Putin’s War in Ukraine

Initial Invasion and Resistance

  • Reports of gunfire and battles on the streets of Europe, specifically in Ukraine.

  • Ukrainians are demonstrating courage against Russian aggression.

  • Questions arise regarding Vladimir Putin's mental state; some suggest he may be perceived as "mad."

  • Paul Kenyon reports on one of the first battles near Hostomel Airport, located 20 kilometers north of Kyiv. The airport is a key strategic point for a potential assault on the capital.

  • Russian soldiers take over the airport.

  • Ukrainians mount a counterattack, briefly retaking the airport before it falls back into Russian hands.

Life Under Siege in Kyiv

  • Kyiv, a city of approximately 3 million people, faces the start of a war.

  • Sirens prompt residents to seek shelter in underground locations.

  • Assia and Vazia, civil servants, seek refuge in an underground car park, which becomes their primary living space.

  • They express uncertainty about Russia's objectives and the potential for a Third World War.

  • They hope for a return to normalcy but acknowledge the grim reality.

  • The perspective is that Putin initiated the war and must bear the consequences.

Build-Up to the Invasion

  • Signs of a potential invasion emerged in November, with satellite images revealing a build-up of Russian troops and tanks along Ukraine's borders.

  • Putin initially claimed these were military exercises with no intention to invade.

  • Differing opinions existed regarding Putin's potential actions, ranging from de-escalation to a full-scale invasion.

Russian Perspective

  • Sergei Markov, a former Russian MP and Kremlin insider, suggests that Putin made the decision to use the Russian army to "liberate" Ukraine around October of the previous year.

  • Markov suggests that Putin's statements about not invading were a form of "military disinformation" rather than lies.

  • Putin's motivations are attributed to concerns about Russia's security, particularly NATO expansion.

  • Putin views Ukraine's potential NATO membership as a threat, aiming to create a more secure buffer for Russia.

  • Historical context is invoked, highlighting Russia's historical perception of threats from the West.

Diplomatic Efforts and Failed Deterrence

  • Western politicians attempted to avert war through diplomacy in Moscow.

  • Putin declared two pro-Russian areas of Eastern Ukraine as independent states.

  • Initial Western economic sanctions were considered weak and ineffective, potentially emboldening Putin.

The Invasion Begins

  • Russian forces crossed Ukraine's borders from multiple directions.

  • Reports and images of the invasion started circulating, including a tank crushing a car and missile strikes on Kyiv.

  • The Ukrainian government remained in the city, operating from a secret location.

  • A Deputy Prime Minister reported the deployment of massive numbers of Russian soldiers and tanks, with shelling directly impacting the capital.

  • Civilians suffered casualties, and families began to flee westward.

Impact on Cities

  • Ksenia, a business manager in Odessa, reported being awakened by blasts, causing fear and despair.

  • Residents feared escalating danger and struggled to sleep.

Historical Context: 2014 Events

  • The 2014 demonstrations in Maidan Square overthrew the pro-Russian government, leading to Putin's fear of Ukraine moving closer to Europe.

  • Mystery snipers appeared during the protests, with blame directed towards Russia.

  • Putin seized Crimea through a stealth operation involving unmarked vehicles and soldiers without insignia.

  • Pro-Moscow separatists seized Russian-speaking parts of Eastern Ukraine, leading to ongoing fighting that resulted in approximately 14,000 deaths over eight years.

  • The international response, including sanctions, was deemed minor and ineffective.

Putin's Broader Ambitions

  • Putin's desire to expand Russia further was signaled, potentially aiming to re-establish a Russian empire.

  • Putin's state of mind is questioned, with some suggesting he may be "mad" or driven by ideology rather than rational calculation.

  • His behavior is perceived as increasingly paranoid, fueled by a sense of humiliation and grievance since the Soviet collapse.

  • Putin deployed over 150,000 troops as part of his plan to restore Russia's former glory.

  • He aimed to "demilitarize" Ukraine and remove what he described as its "neo-Nazi government", despite Ukraine having a Jewish president and prime minister.

  • The "neo-Nazi" claim is viewed as KGB disinformation to demonize the enemy.

Ukrainian Resistance

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, called for resistance.

  • 26-year-old MP Svatoslav Yurush organized volunteers to fight, providing weapons to those willing to defend Ukraine.

  • Civilians, including a lawyer with no prior military experience, signed up to fight out of a sense of duty.

  • Ordinary Ukrainians, border guards, and soldiers showed strong resistance.

  • Ukrainians are well-equipped, organized, and motivated to defend their homeland.

International Response and Sanctions

  • Countries worldwide announced deeper economic sanctions targeting oligarchs, banks, and Russia’s international trade.

  • Sanctioned state banks are integral to the Russian economy.

  • A run on Russian banks is observed as people attempt to withdraw their deposits.

  • Sanctions may decrease support for Putin among his inner circle, but can also increase support overall given Russian history.

Humanitarian Crisis

  • The invasion caused over half a million Ukrainians to flee the country.

  • Senya experienced a nine-hour traffic jam while trying to reach the Moldovan border and eventually found safety in Romania.

  • Assia and Vazia left Kyiv amid deteriorating conditions, fearing bombings.

Conditions in Kyiv

  • Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv, leading to fears of spies and saboteurs.

  • A citywide curfew was imposed, with residents ordered to turn off all lights.

  • Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city, experienced intense street battles.

Nuclear Threat

  • Putin warned of serious repercussions if Western troops entered Ukraine.

  • He put Russia's nuclear arsenal on alert, raising concerns about the potential use of devastating weapons.

Assessment of the Situation

  • The invasion is viewed as a miscalculation by Putin, who likely anticipated a swift victory.

  • The invasion triggered international outrage.

  • Dissent is growing within Russia.

  • Ukrainians are determined to resist the Russian invaders.

  • Peace talks have begun, but a swift resolution is not expected.

  • they will hold the line until the Russians withdraw, no matter how long it takes.