carlin Trend

  • Paleozoic (255-540 Ma) Sedimentary rocks.

  • Gold mineralization emplaced ~42 - 36 Ma ago.

  • Shallow formation.

  • Metamorphism

  • Faults, folds, and contacts between sedimentary and intrusive rock.

  • Various ore fluid models are needed, but meteoric waters play a critical factor.

  • Thrust faults and anticlines are important structural traps.

Carlin Trend Mine

  • Photo of the Carlin Trend mine.

Newmont Mining Corporation

  • 78% recycled H2OH_2O

  • Dual-fuel power plant

  • Conservation

  • Recycling

  • Reclaimed Land

Silver

  • Second most-used commodity.

  • Highest known electrical conductivity.

  • Ag2SAg_2S ore

  • Electrum.

  • Mostly from byproducts.

  • Commonly found in hydrothermal sulfide deposits.

  • Oxidized portions.

Hycroft Mine

  • Map of Hycroft Mine. Hycroft Mine is a gold and silver mine located in northwestern Nevada, United States. It is one of the largest silver mines in the world.

Hycroft Geology

  • Epithermal deposit.

  • Shallow (<300℃)

  • Circulated meteoric water

  • Faults control structures

  • Ag occurs as disseminated and vein- controlled

Copper

Mindat Mindat

  • Extremely ductile and is a good conductor of heat and electricity

  • Hydrothermal sulfide deposits

  • Oxidized zone

  • Commonly found within mafic rocks (Fe minerals) that have interacted with Cu-bearing solutions

Nevada Copper

  • Drill Hole Location Map (Golder, 2019)
    *Yerington
    *Porphyry

Geology of Pumpkin Hollow

  • Porphyry Model of Pumpkin Hollow
    Genetic Model for Copper

Environmental and Social Summary of Hollow

Pumpkin Hollow Environmental and Social Summary

  • No endangered or threatened animals or vegetation are impacted by the project

  • Reclaimed areas are graded, and stockpile soil is placed

  • Seeding is done in the winter to maximize success

  • Fencing, project speed limits, and reduced low-visibility roadways

  • Aquifer ages

    • Alluvial/Tertiary groundwater – apparent age of 11,400 years

    • Bedrock water- apparent age >30,000 years

  • <1% loss to evaporation

Lithium

  • Silvery to gray alkali metal

  • Lightest and least dense of all metals

  • High electrical conductivity

  • Spodumene- LiAlSi<em>2O</em>6LiAlSi<em>2O</em>6

  • Pegmatites

  • Brines

Brine Environment Characteristics

  • Arid climate

  • Closed basin containing salt lake

  • Igneous and/or geothermal activities

  • Tectonically driven subsidence

  • Lithium source

  • Sufficient time to concentrate brine

Geology of Silver Peak

  • Geology of Silver Peak chart
    *Silver Peak Operations Overview
    *Well Drilling
    *Drill planning based on model
    *Reverse circulation
    *Stainless steel construction
    *Screen interval based on aquifer property and Li concentration
    *Well Production
    *Continuous flowrate monitoring
    *Routine sampling
    *Pumping from ~60 wells at a given time depending on operational capability
    *Pond Concentration
    *Solar Evaporation
    *Sampling
    Liming

Lithium Capital of North America

The seven companies overview (map of area).

Rare Earth Elements

  • Magnetic properties1

  • Luminescent properties1

  • Electrical properties1

  • Bastnaesite- CeCO3(OH,F)CeCO_3(OH,F)

  • Alteration product from Tysonite

  • Contact metamorphic zones and pegmatites

Mountain Pass Geology

  • Bastnaesite was located in Mountain Pass in April 1949.

  • REE deposits occur in a belt 6 miles long and ½ mile wide.

  • Precambrian in age (~800-1,000 million years)

  • 60% carbonate minerals in veins.

  • 5-10% of rare-earth oxides up to 40%.

Gypsum

  • CaSO<em>4.2H</em>2OCaSO<em>4 .2H</em>2O

  • Evaporite

  • Ocean brines, saline lakes and salt pans, or cap rock covering salt domes

  • Disseminated in limestones and some shales

Gypsum in NV

Location of gypsum in Nevada with corresponding imagery from 1985-2023

Diatoms

  • Diatoms are single-celled organisms (algae) typically 50 to 150 microns1

  • 16,000 species are found in sediments or water

  • Diatomaceous earth is a substance composed of fossilized diatoms

Lane Belt

  • Dicalite map

DicaLite Vermiculite

*DicaPerl

Turquoise

  • CuAl<em>6(PO</em>4)<em>4(OH)</em>8⋅H2OCuAl<em>6(PO</em>4)<em>4(OH)</em>8\cdot H_2O

  • Waxy, Dull, and Earthy luster.

  • Secondary deposits in volcanic or sedimentary rocks from circulating water.

  • Arid environments.

Lone Mountain Turquoise

Location of turquoise imagery from 1999-2023

Turquoise Use

  • Different uses include: art and jewelry

Meta-Quartzite

  • Slightly metamorphosed sandstone
    *Cross-bedded
    *Offset seen within cross-bedding
    Example from Vegasrock.com

Geology of Las Vegas Rock

  • Jurassic ~200 Ma

  • 97-98% Silica (SiO2SiO_2)

  • Dunes formed along primordial seas

  • Exhibit cross-bedding from wind

  • Chemical weathering of iron oxides

  • Buried and experienced elevated pressure and temperature

  • Uplifted during the late Cretaceous (100 Ma) thrusting along long-angle faults.

Las Vegas Rock Map

Current Maps

Rainbow Quarries

  • Rainbow Quarries – 1930s
    *LVR Formed in 1991
    *Factory located in Jean, NV
    *781 gallons of water used in 2023, with 99.63% being recycled
    *Sediments collected from the water are sold as byproducts
    *Cradle to Cradle
    *Teacher Workshop

Sand and Gravel

  • Mainly quartz-rich sand or sandstone

  • 2023- 920 million tons of construction sand and gravel produced-$11 billion.

  • Canada (86%) and Vietnam (4%) account for the highest import sources (2019-2022).

  • 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

Blue Diamond and Jones Quarry

  • Imagery from 1977, 2002, 2023, and 2024 highlighting Blue Diamond and Jones Quarry

Conclusion

  • Lecture conclusion slide

Final Thoughts

  • We need more mining, not less.

  • Understanding mineral demands and geopolitical relationships to avoid supply chain disruptions.

  • Discuss how to reduce CO2CO_2 emissions and the role of mining.

  • An increase in education, research, and outreach.

  • Responsible mining is everyone’s responsibility.

Russia and Australia

Chart Overview of Mineral Resources.

Cobalt

*Scientific Properties
*Conducts heat
*Malleable
*Conducts electricity ☑Ductile
*☑Can be magnetized
*Corrosion-resistant
*Uses for Cobalt in the U.S.
MEDICAL
*Cobalt is a trace element in vitamin B12 (aka cobalamin) essential to nutrition in animals like cattle and sheep, as well as in the maturation of human red blood cells. Cobalt alloys are also used with titanium and stainless steel in orthopedic implants. Cobalt-60 synthetic radioactive form (Co-60) is used to treat some forms of cancer and sterilize medical supplies.
*☑
BATTERIES
*The top use for cobalt is in lithium-ion battery production. It provides stability to the cathodes of lithium-ion batteries used in hybrid cars and solar energy storage. Even green tech generates waste, and with fewer than 5% of lithium-ion batteries being recycled worldwide in 2019, we can all reduce e-waste by doing better at recycling the cobalt already mined.
INDUSTRY

    Cobalt is used in superalloys for turbine engine parts. It is also used in electroplating, which strengthens and reduces corrosion to other metals while giving them a brighter surface. Cobalt is used to make airbags and steel-belted radial tires for cars, cutting tools, and magnetic recording media, and it's a catalyst for petroleum and chemical processes. Gamma radiation from Co-60 is also used as an X-ray alternative for inspecting industrial materials and structures.

MAGNETS
Alnico alloy (aluminum,
nickel, and cobalt) is highly magnetic. This combination makes powerful magnets found in compasses, microphones, hearing aids, and wind turbine generators.

ART MATERIALS
Cobalt is used in drying agents for paints, varnishes, and inks. Cobalt salts are used to produce vivid shades of blue dyes and pigments in porcelain, glass, pottery, and tile.

Additional Slide

*Is there a need for cobalt?
*Overview of need

Final Review

  • End of the review.

Bowen's Reaction Series

  • Diagram depicting Bowen's Reaction Series, illustrating the order in which minerals crystallize from magma as it cools.

  • Includes both the discontinuous (olivine, pyroxene, amphibole, biotite) and continuous (plagioclase feldspar) series, as well as the last minerals to crystallize at low temperatures (potassium feldspar, muscovite, quartz).

Types of Faults

  • (a) Normal Fault:

    • Hanging wall moves down relative to the footwall.

  • (b) Dip-Slip Faults:

    • Reverse (steep dip): Hanging wall moves up.

    • Thrust (gentle dip): Hanging wall moves up.

  • (c) Strike-Slip Faults:

    • Left-lateral displacement: Movement to the left.

    • Right-lateral displacement: Movement to the right.

  • Oblique-Slip Faults:

    • Normal plus right-lateral displacement.

    • Reverse plus left-lateral displacement.