The Crisis of African Democracy: Coups Are a Symptom—Not the Cause—of Political Dysfunction

Introduction

The article addresses the increasing occurrence of military coups in Africa.
From August 2020 to November 2023, seven African leaders were ousted by their militaries.
The coups are concentrated in a belt of instability stretching from Niger to Sudan, but the risk of broader contagion is real.
Coups reverse economic and political progress in fragile states.
Understanding the dynamics that underpin these coups is crucial for African policymakers and analysts.

Drivers of Coups

Each coup is driven by local problems, such as:
- Government failures to control Islamist militancy (e.g., Mali, Burkina Faso).
- President's moves to cling to power (e.g., Guinea).
- Rigged elections (e.g., Gabon).
- Power consolidation after a president's death (e.g., Chad).
- Internal power struggles (e.g., Niger).
Discontent with governing authorities is a common factor across Africa.
Economic woes are the primary driver of popular frustration.
Afrobarometer survey (2022) found that citizens of almost every African state believed their country was headed in the wrong direction.

Popular Support for Coups

In the past, coups were viewed negatively, but now, particularly in the Sahel, they seem to enjoy popular support.
UN Development Program research (2022) found that eight in ten Malians backed their country’s military junta.
This shift suggests disillusionment with democracy or a belief that authoritarian rule is the only solution.

International Response

Multinational institutions are cracking down on junta-led countries.
The African Union (AU) has suspended the membership of countries that undergo coups.
West African nations have imposed harsh sanctions, and European donors are cutting support.
This zero-tolerance approach misunderstands the roots of Africa’s new unrest and risks further immiserating the continent.
Surveys show that African citizens still have faith in democracy but are desperate to rid themselves of regimes that fail to deliver on its promises.

Underlying Issues

Populations face climate-change-driven catastrophes, sovereign-debt crises, and soaring inflation.
Leaders in a quarter of African countries have modified or discarded constitutional term limits to consolidate their power.
A military takeover may look like a welcome break in a dispiriting status quo.

Recommendations

Foreign governments and institutions may need to work, temporarily, with some coup leaders to encourage them down a more democratic path.
Western actors must shift from security assistance and military action to backing governance reforms and boosting economic support.

Global Shocks

Africa has been badly hit by recent global shocks:
- Climate change has brought hunger, flooding, and deadly storms.
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced grain exports and elevated food prices.
- China’s loans to Africa have fallen tremendously, from a 28 billion peak in 2016 to just under 1 billion in 2022.
- The rise in U.S. interest rates has triggered the flight of capital from key African economies.
Inflation on the continent stood at 16 percent in the summer of 2023, far higher than the global average of 7 percent. In Nigeria and Ethiopia, inflation has topped 25 percent.

Historical Context

During the Cold War, both Moscow and Washington made Africa a proxy battleground.
When the Cold War ended, much of Africa was plunged into political and economic uncertainty.
Many African countries sought loans from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF, requiring painful market reforms.
After 2000, some reforms began to yield dividends.
Between 2000 and 2010, African countries’ real GDP growth surged to 5.0 percent, compared to 2.5 percent throughout the 1990s.
The 2002 founding of the AU symbolized the continent’s surge of confidence.
The AU committed itself to “non-indifference” to human rights abuses and emphasized the need to forbid unconstitutional changes of government.

Hidden Vulnerabilities

Many African countries continued to suffer a major deficit of democratic governance.
Some countries made serious strides toward democratic consolidation, but others cultivated performative democratization.
Incumbents often tried to tilt the playing field in their favor, restricting opposition parties, suppressing civil society, and curtailing freedom of the press.
Multiple countries ended up under “electoral authoritarianism,” where presidents fix elections and change the constitution.
Many governments did not widely share the dividends of economic growth.

Erosion of Optimism

The 2008 global economic crisis sent commodity prices crashing.
In 2011, NATO-led troops invaded Libya, releasing streams of sophisticated weaponry into the Sahel, empowering nonstate armed groups, and igniting violence.
The failure of French-led military interventions further inflamed resentment at the perceived arrogance of governments in Paris.

Transitions Gone Awry

In 2018, Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia and announced sweeping political reforms, but in 2021, the Ethiopian government became embroiled in a civil war.
The generals who replaced Bashir in Sudan sent their country into its own civil war.
The emergence of new powers pursuing interests in Africa gives African leaders more choices of partners but also feeds new conflicts.

Examples of Democratic Consolidation

A number of countries in East Africa and southern Africa have escaped the specter of coups.
In Kenya, the Supreme Court overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s declaration of victory and ordered a new election in 2017.
In 2019, the Malawian Supreme Court annulled President Peter Mutharika’s electoral win.
In Zambia in 2021, an opposition leader, Hakainde Hichilema, won the presidency, and the incumbent accepted the outcome.
South Africa remains a strong democracy with robust institutions.

Correlation Between Governance and Stability

African countries that have invested in more responsive governance and built credible institutions have fared better.
An annual survey by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation found in 2022 that countries with the highest ratings for “overall governance” also tend to be the most peaceful.

African Citizens' Views on Coups

African citizens’ general warm reception of recent coups does not signal a loss of faith in democracy but fatigue with failed elites.
A UN Development Program study found that 55 percent of people in countries ruled by juntas still preferred democracy.
An Open Society Foundation survey found particularly strong support for democracy among African respondents.

Consequences of Coups

Coups do not work, and putschists wind up making things worse.
In 2022, 43 percent of deaths caused by jihadi violence worldwide occurred in the Sahel, up from 1 percent in 2007.
A 2020 University of Munich study found that a successful coup slows a country’s GDP growth by two or three percentage points.

Alternative Medicine

A hard-line stance only limits the capacity of foreign governments and multilateral institutions to influence new leaders and deepens insecurity.
A more astute response would aim to improve the situation in the countries where soldiers have seized power.
The United States’ response to the coup in Niger offers a loose template.
Other leaders and policymakers should be more open to working with coup leaders, encouraging them to take steps toward hybridizing their government.
The AU must have sustained engagements with new military authorities to encourage a transition back to civilian rule.
The United States and Norway have maintained substantial humanitarian aid to Sahelian countries hit by coups.
ECOWAS must rethink the damaging sanctions it has imposed on its military-run member states, at a minimum exempting essential commodities.

Prevention

Much broader concerted action is needed to prevent economic pain from evolving into political unrest.
A significant problem is the debt crisis now afflicting the developing world.
Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 65 percent, 10 percent higher than the IMF’s maximum recommended limit.
In 2017, the World Bank considered 15 sub-Saharan African countries to be in debt distress or at high risk of it; that number has since climbed to 23. In late 2020, Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt. Wealthier countries must follow through on pledges to recycle their allotment of Special Drawing Rights.

Pivot from Security-Based Approach

A final key to improving African security and livelihoods is to pivot away from a security-based approach.
These (military) operations must be accompanied, however, by strong political efforts to engage with groups that might be willing to renounce violence in exchange for incentives such as invitations to join their country’s formal security services or local governance structures.
Addressing the deeper socioeconomic conditions that militants exploit to recruit discontented youth may help authorities turn the tide against jihadists.
The example of Côte d’Ivoire is worth emulating: over the past decade, the country has implemented a comprehensive economic development program that includes apprenticeships and credit facilities for young people in its northern region.
Decision-makers in Western capitals may be reluctant to try to sell taxpayers on the idea of sending more money abroad, But helping Africa in its season of strife may be easier to frame than many Western leaders imagine: for developed countries, investing in Africa is an act of enlightened self-interest.

Conclusion

Encouraging good governance is much more onerous than launching showy military interventions, but it is nevertheless necessary.
Those who wish to promote peace and security in Africa have no other option than to do it.