Unit 10- Iran

  • politics in action

    • Regional “superpower”

      • the Middle East is geopolitically seen as a region (Levant, Arabian Peninsula, Northern African countries with Muslim populations)

      • Iran, along with Saudi Arabia, are the two key superpowers in the region because of their wealth, military, and political influence

        • Israel can compete militarily, but not politically or economically

    • Mixture of theocracy, autocracy, and democracy

      • Even though we look at Iran being a dictatorship, there are democratic elements (i.e. once the candidates are approved by the Guardian Council, the elections are pretty fair)

    • Balancing religion with effective governance

    • Role of the Supreme Leader 

      • Iran has a president who is the head of government

      • the Supreme Leader is the head of state but has a sizable impact on policy where he approves policy (political factor)

    • Reform vs. conservative politicians

      • no political parties (factions!)

    • Iran’s nuclear program

    • Iran’s conflict with Saudi Arabia (proxy war)

    • Supporting Terrorism (largest state sponsor of terror)

      • Hezbollah

      • Hamas

  • geographic setting

    • Mass inhospitable territory - approx. 75% of Iranian population (65m) live in urban areas totalling 30% of the land

      • large parts of Iran are desert, arid, mountainous land (inhospitable)

    • The climate varies by region (coastal vs. inland, elevation, etc.)

      • coastal city of Abadan

    • Importance of the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea

      • Persian Gulf: large oil fields

        • Strait of Hormuz: the only way any oil can go to from the Persian Gulf countries (Iran attacks)

      • Caspian Sea: military importance to west/central Asian countries (stansj

  • natural resources

    • 4th largest oil reserves in the world (2nd in ME), 9th largest producer, 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world (1st in ME), 3rd largest producer

  • ethnicity and religion

    • Ethnicity

      • Overwhelmingly Iranian (95%+)

      • More specifically, 61% Persian, 15% Azeri (Azerbaijan), …

      • NOTE: 10% Kurdish

    • Religion

      • Sunni vs. Shia

        • 90% Shia (Sunni stronghold is… Kurds!) → creates a religious and ethnic cleavaeg

      • Most Iranian shia are Twelvers

      • Correlation between Shia/Sunni split and Iran’s political challenges

        • Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni

  • Critical Junctures

    • The Safavids (1501-1722)

      • People of the Book

    • The Qajars (1794-1925)

    • The Pahlavis (1925-1979): the royal family of Iran with 2 Shahs (father and son)

      • Imperial Iran refers to the Shah

        • Reza Shah Pahlavi (1925-1941) → seceded power to his son

          • Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (1941-1979)

            • Around late 1940s- early 1950s: push for democracy in Iran (anti-imperial)

            • Iran elected Mohammad Mosaddegh to be president

        • Mohammad Mosaddegh (1951-1953)

          • kicked Brits out of Iran after Britain set up the oil industry

          • M6 and CIA overthrew Mosaddegh → Shah is back

        • Shah started the “White Revolution” (a period of economic development and social spending that lifted people out of poverty, fixed infrastructure, etc.)

          • Religious traditionalists thought this was too western (led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) → he was exiled and went to southern Iraq (Najaf) and then to Paris

      • people were not happy with the Shah because they didn’t feel the benefits of the White Revolution → The Islamic/Iranian Revolution (1979)

        • Political Islam: the politicalization of the faith; use of political forces to achieve a political objective (to get rid of the Shah and western institutions to make an Islamic state)

        • The Iranian Revolution itself

          • the Shah was overthrown, fled to Egypt then around the world (also had cancer at the time)

          • Khomeini became president

        • Iranian Hostage Crisis (52 people, 444 days): American embassy was taken over by Revolutionaries and a group of students took it over in Tehran

          • released the day Reagan was elected

      • The Islamic Republic (1979-present)

        • Relations with Europe and the U.S.

          • Hostage Crisis didn’t help relations…

          • harder for Europe because of the anti-British sentiment, France had strong ties with Revolutionaries Iran

        • Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)

          • Iraq invaded Iran

          • one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century (WW1/trench warfare style)

          • the US supported iraq (arms)

            • Anti-American spirit in Iranian government because of this

          • Khomeini regime was fighting for survival (new regime)

            • Iraq wanted oil resources and viewed Iran as weak

          • ended in a stalemate; Iraq was bankrupt

            • they later invaded Kuwait in 1990 to try again (Gulf-War)

      • Iran after 9/11 (George W Bush gave a speech saying that America will see countries as enemies when they funded the country that attacked us)

        • Iran Nuclear Program

          • multiple attempts to curb

          • Israel: cyber warfare

          • JCPOA/Iran Nuclear Deal

        • Israel Rhetoric (towards Israel)

        • Proxy conflict with Saudi Arabia - Yemen

          • Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposite sides

  • Society and Economy

    • Huge amount of state investment went into social welfare (“White Revolution”)

      • Once the Shah was restore, they realized that in order to fall into the democratic elected leader, that the Shah needed to bring something to the table

      • designed to modernizing Iran

        • rural communities → cities

        • reclaiming Iran’s cultural place in the world

      • To sustain the white revolution, a lot of social welfare investment was needed (infrastructure, schools, healthcare, unemployment benefits, etc.)

        • All fueled by oil since Mosaddegh (nationalized the oil industry)

      • CIA and MI6 put the Shah back, British wanted access to the oil

    • Inequalities created a dual society - on one side the modern sector, and on the other side the traditional sector

      • Some people really bought the White Revolution (westernization); other half (traditional) that took offense to this modernization (things being depicted in media that was anti-Islamic)

        • Anti-Islamic meaning showing of alcohol, women showing skin, etc.

      • The second component of this dual society is a religious elite on one side, and a middle class on the other side

    • Rentier state - A country that obtains much of its revenue from the export of oil or other natural resources.

      • Resource curse

      • By 1978 (prior to the Islamic Revolution), oil financed over 90% of imports and 80% of the annual budget

        • Oil was the original source

      • Atlantic Council: 2009 → 60% of revenue; 2020 → 30% or revenue; usually hovers between 20-30% (started making more natural gas)

    • Iran’s Economy under the Islamic Republic

      • Suffered due to sanctions

      • Immediately following the revolution, a number of European countries were put in a difficult position

      • US stopped giving weapons

      • UK, Germany, France, etc. cut off ties when nuclearizing happened → turned to China and Russia

      • still reliant on natural gas and petroleum

    • Most Iranian’s benefited economically in the 1990’s

    • Literacy up

    • Infant Mortality down

    • Life expectancy up

    • GDP per capita up

    • Etc. Etc. Etc.

  • Environmental Issues

    • Aridity and lack of regular rainfall

      • Dry, desert-like, mountainous conditions = hard to grow crops

    • Coastal region is good for agriculture

      • Iran is a world leader in the production of dates, pistachios, pomegranate’s

    • Air pollution

      • Oil/natural gas production = extraction (leaks and spills happen)

        • Refined to a point where its usable goes through a refinery

        • Lots of developing countries don’t have as strict policies, so these countries pollute more

          • Poorly refined gasoline (doesn’t pertain to oil as much)

      • Tehran; high population concentration = smog (not to the point of Beijing)

    • Led to a reform movement

      • Solar and nuclear energy (actual nuclear energy)

  • Iran in the Global Economy

    • Occurred in the later half of the 19th century (1800s when oil was discovered and western countries moved into the area)

      • British mandate ended in the early 1900s as the Persian empire declined, Iran became increasingly relevant on a global scale

    • Economic dependency

      • Export a lot of oil, natural gas, and agriculture

      • Import a lot of advanced, technological goods

    • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (control oil quotas and production to make sure that we aren’t flooding the oil and that oil doesn’t become scarce)

      • Oil revenue

      • Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. don’t produce at full capacity

        • Iran does not produce at full capacity because of technological lacking (but has enough reserves)

  • Organization of the State

    • Theocracy with democratic features (we often depict Iran as an autocracy but they have democratic principles)

      • Suffrage is pretty universal

      • Not many attempts of voter oppression

      • Say in government

    • Religious clerics control most powerful political positions 

      • Iran’s governmental power and authority is derived from God, Divine Justice, the Qur’an, the Day of Judgement, the Prophet Muhammad, the Twelve Imams, the eventual return of the Hidden Imam (the Mahdi), and of course, Khomeini’s doctrine of jurist’s guardianship.

        • Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran and founded the revolution

          • Jurist’s Guardianship: notion that not elected officials, but religious leaders, should be the final arbiter on matter of state and governance

            • People who are senior Islamic officials/scholars should rule the system

      • High government officials (President) are directly elected by the general public

        • All citizens, male and female, over 18 have the right to vote

  • The Executive

    • The Leader and Major Organizations of Clerical Power

      • The Supreme Leader- now elected by 88 member Assembly of Experts; wide-ranging power

        • Has had 2 so far (Khomeini and Khamenei)

          • Khomeini had said that if no given successor could be chosen, a counsel of senior religious leaders should govern Iran

          • Assembly of Experts (tasked with choosing the Supreme Leader) was worried that a counsel would have brought radical people to be broadly representative, felt that choosing someone that was not controversial would be the best choice

            • Chose Khamenei, not a senior official and was a mid-level religious official (he was the least controversial and fairly agreeable)

      • Guardian Council- can veto parliamentary bills, review all candidates for the presidency, majles, and other offices; 12 members (6 nominated by Leader; 6 by chief judges, approved by majles).

        • They are really making sure that Iran stays sufficiently Islamic

      • Expediency Council- authority to resolve differences between the majles and Guardian Council (heads of each branch of government, the Guardian Council, each cabinet department, and select individuals nominated by the Supreme Leader)

        • Composed of Guardian council, heads of each branch of government, cabinet representatives, and designated individuals nominated by the Supreme Leader

    • The Government Executive

      • The President is elected every 4 years; second highest-ranking leader; must win outright majority or there’s a runoff election; 2 term limit (no plurality)

      • Conduct internal and external policy, chair the NSC (National Security Council), supervise budget and spending, propose legislation to the majlis, appoint cabinet and senior officials.

    • The Bureaucracy

      • 1.7 million employees, over ½ are civil servants

      • Important ministries include Culture and Islamic Guidance, Intelligence, Heavy Industries, and Reconstruction

    • The Policy-Making Process

      • Highly fluid and diffuse, reflecting the regime’s factional divisions

      • Two blocs

        • The Society (Majmu’eh) of the Militant Clergy- reformers/populists, welfare state

        • The Association (Jam’eh) of the Militant Clergy- conservatives, laissez-faire

      • Expediency Council

  • Other State Institutions

    • The Judiciary - the central pillar of the Islamic Republic, superior to the executive and legislative branches, all laws must conform to religious law

    • The Military

      • IRGC (Revolutionary Guard)

        • The part of the military that is designed to keep the Islamic Republic in power

      • Comparatively small budget

    • Subnational Government

      • Elements of “federalism,” but Iran is a unitary state; empower the state governments to take action

        • They are unitary because they can easily remove that power

    • Semipublic Institutions (Iranian term for a quango)

      • Public enterprises, extends state control of society and the economy.