Putin’s War in Ukraine
Initial Invasion and Resistance
Reports of gunfire and battles on the streets of Europe, specifically in Ukraine.
Ukrainians are demonstrating courage against Russian aggression.
Questions arise regarding Vladimir Putin's mental state; some suggest he may be perceived as "mad."
Paul Kenyon reports on one of the first battles near Hostomel Airport, located 20 kilometers north of Kyiv. The airport is a key strategic point for a potential assault on the capital.
Russian soldiers take over the airport.
Ukrainians mount a counterattack, briefly retaking the airport before it falls back into Russian hands.
Life Under Siege in Kyiv
Kyiv, a city of approximately 3 million people, faces the start of a war.
Sirens prompt residents to seek shelter in underground locations.
Assia and Vazia, civil servants, seek refuge in an underground car park, which becomes their primary living space.
They express uncertainty about Russia's objectives and the potential for a Third World War.
They hope for a return to normalcy but acknowledge the grim reality.
The perspective is that Putin initiated the war and must bear the consequences.
Build-Up to the Invasion
Signs of a potential invasion emerged in November, with satellite images revealing a build-up of Russian troops and tanks along Ukraine's borders.
Putin initially claimed these were military exercises with no intention to invade.
Differing opinions existed regarding Putin's potential actions, ranging from de-escalation to a full-scale invasion.
Russian Perspective
Sergei Markov, a former Russian MP and Kremlin insider, suggests that Putin made the decision to use the Russian army to "liberate" Ukraine around October of the previous year.
Markov suggests that Putin's statements about not invading were a form of "military disinformation" rather than lies.
Putin's motivations are attributed to concerns about Russia's security, particularly NATO expansion.
Putin views Ukraine's potential NATO membership as a threat, aiming to create a more secure buffer for Russia.
Historical context is invoked, highlighting Russia's historical perception of threats from the West.
Diplomatic Efforts and Failed Deterrence
Western politicians attempted to avert war through diplomacy in Moscow.
Putin declared two pro-Russian areas of Eastern Ukraine as independent states.
Initial Western economic sanctions were considered weak and ineffective, potentially emboldening Putin.
The Invasion Begins
Russian forces crossed Ukraine's borders from multiple directions.
Reports and images of the invasion started circulating, including a tank crushing a car and missile strikes on Kyiv.
The Ukrainian government remained in the city, operating from a secret location.
A Deputy Prime Minister reported the deployment of massive numbers of Russian soldiers and tanks, with shelling directly impacting the capital.
Civilians suffered casualties, and families began to flee westward.
Impact on Cities
Ksenia, a business manager in Odessa, reported being awakened by blasts, causing fear and despair.
Residents feared escalating danger and struggled to sleep.
Historical Context: 2014 Events
The 2014 demonstrations in Maidan Square overthrew the pro-Russian government, leading to Putin's fear of Ukraine moving closer to Europe.
Mystery snipers appeared during the protests, with blame directed towards Russia.
Putin seized Crimea through a stealth operation involving unmarked vehicles and soldiers without insignia.
Pro-Moscow separatists seized Russian-speaking parts of Eastern Ukraine, leading to ongoing fighting that resulted in approximately 14,000 deaths over eight years.
The international response, including sanctions, was deemed minor and ineffective.
Putin's Broader Ambitions
Putin's desire to expand Russia further was signaled, potentially aiming to re-establish a Russian empire.
Putin's state of mind is questioned, with some suggesting he may be "mad" or driven by ideology rather than rational calculation.
His behavior is perceived as increasingly paranoid, fueled by a sense of humiliation and grievance since the Soviet collapse.
Putin deployed over 150,000 troops as part of his plan to restore Russia's former glory.
He aimed to "demilitarize" Ukraine and remove what he described as its "neo-Nazi government", despite Ukraine having a Jewish president and prime minister.
The "neo-Nazi" claim is viewed as KGB disinformation to demonize the enemy.
Ukrainian Resistance
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, called for resistance.
26-year-old MP Svatoslav Yurush organized volunteers to fight, providing weapons to those willing to defend Ukraine.
Civilians, including a lawyer with no prior military experience, signed up to fight out of a sense of duty.
Ordinary Ukrainians, border guards, and soldiers showed strong resistance.
Ukrainians are well-equipped, organized, and motivated to defend their homeland.
International Response and Sanctions
Countries worldwide announced deeper economic sanctions targeting oligarchs, banks, and Russia’s international trade.
Sanctioned state banks are integral to the Russian economy.
A run on Russian banks is observed as people attempt to withdraw their deposits.
Sanctions may decrease support for Putin among his inner circle, but can also increase support overall given Russian history.
Humanitarian Crisis
The invasion caused over half a million Ukrainians to flee the country.
Senya experienced a nine-hour traffic jam while trying to reach the Moldovan border and eventually found safety in Romania.
Assia and Vazia left Kyiv amid deteriorating conditions, fearing bombings.
Conditions in Kyiv
Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv, leading to fears of spies and saboteurs.
A citywide curfew was imposed, with residents ordered to turn off all lights.
Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city, experienced intense street battles.
Nuclear Threat
Putin warned of serious repercussions if Western troops entered Ukraine.
He put Russia's nuclear arsenal on alert, raising concerns about the potential use of devastating weapons.
Assessment of the Situation
The invasion is viewed as a miscalculation by Putin, who likely anticipated a swift victory.
The invasion triggered international outrage.
Dissent is growing within Russia.
Ukrainians are determined to resist the Russian invaders.
Peace talks have begun, but a swift resolution is not expected.
they will hold the line until the Russians withdraw, no matter how long it takes.