GOVT 2306 Public Opinion Study Notes

Ethnicity and Voting Patterns:
- African Americans: Approximately $90\%$ vote Democrat.
- Hispanics: Approximately $60\%$ to $65\%$ vote Democrat.
- Asian Americans: Approximately $60\%$ to $70\%$ vote Democrat.
- Whites: Approximately $54\%$ to $58\%$ vote Republican.
Poll Reliability:
- Margin of Error: A generally acceptable margin of error for a reliable poll is $\pm 4\%$ . Higher margins significantly decrease the poll's reliability.

Primary Influencers:
- Family: The strongest predictor of political alignment is parental influence, though exceptions occur via rebellion.
- Mass Media: Generally leans liberal, with notable exceptions like Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.
- Education: Universities and professors are noted for a liberal bias, influencing college-aged students.
Significant Historic/Political Events:
- 9/11: Impacted national sentiment and foreign policy views.
- Iraq War: Led to disillusionment among conservative bases.
- Affordable Care Act (Obamacare): Impacted opinions due to the rise in premiums.

Reliable Poll Characteristics:
- Neutral wording (avoiding leading or emotional questions).
- Proper sequencing to prevent response bias.
- Accurate demographic representation (equal opportunity for all groups).
Contact Methods:
- Phone: Most reliable due to high accessibility.
- Internet: Often suffers from demographic biases.
- Face-to-face: Highly dependent on location/timing.
- Mailing: Least efficient due to cost and speed.
Poll Types:
1. Tracking Polls: Measure continuous changes in support over time.
2. Exit Polls: Conducted on Election Day to analyze voter behavior and demographics.
3. Deliberative Polls: Surveying participants after they have been educated/discussed specific issues.
Historical Failure: The $1948$ Dewey vs. Truman election serves as the primary example of polling failure.