Stock Market Crash

Economic Boom and Bust

  • In the cities, people were making fortunes in the stock market, but suddenly, it crashed.
  • Economists had claimed a new plateau of prosperity had been reached, but their predictions were incorrect.

The .Com Boom

  • Economists believed that America had reached a permanent high point.
  • During the .com boom of the early 2000s, some economists made similar claims.
  • The speaker recalls owning a small share in a cell phone company that tripled in value.
  • People made significant amounts of money, and day traders profited substantially.
  • The speaker wrote a story for a new .com newspaper and received $400.
  • Companies were throwing money around, creating a crazy environment.

Market Euphoria

  • The market experiences moments of absolute euphoria.
  • People believed money was easily accessible, but this was not the norm.
  • A company went out of business as soon as the stock market declined.

Economic Indicators and Speculation

  • Automobile sales and department store revenues declined sharply.
  • Trial separations were increasing across the South and West.
  • Despite these indicators, optimism continued on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones average reaching its peak on August 27, 1929.
  • Buyers were desperate not to miss out, camping out near the stock exchange.
  • The American economy began to cool in 1928. The Wall Street economy disconnected from the real economy, leading to a speculative bubble.

Warning Signs and the Inevitable Crash

  • Bernard Baruch's story: When his shoeshine boy gave him stock tips, Baruch knew it was time to sell.
  • Economist Roger Best warned of an impending crash, but most experts dismissed concerns.
  • One expert claimed stock prices had reached a permanently high plateau.

The Crash of 1929

  • On Wednesday, October 23, 1929, panicky selling drove down blue-chip stocks.
  • The following morning, fear turned to panic, leading to the unloading of margin accounts.
  • Stock prices plummeted, spurring further sell orders from terrified speculators.
  • The value of companies decreased significantly.
  • People gathered outside the stock exchange.
  • A consortium of bankers pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the stock exchange to stabilize the market.

The Aftermath and Government Intervention

  • Stocks lost value.
  • During the tariff announcement, the stock market declined.
  • In February 2009, the stock market tumbled rapidly, leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
  • Students lost their jobs, and families lost their houses. Some families had to live with students.
  • The government bailed out the banks, except for Lehman Brothers.

Housing Market Crisis

  • Bad loans were bundled and sold, leading to huge profits.
  • The housing market experienced significant growth, with the belief that house prices would only increase.
  • The speaker avoided buying a house due to her husband's skepticism about the market bubble.

Crash Patterns and Human Psychology

  • Most crashes tend to occur in the fall due to human psychology.
  • Speculation seems brilliant in the summer but less so in the fall.
  • Too many people selling at once causes the market to drop, triggering more selling.

The Day of the Crash

  • Stock prices collapsed under panic selling.
  • Brokers fought and screamed, with no computers to assist.
  • 16 million shares traded, a record not broken until 1969.
  • The market lost 14,000,000,00014,000,000,000 in value, with total losses exceeding 30,000,000,00030,000,000,000, ten times the annual budget of the United States.

Impact on Investors

  • Small investors who bought stock on margin lost significant amounts of money.
  • The headline on October 30, 1929, was "Wall Street lays an egg."
  • The effects of the crash were drastic.

The Great Depression

  • It took a decade for the American economy to fully recover.
  • The Great Depression followed the crash, though they were not directly related.

Generational Impact

  • The speaker discusses the impact on her grandparents' generation, who grew up during the Great Depression and fought in World War II.
  • Her grandmother always saved every bit of food.

Additional Factors

  • Farming struggled in the 1920s due to overproduction after expanding to feed Europe during World War I.
  • Soil exhaustion and drought led to the Dust Bowl.

Market Manipulation and Human Psychology

  • Gambling mentality in the market
  • The speaker explains how people get nervous when they notice others selling. The psychology involves: pump and dump, rug pull.
  • Selling drives prices down.

Modern Market Concepts

  • Modern regulations exist to prevent market manipulation.
  • Borrowing money to invest is possible.
  • The speaker refers to Hakuto coin and rug pulls.
  • The ability to borrow money amplifies both gains and losses in the stock market.