ECC 8

Systems Transitions: Urban, Rural and Infrastructure Transition

System Transition - IPCC

  • Land, Ocean and Ecosystems Transition (see previous slides)
  • Urban, Rural and Infrastructure Transition
  • Energy System Transition
  • Cross Sectoral System Transition

The Urban Adaptation Gap to Current Climate Risks: Inequality in All World Regions

The graphic illustrates the urban adaptation gap, showing the residual risk after adaptation actions, across different world regions and for various types of adaptation.

  • Key Components:
    • Extreme Events and/or Chronic Risk: These are the climate-related hazards that urban areas face.
    • Adaptation Actions Deployed: Measures taken to reduce the impact of these risks.
    • Impacts on Wellbeing: How these risks and adaptation actions affect the population.
    • The Urban Adaptation Gap: The remaining risk after current and planned adaptation measures are implemented.
  • Inequality: The graph emphasizes inequality by comparing the highest (20%) income population versus the lowest (20%) income population.
  • Regional Analysis:
    • Africa: Higher adaptation gap.
    • Asia: Higher adaptation gap in Central and South Asia, and North and East Asia.
    • Australasia: Adaptation gap shown.
    • Central and South America: Adaptation gap shown.
    • Europe: Adaptation gap shown.
    • North America: Adaptation gap shown.
    • Small Islands: Higher adaptation gap.
  • Types of Adaptation:
    • Adaptation to rain/river flooding.
    • Adaptation to storm/coastal flooding.
    • Adaptation to heatwaves.
    • Adaptation to water security.
    • Adaptation to food security.

Solution Spaces for the Policy Action Gap

The diagram presents different approaches to bridge the "Policy action gap" by facilitating coordination, supporting visionary design, addressing inequalities, enabling co-production, and delivering on the needs of the most vulnerable.

  • Multi-level, Multi-actor: Facilitates coordination across separate actors and interests and supports visionary and imaginative design.
  • Actor-led Multi-level: Addresses inequalities through intersectional perspectives and moves from mainstreaming to transformative adaptation.
  • Place-bound Multi-actor: Enables the co-production of adaptation strategies with citizens.
  • Place-bound Actor-led: Delivers on the needs of the most vulnerable.

Climate Urban Emergency Opportunity

  • This section emphasizes how national governments can secure economic prosperity and avert climate catastrophe by transforming cities.

About the Coalition for Urban Transitions

  • The Coalition for Urban Transitions is a leading initiative that helps national governments secure economic prosperity and tackle the climate crisis by transforming cities.
  • The Coalition equips national governments with evidence and policy options to deliver more compact, connected, clean urban development.
  • The Coalition’s country programs in China, Ghana, Mexico, and Tanzania provide models for effectively developing national urban policies and infrastructure investment strategies.

Definition of Urban Area

  • Urban areas are defined in different ways around the world, including by local government type, population density, built-up area, or commuting range.
  • Different definitions are appropriate for different geographies and questions. The report uses the term “city” to encompass urban areas of all sizes.

As Cities Go, So Goes the Planet

  • Cities are critical. 80%80\% of global GDP, 75%75\% of energy-related emissions, and 50%50\% of the population (over 2/32/3 by 2050) are attributed to cities.

The Solution: Zero-Carbon Cities

  • National governments that create compact, connected, and clean cities will secure economic prosperity and better living standards.
  • Countries that do not embrace the zero-carbon urban transition will be left behind.

We Know the Pathway to Zero-Carbon Cities

  • This section notes that there is a pathway to reduce urban emissions by 2050 by creating zero-carbon cities.

Over Half of the Urban Abatement Potential Is in Cities with Fewer Than 1 Million Residents

  • This highlights the importance of focusing on smaller cities with populations under 1 million for urban abatement efforts.

These Investments Will Yield Benefits That Exceed Their Costs by Almost US24TrillionbyMid−Century</h4><ul><li>Investmentsinurbantransitionswillyieldsignificanteconomicbenefits.</li><li><strong>InvestmentRequired</strong>:Newinvestmentof24 Trillion by Mid-Century</h4> <ul> <li>Investments in urban transitions will yield significant economic benefits.</li> <li><strong>Investment Required</strong>: New investment of2\%ofglobalGDPperyear.</li><li><strong>AnnualReturns</strong>:USof global GDP per year.</li> <li><strong>Annual Returns</strong>: US2.8 trillion per year by 2030 and US6.9trillionperyearby2050fromenergyandmaterialcostsavingsalone.</li><li><strong>JobSupport</strong>:Support87millionjobsin2030and45millionjobsin2050.</li></ul><h4id="compactconnectedcleancitiesaremoreproductiveandmoreinnovativedrivingmediumandlongtermgrowth">Compact,Connected,CleanCitiesAreMoreProductiveandMoreInnovative,DrivingMedium−andLong−TermGrowth</h4><ul><li>Higherproximityanddensityenablespecialization,knowledgespillovers,andeconomiesofscale.</li><li>Countrieswithzero−carboncitieswillwintheglobalraceformobiletalentandinvestment.</li></ul><h4id="thecostsofinactionarestaggeringsealevelriseisanurbanthreat">TheCostsofInactionAreStaggering:SeaLevelRiseIsanUrbanThreat</h4><ul><li>Over6.9 trillion per year by 2050 from energy and material cost savings alone.</li> <li><strong>Job Support</strong>: Support 87 million jobs in 2030 and 45 million jobs in 2050.</li> </ul> <h4 id="compactconnectedcleancitiesaremoreproductiveandmoreinnovativedrivingmediumandlongtermgrowth">Compact, Connected, Clean Cities Are More Productive and More Innovative, Driving Medium- and Long-Term Growth</h4> <ul> <li>Higher proximity and density enable specialization, knowledge spillovers, and economies of scale.</li> <li>Countries with zero-carbon cities will win the global race for mobile talent and investment.</li> </ul> <h4 id="thecostsofinactionarestaggeringsealevelriseisanurbanthreat">The Costs of Inaction Are Staggering: Sea Level Rise Is an Urban Threat</h4> <ul> <li>Over10\%oftheworld’spopulation(820millionpeople)livelessthan10metersabovesealevel.</li><li>of the world’s population (820 million people) live less than 10 meters above sea level.</li> <li>90\%ofthesepeople(over700million)liveinurbancentersorquasi−urbanclusters.</li><li>Populationsincitieslessthan10metersabovesealevelaregrowingmostrapidly.</li></ul><h4id="climatemitigationandadaptationmustgohandinhandcompacturbangrowthenhancesresilienceandfoodsecurity">ClimateMitigationandAdaptationMustGoHandinHand:CompactUrbanGrowthEnhancesResilienceandFoodSecurity</h4><ul><li>Between2000and2014,of these people (over 700 million) live in urban centers or quasi-urban clusters.</li> <li>Populations in cities less than 10 meters above sea level are growing most rapidly.</li> </ul> <h4 id="climatemitigationandadaptationmustgohandinhandcompacturbangrowthenhancesresilienceandfoodsecurity">Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Must Go Hand in Hand: Compact Urban Growth Enhances Resilience and Food Security</h4> <ul> <li>Between 2000 and 2014,112,524 \text{ km}^2oflandwasconvertedtourbanareas(twicethesizeofSriLanka).</li><li>Overhalfwascultivatedland,andoverhalfoftheconversionoccurredinAsia.</li></ul><h4id="nationalgovernmentshaveuniqueandcrucialrolestoplay">NationalGovernmentsHaveUniqueandCrucialRolestoPlay</h4><ul><li>Localgovernmentscannotdrivethezero−carbonurbantransitionalone.</li></ul><h4id="yetfewerthan2in5countrieshaveanexplicitnationalstrategyforcities">Yet,FewerThan2in5CountriesHaveanExplicitNationalStrategyforCities</h4><ul><li>Onlyof land was converted to urban areas (twice the size of Sri Lanka).</li> <li>Over half was cultivated land, and over half of the conversion occurred in Asia.</li> </ul> <h4 id="nationalgovernmentshaveuniqueandcrucialrolestoplay">National Governments Have Unique and Crucial Roles to Play</h4> <ul> <li>Local governments cannot drive the zero-carbon urban transition alone.</li> </ul> <h4 id="yetfewerthan2in5countrieshaveanexplicitnationalstrategyforcities">Yet, Fewer Than 2 in 5 Countries Have an Explicit National Strategy for Cities</h4> <ul> <li>Only39\%ofNationalUrbanPolicies(NUP)andof National Urban Policies (NUP) and14\%ofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDC)speakspecificallytoclimatemitigationinurbanareas.</li><li>OnlysevencountrieshavebothanNDCandaNUPthataddressclimatemitigationinurbanareas.</li></ul><h4id="countrieswithndcandnup">CountrieswithNDCandNUP</h4><ul><li>Colombia,Fiji,Indonesia,Mongolia,Rwanda,SouthSudan,Tonga.</li></ul><h4id="statisticsonndcsandnups">StatisticsonNDCsandNUPs</h4><ul><li>160countriesandregionshavesubmittedanNDC.</li><li>108countrieshavefullyformulatedaNUP.</li><li>23NDCsspeaktoclimatemitigationinurbanareas,with7inadirectwayand16inanimpliedway.</li><li>58NUPsspeaktoclimatemitigationinurbanareas.</li><li>Manymorespeaktoclimatemitigationinurban−relevantsectorssuchasbuildings,transport,andwaste.</li><li>28NDCshighlyspeaktoclimateadaptationandresilienceinurbanareas.</li><li>30NUPsmoderatelyspeaktoclimateadaptationandresilienceinurbanareas.</li></ul><h4id="governmentsintheoecdandbriicscountriesspendusdd416billioneachyearsupportingfossilfuelconsumptioninurbanareas">GovernmentsintheOECDandBRIICSCountriesSpendUSof Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) speak specifically to climate mitigation in urban areas.</li> <li>Only seven countries have both an NDC and a NUP that address climate mitigation in urban areas.</li> </ul> <h4 id="countrieswithndcandnup">Countries with NDC and NUP</h4> <ul> <li>Colombia, Fiji, Indonesia, Mongolia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tonga.</li> </ul> <h4 id="statisticsonndcsandnups">Statistics on NDCs and NUPs</h4> <ul> <li>160 countries and regions have submitted an NDC.</li> <li>108 countries have fully formulated a NUP.</li> <li>23 NDCs speak to climate mitigation in urban areas, with 7 in a direct way and 16 in an implied way.</li> <li>58 NUPs speak to climate mitigation in urban areas.</li> <li>Many more speak to climate mitigation in urban-relevant sectors such as buildings, transport, and waste.</li> <li>28 NDCs highly speak to climate adaptation and resilience in urban areas.</li> <li>30 NUPs moderately speak to climate adaptation and resilience in urban areas.</li> </ul> <h4 id="governmentsintheoecdandbriicscountriesspendusdd416billioneachyearsupportingfossilfuelconsumptioninurbanareas">Governments in the OECD and BRIICS Countries Spend US41.6 Billion Each Year Supporting Fossil Fuel Consumption in Urban Areas

  • This statistic highlights the significant financial support that governments provide for fossil fuel consumption in urban areas.

Most Countries Invest Much More in Road Than Rail

  • Investment priorities often favor road infrastructure over rail, impacting sustainable transport options.

Six Priorities for National Action to Achieve Inclusive, Zero-Carbon, Resilient Cities

  • The leading countries of tomorrow will be those that support an equitable and sustainable transition to a new urban economy.

There Is a Short Window of Opportunity Open Now

  • It is possible to rapidly transform cities within 2-3 decades.
Success Stories - Countries
  • Improving housing quality in cities – Chile
  • Building robust tax and land systems – Rwanda
  • Redirecting fossil fuel subsidies – Indonesia
  • Improving and scaling electric vehicles – China
  • Expanding renewable energy technologies – Germany
Success Stories - Cities
  • Providing affordable housing solutions – Windhoek, Namibia
  • Proactive planning for urban population growth – Seoul, South Korea
  • Protecting and rewarding cyclists - Copenhagen, Denmark
  • Transforming informal settlements - Medellín, Colombia
  • Sorting out solid waste management - Indore, India

Climate Emergency Urban Opportunity - Case Studies

  • Specific case studies are presented in the report, including examples from Seoul, Windhoek, Medellín, Copenhagen, Indore, China, Rwanda, Chile, Indonesia, and Germany.
    • Box 2. Seoul: How planning for urban density fuelled a nation’s economic development p.42seq
    • Box 3. Windhoek: How a participatory approach delivered affordable housing and services at scale p.42 seq
    • Box 4. Medellín: How connecting informal settlements helped transform an embattled city p.48 seq
    • Box 5. Copenhagen: How tax policy and public demand created the world’s cycling capital p.50 seq
    • Box 6. Indore: How public, private and civil society organisations collectively created India’s cleanest city p.54 seq.
    • Box 7: China: Driving an electric transport revolution, p.72 seq.
    • Box 8. Rwanda: Creating effective land and tax administrations, report p.78 et seq
    • Box 9. Chile: Building a vibrant and affordable housing market p.90 et seq
    • Box 10: Indonesia: Financing development through fossil fuel subsidy reform p.96 et seq
    • Box 11. Germany: Powering a renewable energy transition p.100 et seq

Smart Cities Europe - Urban Challenges

  • This section introduces the concept of Smart Cities in Europe, presented by Dana Eleftheriadou from the European Commission.

EU: What Are Smart Cities?

  • A smart city is a place where traditional networks and services are made more efficient with the use of digital solutions.
  • Smart cities use digital technologies for better resource use and less emissions, smarter urban transport networks, upgraded infrastructure, and more efficient administration.

EU: Explore Smart Cities

  • The European Commission provides resources to explore smart city initiatives.

Smart Villages

  • Smart Villages are communities in rural areas that use innovative solutions building on local strengths and opportunities.
  • They rely on a participatory approach and mobilize digital technologies.
  • Using digital technologies is not a precondition for becoming a Smart Village.
  • Cooperation and alliances with other villages and urban areas are important.

Smart Villages - Enabling a Transition

  • The transition involves moving from declining jobs, inadequate services, and digital divide to digital transformation, low-carbon economy, and new forms of mobility.

Components of the Digital Divide

  • The digital divide consists of connectivity, applications, skills, and awareness gaps.

Digital Transformation

  • Digital transformation is both a cause and effect.
  • Connectivity rates vary across EU countries, with rural areas lagging.
  • 76%76\% of EU citizens are NGA connected, but only 40%40\% in rural areas.

How to Ensure That Digital Strategies Benefit Rural Communities

  • Better targeting of investments in broadband infrastructure and connectivity.
  • Develop strategies for building digital skills.
  • Build rural digital ecosystems.
  • Promote coordinated governance.
Actions for Digital Strategies
  • Review digital needs and opportunities, build a vision, and create a strategy.
  • Bring together local users, public bodies, suppliers, and researchers.
  • Aggregate demand, build a business case, and develop a financial plan.
Examples
  • Lormes (FR), Kuhno (FI), Balquhidder (UK), Molenwaard (NL)
Upskill Local Stakeholders
  • Upskill local stakeholders to deliver training initiatives.
  • Identify and enable digital champions.
  • La Wab (FR) is an example.
Build Rural Digital Ecosystems
  • Map and identify key gaps and opportunities.
  • Support enablers like digital hubs and living labs.
  • Link regional to local initiatives.
Promote Coordinated Governance
  • Support partnerships between stakeholders at various levels.
  • Implement software and applications to interconnect different systems.
  • Superfast Cornwall (UK) is an example.

Support for Cooperation

  • Includes training, technical studies, needs audits, pilots, research contracts, small-scale investments, and marketing.

Rapid Urbanization

  • Presents the impacts of rapid urbanization on land, air, and water.

Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) and Rapid Urbanization

  • Explores what BNG is, how it is implemented, lessons learned, and policy recommendations.

Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Urban Air Quality

  • Discusses the current state of air quality, air quality management, and assessment methods.

Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Water

  • Defines sustainable development concerning water, determines urban form, and connects urban water services with the biosphere.