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Deloitte 2026
Holiday Forecast
Holiday Sales Outlook
• U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to reach 1.70-1.71 trillion
(Nov. 2026-Jan. 2027).
• Represents 4.0%-4.8% growth over the prior holiday season.
• Continues the steady growth trend following 4.1% growth in 2025.
E-Commerce Remains the Growth Engine
• Holiday e-commerce sales are expected to reach 316.1-318.9
billion.
• Online sales are forecast to grow 7.5%-8.4% year-over-year.
• Digital shopping continues to gain share as consumers use online
tools to research, compare, and purchase products.
Consumer Spending Drivers
• Deloitte expects Disposable Personal Income (DPI) to grow 4.5%-
5.2% during the holiday season.
• Higher disposable income is viewed as a strong predictor of both
retail and e-commerce spending.
• Consumers continue to use digital tools extensively throughout the
shopping journey.
Value-Seeking Consumer Behavior
• Shoppers remain focused on making the holidays special while
carefully managing budgets.
• Consumers are increasingly:
• Comparing retailers and brands
• Seeking promotions and discounts
• Switching brands for better value
• Shopping strategically to maximize purchasing power
20 Great Examples Of Self-Service
Customer Experience Strategy
• What makes a self-service experience feel empowering vs. frustrating?
• How do brands balance automation with human empathy?
Technology & Design
• Which technologies (AI, voice, mobile, kiosks) are most scalable across industries?
• What role does UX design play in successful self-service adoption?
Brand Identity & Trust
• How can self-service reinforce brand values and storytelling?
Measurement & ROI
• What KPIs should brands track to evaluate self-service success?
• How can self-service improve employee experience and operational efficiency?
Innovation & Experimentation
• Which example from the article would you adapt for a different industry?
• How might self-service evolve in education, healthcare, or government?
Modern Customers Crave Control, Speed, and Simplicity
• Self-service is now a CX differentiator, not just a cost-saving tool.
• Personalization and real-time data are critical to success (e.g., Walmart’s kiosks, Fabletics’ price
checkers).
• Blended models (bot + human handoff) enhance trust and flexibility (e.g., Urban Stems, Optimum).
• Voice and mobile interfaces are expanding access (e.g., WYNN’s Alexa integration, Hilton’s app).
• Community-driven support builds brand loyalty (e.g., Squarespace, Google).
Inside Ralph Lauren’s Big Comeback - And How it Won Over Gen Z
Ralph Lauren reversed brand dilution by pulling back from heavy discounting, reducing its
presence in lower-tier wholesale channels, and re-establishing pricing discipline to rebuild brand
equity.
The company doubled down on its own stores, digital platforms, and AI, shifting toward a
more controlled, data-driven retail ecosystem that improved margins and customer experience.
A major strategic focus was winning over Gen Z, using elevated storytelling, tighter product
curation, and digital engagement to reposition Ralph Lauren as aspirational rather than
Mass-discount.
Choosing the right retail location
• Target Market Match: Align the location with your ideal customer base by analyzing demographics,
shopping habits, and spending patterns in the area. Leave no stone unturned in researching whether
an area is a good fit for your target audience.
• Competitive Landscape: Conduct a thorough competitor analysis to identify gaps in the market and
areas that aren’t oversaturated. Look at factors like the number of similar businesses, their proximity,
and how well-established they are.
• Accessibility Galore: Look for easy access via major roads, parking availability, public transit
options, and pedestrian-friendly surroundings. Accessibility can make or break the decision to visit.
• Viable Infrastructure: Don’t overlook the basics like reliable utilities, high-speed internet, and
proper zoning for retail operations. Frequent blackouts can lead to operationing nightmares.
• Safety First: Check out crime statistics and security measures to ensure a safe environment for
customers and employees. Safety should be a top priority for any retail space.
• Zoning and Regulations: Know local zoning regulations and restrictions. Ensure the chosen location
complies with all necessary permits and licenses required for operating a retail business.
Gymshark
UK-based Gymshark grew from a garage startup in
2012 to a £646M global brand without relying on
traditional mass-market advertising
• Focused on a specific fitness subculture rather than
the mass athletic market
• Pioneered influencer marketing before most major
brands
• Operated primarily as a direct-to-consumer e-
commerce brand
• Built a community around gym culture, transformation,
and fitness identit
Kith Rewards
Rewards programs drive transactions; loyalty programs build relationships. Kith focuses on
emotional connection and exclusivity rather than discounts.
• Instant value at sign-up. Existing customers receive credit for past purchases, while new
members get access to exclusive, members-only product capsules.
• Reward engagement, not just spending. Members earn points for actions like app usage,
early-access purchases, drawings, and in-store shopping.
• Never-expiring points encourage long-term relationships. The program avoids penalizing
customers for inactivity, reinforcing brand affinity.
• Turn loyalty into status. Higher tiers unlock exclusive products, events, and launch access,
making membership a visible badge of belonging.
• Test before scaling. Kith spent years experimenting with VIP offers to identify the rewards
customers truly valued before launching the full program.
Supreme
Founded 1994 by James Jebbia
• Scarcity and weekly drops built demand
• Collaborations elevated cultural relevance
• Became iconic streetwear brand
Revenue Expansion
• 2017: Estimated revenue roughly 100M-150M
• 2018: Estimated revenue roughly $200M+
• 2019: Estimated revenue approximately $500M
• 2020 (Acquisition Year): Revenue estimated around 500M-550M
Why Investors Were Excited
• High margins
• Direct-to-consumer model
• Strong global growth potential
• Exceptional brand equity among Gen Z and Millennials
Supreme looked like a luxury-growth asset disguised as a streetwear
company.
• VF acquired Supreme for $2.1B in 2020
• Expected significant global growth
• FY2024 revenue about $538M
• Sold in 2024 for $1.5B to EssilorLuxottica
Why Supreme
Lost Momentum
• Scarcity eroded
• Streetwear became mainstream
• Growth pressure conflicted with authenticity
• Strategic fit with VF was limited
Rapha:
The Rise and Fall
• Founded 2004 as premium cycling brand
• Built cult following through RCC and clubhouses
• Acquired by Walton-backed RZC in 2017
• Nine consecutive years of losses followed
Owned premium cycling position
• Growth diluted exclusivity
• Pandemic demand masked problems
• Brand promise erosion led to loyalty loss
Rapha vs Supreme
• Both built communities and cultural relevance
• Both faced acquisition-driven growth pressure
• Both struggled to scale authenticity
• Valuations fell when growth expectations fell
Your Supply Chain Must Match Your Brand Strategy
Supply chains should support the brand promise, not simply maximize volume
Supreme
• Supply chain success depended on intentional scarcity
• Being "out of stock" was often a feature, not a problem
• Operational efficiency could actually destroy value if it made products too available
Rapha
• Supply chain supported premium quality and community positioning
• Faster growth increased complexity, inventories, and operating costs
Your Supply Chain Must Match Your Brand Strategy
Supply chains should support the brand promise, not simply maximize volume
Key Takeaways
• Inventory should reinforce brand strategy
• Forecast carefully during booms
• Complexity grows faster than revenue
• Efficiency is not always effectiveness
How New Revenue Streams Are Transforming Traditional Retail
New Revenue Streams Drive Growth and Experience - Retailers integrating platforms like retail
media, data monetization, and B2B services are not just diversifying income, they’re enhancing the consumer experience and building sustainable competitive advantage. These strategies create a virtuous cycle that improves loyalty, personalization, and operational efficiency.
One-Third of Top Retailers’ TSR Came from New Streams - BCG found that top-quartile retailers outperformed their peers in five-year total shareholder return (TSR), with about one-third of that
outperformance directly attributed to new revenue streams like marketplaces and media
monetization.
Start Small, Iterate Fast - To activate the revenue flywheel, BCG recommends retailers start with
small bets, test minimum viable products, and iterate quickly. Success depends on experimentation, cross-functional leadership, and strategic partnerships -not waiting for scale or perfection.
Based on BCG’s article How New Revenue Streams Are Transforming Traditional Retail, retailers that best
embody the recommended strategies are those aggressively building data-driven business platforms
and activating the full revenue flywheel: marketplace expansion, retail media, data monetization, and
B2B services.
These are four current examples:
• Walmart
• Target
• Kroger
• Best Buy
Walmart – The benchmark leader, Walmart is executing across all four
flywheel components with scale and speed.
A related BCG article highlights Walmart as the most comprehensive example
of this transformation:
• Third-party marketplace: Expanded assortment and traffic via external sellers
• Retail media: Walmart Connect monetizes ad inventory and customer data
• Data monetization: Offers insights dashboards & anonymized segments to partners
• B2B services: Logistics and software solutions for other businesses
• Same-day delivery: Spark system reaches 95% of U.S. households
Target – Strong in retail media & loyalty, Target excels in monetizing traffic and
expanding its offer through loyalty and media. While not named directly in the
BCG article, Target is widely recognized for:
• Roundel, its retail media network
• Deep loyalty integration via Target Circle
• Strategic use of first-party data for personalization
Kroger – Data monetization & fulfillment, Kroger is a strong example of
monetizing traffic and reinvesting in core operations. Kroger’s 84.51°
analytics arm leads in:
• Customer data monetization
• Personalized promotions and insights for CPGs (Consumer Packaged Goods)
• Investment in automated fulfillment and digital grocery
• For those who are curious, The name 84.51° represents the longitude of the
company’s headquarters in Cincinnati, Ohio (specifically, 84.51 degrees west)
Best Buy – B2B services and marketplace, Best Buy shows how legacy
retailers can diversify into services and digital platforms.
Best Buy has:
• Expanded its marketplace for third-party sellers
• Developed tech support services (Geek Squad) as B2B offerings
• Invested in omnichannel logistics and customer experience