HSB4U: Challenge and Change in Society - Unit 3: Social Patterns and Trends - Activity 1: Demographics

What Are Demographics?

  • Demographics study the structure, growth, and changes in human populations.
    • Examples of demographics:
      • Age: Different age groups such as children, teenagers, adults, and seniors.
      • Gender: Male, female, non-binary, and other gender identities.
      • Ethnicity: Various ethnic groups like Asian, African, Hispanic, Caucasian, etc.
      • Income Level: Low, middle, and high-income brackets.
      • Education Level: High school diploma, bachelor’s degree, master’s degree, etc.
      • Occupation: Different job sectors such as healthcare, education, technology, etc.
      • Marital Status: Single, married, divorced, widowed.
      • Religion: Various religious affiliations like Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, etc.
      • Geographic Location: Urban, suburban, and rural areas.
      • Household Size: Number of people living in a household.

Why Are Demographics Important?

  • Governments and organizations use demographics to plan for the future.
    • They help predict needs for social programs and services.
    • Understanding demographics can guide decisions about education, healthcare, and employment.
  • Since social change is centered around human populations, demographics can help us better understand social change
  • Examples of groups using demographics to plan and predict:
    • Resurrection CSS/WCDSB
    • Ministry of Health
    • Ministry of Education
    • Grand River Hospital
    • Construction companies
    • Marketing firms
    • Transportation planners

Future Predictions for Canada & Global Demographics

  • Predicted global demographic trends:
    • The global population is projected to grow by two billion people, increasing from 7.7 billion now to 9.7 billion by 2050, and is expected to peak at nearly 11 billion by the end of the century as fertility rates continue to decline.
    • Urbanization is on the rise, with more people living in cities than ever before.
    • By 2050, the number of people aged 65 and older will surpass the number of children under age 5.
    • Half of the global population growth from now until 2050 will come from just nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States.
    • The population in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double, while Europe’s population is likely to decrease.
    • Although the percentage of international migrants has remained around 3\% of the global population over the past two decades, their numbers have more than doubled since 2000.
    • The number of people forced to flee their homes has increased significantly due to ongoing conflicts and is likely to rise further due to climate change and environmental degradation.
    • Most refugees and migrants move to countries in the global South.

Key Demographic Terms

  • Population pyramids:
    • Graphical Representation: Graphical illustrations that display the age and sex composition of a population.
    • Shape and Interpretation: Shape of a population pyramid can reveal important information about the population’s growth trends, such as whether it is expanding, stable, or decreasing.
    • Indicators of Social Trends: Reflects social trends such as birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy.
    • Dependency Ratios: Helps us calculate dependency ratios, which indicate the proportion of dependents (young and old) to the working-age population.
    • Demographic Transition: Shows different stages of the demographic transitions, showing shifts from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country develops
  • Pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive categories
  • Life Expectancy
    • Life expectancy is the average number of years a person is expected to live.
    • It can indicate the overall health of a population.
    • Factors that can influence life expectancy in different countries:
      1. Genetics
      2. Healthcare Access
      3. Lifestyle Choices
      4. Socioeconomic Status
      5. Environmental Factors
      6. Social Connections: ex. community networks and support
      7. Public Health Policies: ex vaccines, health education
      8. Mental Health
  • Child mortality rate
    • The death rate of children under five years old
    • 2022 - the global under-five mortality rate dropped to a historic low of 4.9 million deaths, a 51\% decline since 2000
    • Children in sub-Saharan Africa are 18 times more likely to die before their fifth birthday compared to those in developed countries
  • Birth rate
    • The number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.
    • 2024 - the global birth rate is approximately 17.3 births per 1,000 people
    • Birth rate has been gradually declining, reflecting changes in societal norms, economic conditions, and access to family planning
  • High Child Mortality Rates:
    • Often indicate poor health infrastructure, limited access to medical care, and socio-economic challenges. (ex. malnutrition, infectious diseases, and inadequate maternal health services)
  • Low Birth Rates:
    • Can signal advanced economic development, higher education levels, and greater access to contraception. (better healthcare systems and higher standards of living)

Social Challenges/Changes and Population

  • WAR
    • Impact of War on Population
      1. War Participation:
        • Typically involves able-bodied citizens aged 20-50.
        • Majority of participants are often males.
      2. High Death Toll:
        • Results in the loss of a significant portion of the population in this age group.
      3. Post-War Population Boom:
        • Example: After WWII, there was a significant increase in births known as the Baby Boom.
        • This occurred as soldiers returned home, found economic stability, and started families.
    • Case Study - The Baby Boom in Canada
      • Background:
        • Post-World War II (1946-1965)
        • Soldiers returning home, economic stability, and societal optimism
      • Increased Birth Rates:
        • Birth Rate rose from 24.3 per 1,000 in 1945 to 27.2 per 1,000 in 1946. (9.0 in 2022)
        • Sustained high birth rates until 1959, peaking at 28.5 per 1,000.
      • Marriage Trends:
        • Higher proportion of adults married
        • Median age for first marriage dropped (23.2 years in 1940 to 21.1 years in 1965).
      • Economic and Social Factors:
        • Improved economic conditions post-WWII.
        • Larger families became the norm.
  • DISEASE
    • Famine/Disease and Population
      • Population Growth, Urbanisation, and Infectious Disease Rates:
        • Population growth can increase the infectious rate because increased human interaction leads to higher transmission rates.
        • More people living in closer proximity (urbanisation) increases the risk of disease spread
        • Increased demand for resources can lead to food shortages and malnutrition.
        • Higher population density can increase the spread of infectious diseases.
    • Disease Spread and Globalisation
      • How can globalisation impact the spread of famine/disease?
        • Overland Trade and War (Ancient Times):
          • Trade routes and wars spread diseases in the Mediterranean.
        • Maritime Transportation (Age of Exploration):
          • Ships brought diseases to new lands.
          • Ex. smallpox
        • Air Travel (Modern Times):
          • Planes quickly spread diseases worldwide.
          • Ex. Covid 19
  • GOVERNMENT POLICY
    • Government Policy and Population
      • Government policies are decisions and actions taken by a government to influence a country’s social, economic, and political environment.
      • Types of Government Policies:
        • Population Control Policies: e.g., One Child Policy in China.
        • Immigration Policies: e.g., Open or restrictive immigration laws.
        • Healthcare Policies: e.g., Access to reproductive health services.
        • Economic Policies: e.g., Tax incentives for families.
      • Potential Impacts on Demographics:
        • Population Growth or Decline: Influence by encourage or discourage birth rates.
        • Age Structure: Influence the proportion of young vs. elderly population.
        • Migration Patterns: Affect the movement of people into (immigrate) or out (emigrate) of a country.
        • Gender Balance: Impact the ratio of males to females.
    • Case Study - The One Child Policy in China
      • Background:
        • In 1979, China introduced the One Child Policy aimed at controlling population growth.
      • Policy Details:
        • Urban couples limited to one child.
        • Penalties for non-compliance included fines and sterilization.
        • 2013: Policy relaxed; families could apply for a second child.
        • 2016: Policy officially changed to allow two children per couple (Two Child Policy)
        • 2021: Policy is lifted
      • Impact on Population:
        • Significant demographic shift over 35 years.
          • By 2016, there were approximately 33.59 million more men than women
          • Long-term social and economic repercussions.
        • People are still not having as many children as before
        • Decline in population and aging population are become a problem
  • EMIGRATION
    • Key Concepts:
      • Emigration is the exit of population from a country - usually due to famine, war, or economic crisis.
      • Emigration often starts with those of working age. Leads to a depleted workforce.
    • Brain Drain:
      • Loss of skilled and educated individuals.
      • Negative impact on the country’s development and economy.
    • Economic Impact:
      • Reduced labor force.
      • Potential decline in economic productivity.
    • Social Impact:
      • Changes in population structure.
      • Potential increase in dependency ratio (more dependents per working-age person).
    • Case Study - Mexico
      • High Emigration Rates:
        • 11.9 million Mexicans live abroad.
        • Over 11\% of Mexico’s native population.
        • 97\% of emigrants reside in the United States.
      • Reasons for Emigration:
        • Push Factors: Violence, crime, and drug issues, malnutrition and poor education, economic challenges.
        • Pull Factors: Labor demand in the US, better quality of life.
      • Impact on Mexico:
        • Workforce Depletion: Loss of working-age population.
        • Brain drain: skilled and educated individuals leaving.
        • Economic: Reduced labor force impacting economic productivity.
        • Social: Changes in population structure and dependency ratios.
    • Recent Emigration Trends:
      • Since 2012, more Mexicans returning to Mexico than leaving.
      • Improved economic situation in Mexico.
      • Decreased work opportunities in the US.
      • Stricter immigration enforcement in the US.
  • IMMIGRATION
    • Reasons for Immigration:
      • Refugee Status: Fleeing conflict or persecution
      • Economic Opportunities: Seeking better quality of life and job prospects.
    • Impact on Population:
      • Population Growth: Helps counteract low birth rates.
      • Workforce Enhancement: Fills labor shortages, especially in unskilled jobs.
      • Diversity: Enriches cultural and social fabric of the country.
    • Challenges:
      • Support Needs: Government support for housing, healthcare, and integration.
      • Economic Integration: Ensuring immigrants can work in their trained professions.
  • Women’s Roles
    • Traditionally, women left the workplace after marriage or childbirth, becoming stay-at-home wives and mothers.
    • Trends in Women’s Roles in 2024:
      • Increase in women staying in the workforce.
      • Higher levels of education among women.
    • Impacts on Society:
      • Families with dual incomes can afford more consumer goods.
      • Age of first childbirth has increased.
      • Average number of children per family has decreased.
      • Reflects a shift towards career-oriented lifestyles for women.
      • Economic and social dynamics within families have evolved.
    • Key Trends:
      • Average Family Size Worldwide:
        • In the late 1970s, mothers had over three children on average.
        • By 2014, this number stabilized at about 2.4 children.
        • In Canada the most recent statistics state that the average now is 1.26 children per women in 2023
        • The proportion of mothers with four or more children dropped from 40\% in 1976 to 14\% in 2014.
      • Educational Impact:
        • Higher education levels correlate with smaller family sizes.
        • Mothers with a bachelor’s degree or higher average 2.2 children, while those without a high school diploma average 2.9 children.
      • Racial and Ethnic Differences:
        • Hispanic and Black mothers tend to have larger families compared to White and Asian mothers.
        • Hispanic mothers average 2.6 children, while Asian mothers average 2.21.