Climate Change and Species Distribution Notes

Barro Colorado Island (BCI)

  • Barro Colorado Island in Panama is a key site for tropical ecology research.
  • The island was isolated due to rising lake waters during the construction of the Panama Canal.
  • Synchronous flowering is often observed in one or more species within the forest canopy at BCI.

Tropical Droughts

  • The Amazon experienced a major drought in 2005.
  • Rainfall deficit was a key indicator of severely affected areas.
  • Primary productivity increased in many areas despite the drought, which is an unexpected result that is still being researched.

Moisture Recycling in Amazon

  • Trees in the Amazon basin transpire moisture into the atmosphere, contributing to cloud formation.
  • Prevailing winds carry this moisture west, where it precipitates back into the forest.
  • This transpiration and precipitation cycle helps maintain forest cover during climate change.
  • The cycle continues until air masses are blocked by the Andes.

Jaguar (Panthera onca) Records

  • Confirmed physical evidence of jaguars in Arizona and New Mexico was recorded from 1900–2006 (n = 64).
  • B = Predator bounty hunting discontinued.
  • S = State protection in Arizona.
  • E = Endangered Species Act established.
  • F = Jaguar Federally Listed as an Endangered Species.
  • Records are incidental sightings and do not include findings from this study. (Records courtesy of Arizona Game and Fish Department and Brown and López Gonzáles [2001].)

Increase in Cloud Base in Cloud Forests

  • Cloud forests are experiencing an increase in the cloud base due to climate change.
  • Lawton, R.O. , Nair , U.S. , Pielke , S. , Welch , R.M. , 2001 . Climatic impact of tropical lowland deforestation on nearby montane cloud forests . Science 294 , 584 – 587 .
  • Still , C.J. , Foster , P.N. , Schneider , S.H. , 1999 . Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests . Nature (London) 398 , 608 – 610 .

Monteverde Population Fluctuations

  • Twenty species of frogs and toads disappeared from the Monteverde cloud forest in Costa Rica after a long run of dry days.
  • The golden toad (Bufo periglenes) was locally endemic, and its disappearance may represent the first extinction linked to climate change.
  • Subsequent long dry spells have caused other frog population crashes since 1987.
  • Increasing frequency of dry spells in cloud forests is linked to climate change through the lifting cloud base effect.
  • Dry periods appear to favor pathogenic growth of the fungus that is the ultimate cause of death in affected frogs.

Global Diversity of Amphibian Species

  • Distribution of Threatened Amphibian Species
  • Total No. Amphibians.

Indonesia: Regional Drought Conditions

  • Drought Severity
  • Mid (SPI-1 to -0.5)
  • Moderate (SPI-1.5 to -1)
  • Severe (SPI-2 to -1.5)
  • Extreme (SP1-2.5 to -2)
  • Exceptional (SPI-3.1 to -2.5)

Flying dogs (Pteropus sp.) vs. Heat waves

  • Grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus)

Reaction of vegetation zones

  • Diagram showing the shift in vegetation zones with altitude and latitude due to climate change.
  • Current vegetation zones are compared to future vegetation zones.

Expanding Malaria Zone

  • Malaria is currently rare in the highlands of Zimbabwe.
  • Malaria parasites mature more rapidly under projected temperature increases.
  • This allows the disease to persist in formerly inhospitable areas.
  • The projected spread of malaria into the Zimbabwe highlands by 2050 is shown.
  • Orange and red colors denote suitable conditions for malaria transmission, and blue-green colors areas with poor conditions for transmission.
  • From Patz, J. A. and Olson, S. H. 2006, National Academy of Sciences U.S.A.

Bird malaria

  • Projected changes in 17°17° (yellow) and 13°C13°C (white) isotherms that limit the distribution of avian malaria under current and 2°C2°C warming conditions.
  • Changes are shown for Hanawi Reserve (blue boundary) on the island of Maui (a), Hakalau Refuge (blue boundary) on Hawaii (b), and the Alakai swamp region on the island of Kauai (c).
  • From Benning, T.L., et al. 2002, National Academy of Sciences U.S.A..

Hawaii - subalpine zone

  • Argyroxiphium sandwicense ssp. macrocephalum.

Sonoran pronghorn antelope (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis)

  • Species

  • Food: grasses, herbs, cacti

  • Water: dew, puddles, food

  • Shelter: tall grasses, shade trees

  • Habitat: grasslands, rangelands, alluvial valleys

  • The Sonoran pronghorn is smaller and lighter colored than its North American relatives.

  • An adult Sonoran pronghorn stands about 3123 \frac{1}{2} feet tall at the shoulder, weighs 90-125 pounds, and has a 270 degree field of vision for up to four miles.

  • When startled, they often show their white tail and rump patch before fleeing.

  • Sonoran pronghorn are superbly adapted to their desert environment, being able to tolerate high temperatures and go without water for extended periods.

  • The Sonoran pronghorn was federally listed as an endangered species in 1967.

  • Following a severe drought, only twenty-one Sonoran pronghorn remained alive in the United States in 2002.

  • The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in cooperation with the Arizona Game and Fish Department and many other partners in the U.S. and Mexico, initiated a captive breeding program to increase Sonoran pronghorn numbers and ensure their survival.

Loss of Tropical Glaciers

  • Photos of Puncak Jaya glacier in Papua New Guinea from 1936 (a) and 1972 (b).

  • Tropical vegetation is moving into areas formerly covered by the ice of this glacier.

  • The Qori Kalis glacier is the most significant ice outlet from the Quelccaya ice cap on the Cordillera Vilcanota in southeast Peru.

  • Its extent in 1978 (a) was much larger than in 2004 (b).

  • In only 5 years, this glacier has retreated more than half a kilometer.

  • New ecosystems are developing in the freshwater ponds left behind by the glacier.

  • Photos courtesy Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University.

Salmons and other anadromous fishes

  • Sockeye Salmon Range

Snow leopard (Panthera uncia)

Desertification in northern Tibet

  • Major Rivers Sourced in Tibet

Asynchronous sleep of marmots

  • Graph of Number of individuals vs year
  • Marmota flaviventris

American pika (Ochotona princeps)

  • Probability of pika extirpation in 21st century

Bark beetle in N America

  • Pinus albicaulis - High altitudes
  • Pinus flexilis - High altitudes
  • Pinus contorta

Higher fire activity

  • Western US Forest Wildfires and Spring-Summer Temperature
  • Timing of Spring Snowmelt
  • Fire Season Length

Phenology

  • Phenology is defined as the study of the timing of recurring biological events, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species (Leith 1974).
  • From: Global Seagrass Research Methods, 2001 Beaubien and Freedland (2000)

Winter moth

  • Shifting altitudinal distribution of outbreak zones of winter moth Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic birch forest: a response to recent climate warming?
  • Hagen et al., 2007, Ecography

Gatunki inwazyjne a zmiany klimatu

  • Invasive Species

Number of frost days

  • Invasion of exotic plant species is correlated with reduced drought days in Switzerland. Removal of climatic stress may remove important constraints on the spread of these species.

Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

  • Current known distribution: October 2015

Invasive fishes

  • Lionfish (Pterois volitans)