Lecture 17: Elections and Voter Behavior

History of Voting

The early voting process has transformed significantly. In the 19th century, public voting was standard, with individuals announcing preferences or using colored balls. This open process evolved into more private methods. Back then, transparency was prioritized over privacy, and community influence was a major factor in voting decisions.

The transition to paper ballots was a significant step, though initially informal. Party tickets distributed through newspapers or party supporters limited voter choice to a single party's candidates. The introduction of the Australian ballot—a comprehensive, government-provided, and private voting method—became widespread in the US after the Civil War, marking a key development in election history. This ensured that voters could make choices freely, without overt pressure.

By 1880, states began listing presidential candidates directly on ballots, shifting from electors. The 17th Amendment in 1913 further democratized the process, allowing direct election of senators. Primary elections now dictate party nominees, though party elites still influence outcomes through financial backing and endorsements. This influence highlights ongoing debates about the balance between grassroots democracy and established power structures within political parties.

Ballot measures like initiatives, referendums, and propositions enable direct citizen votes on issues. In Florida, constitutional amendments need a 60% supermajority, showcasing the high threshold for direct democratic action. Such measures vary widely across states, reflecting diverse approaches to citizen engagement in legislative matters.

Different Types of Elections

The US uses a two-step election process: primary elections determine party representatives, and general elections decide officeholders. This system creates multiple opportunities for voter participation but also presents challenges in terms of voter fatigue and strategic voting.

Primary elections involve parties choosing their candidates for the general election. While parties have some autonomy, states regulate these elections, especially regarding who can vote in them (e.g., closed vs. open primaries). Political scientists emphasize that party elites still impact voter choices through money and endorsements. The dynamics within primary elections often reflect broader ideological battles within the parties themselves.

General elections for national and state offices are held in November, with the winner usually determined by a simple plurality. However, some states, like Georgia, require a majority, necessitating runoffs. Presidential elections occur every four years, while midterm elections, with typically lower turnout, take place in between. Midterm elections often serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.

Voter Turnout

Compared to other democracies, the United States exhibits relatively low voter turnout. Turnout is measured by calculating the percentage of the voting-age population that participates, where the US ranks in the middle to lower end.

Several factors contribute to this, including separate voter registration processes, the absence of compulsory voting, and the impact of the Electoral College. Compulsory voting, legally requiring citizens to vote (often with a fine for non-compliance), boosts turnout in certain countries. The Electoral College may depress turnout, as voters in reliably red or blue states might perceive their vote as less influential. Variations in state-level election policies also significantly affect turnout rates.

Other reasons include frequent elections, a perceived lack of meaningful choice, distrust in elections, and feelings of inadequate representation. An influential voter turnout equation elucidates individual voting decisions: P * B + D > C, where:

• $P$ is the probability of a decisive vote.

• $B$ represents the direct benefits of the preferred candidate winning.

• $D$ signifies the direct benefits of voting itself.

• $C$ denotes the costs of voting.

Simplifying the equation by assuming $P$ is nearly zero leads to D > C, suggesting people vote when the act of voting itself provides more benefits than costs. This simplification highlights the importance of psychological and social factors in voter behavior.

Direct benefits ($D$) include extrinsic factors like signaling voting to society (e.g., "I voted" stickers) and avoiding peer pressure. Intrinsic benefits involve the satisfaction of supporting one's party (party cheerleading) and fulfilling a sense of civic duty. The influence of social networks and community norms on these benefits is substantial.

Voting costs ($C$) encompass opportunity costs (time spent voting), informational costs (researching candidates), and physical costs (travel to polling locations). Long wait times at polling stations tend to disproportionately affect minority districts, raising concerns about equitable access to voting. Efforts to reduce these costs are central to voter mobilization strategies.

General factors influencing voter turnout include:

• Higher education levels.

• Increased household income.

• Older age.

These demographic factors often correlate with the Democratic Party affiliation. However, the strength and consistency of these correlations can vary over time and across different regions.

Strategies to increase voter turnout involve:

• Get-out-the-vote efforts.

• Motor voter registration.

• Same-day registration.

• Election day holidays.

• Mail-in voting.

• Alternative voting systems like instant runoff voting.

• Compulsory voting.

These strategies aim to lower the costs of voting and enhance its perceived benefits. The effectiveness of each approach depends on the specific context and the target population.

Election Security and How People Vote

Election integrity has become a focal point, leading to more states requiring photo IDs. Debates often revolve around voter fraud (illegal ballots being counted) versus voter suppression (eligible voters being unable to vote). Election experts largely agree that voter fraud is not a significant issue in the US, although perceptions of its prevalence can affect public trust in elections.

Voter ID laws are intended to prevent voter impersonation, which is rare. The potential consequences for impersonation outweigh the limited benefits. Suppression, though less common, remains a serious concern. Studies indicate that ID laws can decrease eligible voter access, particularly for those without photo IDs. The impact of these laws is an ongoing subject of debate and research.

Data indicates that impersonation is the rarest form of voter fraud. The Heritage Foundation's study of 800,000,000 ballots identified only 3,000 fraudulent cases. Conversely, suppression can have substantial impacts, with studies showing that voter ID requirements may decrease eligible voter access by approximately one or two percentage points. Even small percentage decreases can affect election outcomes, particularly in closely contested races.

Roughly 90% of voters vote for the candidate of their party, especially in presidential elections. Ideology exerts a modest independent influence. The personality characteristics of candidates may play a minor role, although findings vary across studies. Scandals can significantly impact voter choice. Physical attributes, such as height and attractiveness, can influence voting, particularly in local races where name recognition and personal appeal may be more salient.

Campaign effects are generally limited, especially in presidential elections. Persuasion is challenging due to voters' strong pre-existing beliefs and selective attention. Debates can have a more pronounced impact in primary elections, when voters are still deciding