Stock Market Crash
Economic Boom and Bust
- In the cities, people were making fortunes in the stock market, but suddenly, it crashed.
- Economists had claimed a new plateau of prosperity had been reached, but their predictions were incorrect.
The .Com Boom
- Economists believed that America had reached a permanent high point.
- During the .com boom of the early 2000s, some economists made similar claims.
- The speaker recalls owning a small share in a cell phone company that tripled in value.
- People made significant amounts of money, and day traders profited substantially.
- The speaker wrote a story for a new .com newspaper and received $400.
- Companies were throwing money around, creating a crazy environment.
Market Euphoria
- The market experiences moments of absolute euphoria.
- People believed money was easily accessible, but this was not the norm.
- A company went out of business as soon as the stock market declined.
Economic Indicators and Speculation
- Automobile sales and department store revenues declined sharply.
- Trial separations were increasing across the South and West.
- Despite these indicators, optimism continued on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones average reaching its peak on August 27, 1929.
- Buyers were desperate not to miss out, camping out near the stock exchange.
- The American economy began to cool in 1928. The Wall Street economy disconnected from the real economy, leading to a speculative bubble.
Warning Signs and the Inevitable Crash
- Bernard Baruch's story: When his shoeshine boy gave him stock tips, Baruch knew it was time to sell.
- Economist Roger Best warned of an impending crash, but most experts dismissed concerns.
- One expert claimed stock prices had reached a permanently high plateau.
The Crash of 1929
- On Wednesday, October 23, 1929, panicky selling drove down blue-chip stocks.
- The following morning, fear turned to panic, leading to the unloading of margin accounts.
- Stock prices plummeted, spurring further sell orders from terrified speculators.
- The value of companies decreased significantly.
- People gathered outside the stock exchange.
- A consortium of bankers pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the stock exchange to stabilize the market.
The Aftermath and Government Intervention
- Stocks lost value.
- During the tariff announcement, the stock market declined.
- In February 2009, the stock market tumbled rapidly, leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
- Students lost their jobs, and families lost their houses. Some families had to live with students.
- The government bailed out the banks, except for Lehman Brothers.
Housing Market Crisis
- Bad loans were bundled and sold, leading to huge profits.
- The housing market experienced significant growth, with the belief that house prices would only increase.
- The speaker avoided buying a house due to her husband's skepticism about the market bubble.
Crash Patterns and Human Psychology
- Most crashes tend to occur in the fall due to human psychology.
- Speculation seems brilliant in the summer but less so in the fall.
- Too many people selling at once causes the market to drop, triggering more selling.
The Day of the Crash
- Stock prices collapsed under panic selling.
- Brokers fought and screamed, with no computers to assist.
- 16 million shares traded, a record not broken until 1969.
- The market lost 14,000,000,000 in value, with total losses exceeding 30,000,000,000, ten times the annual budget of the United States.
Impact on Investors
- Small investors who bought stock on margin lost significant amounts of money.
- The headline on October 30, 1929, was "Wall Street lays an egg."
- The effects of the crash were drastic.
The Great Depression
- It took a decade for the American economy to fully recover.
- The Great Depression followed the crash, though they were not directly related.
Generational Impact
- The speaker discusses the impact on her grandparents' generation, who grew up during the Great Depression and fought in World War II.
- Her grandmother always saved every bit of food.
Additional Factors
- Farming struggled in the 1920s due to overproduction after expanding to feed Europe during World War I.
- Soil exhaustion and drought led to the Dust Bowl.
Market Manipulation and Human Psychology
- Gambling mentality in the market
- The speaker explains how people get nervous when they notice others selling. The psychology involves: pump and dump, rug pull.
- Selling drives prices down.
Modern Market Concepts
- Modern regulations exist to prevent market manipulation.
- Borrowing money to invest is possible.
- The speaker refers to Hakuto coin and rug pulls.
- The ability to borrow money amplifies both gains and losses in the stock market.