PIC/NIC Analysis®: Performer's Eye View Study Notes

Conceptual Foundations
  • PIC/NIC Analysis® = “Positive/Negative, Immediate/Future, Certain/Uncertain” classification of consequences attached to a pinpointed behavior.
    • Complements the ABC (Antecedent–Behavior–Consequence) model studied earlier.
    • Formal but not scientific; a structured thinking tool.
  • Goal: Understand why the performer finds the behavior sensible at the moment of action.
    • Quote: “Everyone's behavior makes sense to him or her at the time.”
    • Requires empathetic stance – “Walk a mile in their shoes.”
Why We Need It
  • Typical diagnoses (laziness, lack of will-power, low intelligence, hostility) focus on internal traits → unchangeable & unhelpful.
  • PIC/NIC redirects attention to external variables the organization can influence.
Key Terminology
  • P/N = Positive or Negative to the performer.
  • I/F = Immediate (during behavior) or Future (any time after behavior has stopped).
  • C/U = Certain (high-probability) or Uncertain (low-probability).
  • Eight consequence types (ranked later):
    • PIC, NIC, PIU, PFC, NFC, NIU, PFU, NFU.
Step-by-Step Procedure (General)
  1. Pinpoint the target behavior (even a loose label works initially).
  2. List all antecedents that commonly precede it.
  3. List all consequences the performer experiences.
  4. For each consequence, mark P/N, I/F, C/U from the performer’s viewpoint.
  5. Look for patterns (clusters of PICs vs. NFUs, etc.).
  6. Compare with the consequence map for alternative/desirable behaviors.
Smoking Case Study
  • Behavior Pinpointed: Smoking.

Antecedents Identified

  • Offered a cigarette, finishing a meal, drinking alcohol, seeing ads, taking breaks, observing others smoke, time since last cigarette, habitual routine, nicotine craving.
  • Eliminating all antecedents is impossible (you would have to stop eating, drinking, socializing, etc.).

Consequences Identified

  • Positive: relaxation, good taste, satisfying, work break, warming hands (if cold).
  • Negative: yellow teeth, standing in cold, cancer, emphysema, heart disease, death.
  • Performer-centric rating reveals more negatives than positives yet the behavior persists.

Temporal & Probability Analysis

  • Positives are Immediate & Certain (PIC).
  • Negatives are Future & Uncertain (NFU).

Numerical Insight

  • Rough success rate of antecedent-focused quitting: 55 quitters out of 100100 (~5%5\%) succeed; 9595 (~95%95\%) relapse.

Attempting to Quit ("Not Smoking")

  • Antecedents: friend’s death, personal heart attack, family complaints, etc.
  • Immediate Consequences of abstinence: irritability, intense cravings (NIC).
  • Future Consequences: longer life, lower cancer risk, better taste of food (PFU or PFC depending on certainty perception).
  • Pattern flips: Desired state has NICs & PFUs, making persistence difficult.
Universal Pattern Discovered
  • Undesired behavior = cluster of PICS despite numerous NFUs.
  • Desired/required behavior = often saddled with NICs & PFUs.
  • Examples beyond smoking:
    • Safety vs. shortcuts: Safety takes more time (NIC); shortcut gives speed (PIC).
    • Programmers: Writing documentation (NIC/PFU) vs. coding (PIC).
Power Hierarchy of Consequences

Ranked from strongest to weakest influence (Figure 10.7):
PIC > NIC > PIU > PFC > NFC > NIU > PFU > NFU

  • Rule of thumb: “A small, immediate, certain consequence outweighs a huge, delayed, uncertain one.”
Workplace Implications
  • Organizations typically rely on PFUs & NFUs:
    • PFU: annual bonus, contests, promotions, salary increases.
    • NFU: reprimands, firing, demotion, loss of perks.
  • Such strategies sit near the bottom of the power hierarchy → weak leverage for real-time behavior change.
  • Effective change engineering = convert desired behavior into PICs (or at least PIUs) and make undesired behavior NICs or worse.
Practical Guidelines for Applying PIC/NIC Analysis®
  1. Primary purpose = explain & predict current behavior, not moralize.
  2. Do not force one-to-one links between specific antecedents and specific consequences; many-to-many relationships are typical.
  3. “Immediate” truly means while the behavior is happening; even a few minutes later counts as “Future.”
  4. “Certain” ≠ 100%100\% probability; use “high-probability in typical conditions.”
  5. Maintain a single focal behavior per analysis; switch behaviors → start a new chart.
  6. Positive vs. Negative is defined by the performer’s reinforcement history, not by observer opinion.
Ethical & Philosophical Notes
  • Tool demands empathy & objectivity – analyst must suspend personal value judgments.
  • Highlights human susceptibility to short-term gratification over long-term welfare – a philosophical lens on self-control, addiction, and risk.
Core Takeaways
  • PIC/NIC Analysis® offers a quick, structured lens for real-world performance issues.
  • In 4040+ years of application, every workplace problem examined has displayed the same PIC-vs-NFU skew.
  • Designing change: increase PICs for desirable behaviors, insert NICs for undesirable ones, and avoid over-reliance on PFUs/NFUs.
  • Although simple, the model guides deeper, data-driven interventions discussed in later chapters (see Chapters 1616 & 1919 on reinforcement schedules).