Models

Model: A representation of a system


Types of Models

Empirical

  • Relies on observation rather than theory

  • ex: “Items frequently bought together”

Theoretical

  • Expected outcomes that can be calculated

  • ex: probability of rolling a 3 on a six-sided die

Deterministic

  • Calculate a future event exactly given all of the necessary data

  • ex: how long will it take to drive 17 miles going 50mph

Probabilistic

  • Handle some level of uncertainty to approximate a likely outcome

  • ex: predicting the weather


Modeling thoughts

  • The right amount of detail is important

  • A rough answer is better than no answer

  • Extra resources → a more sophisticated model

  • An inadequate model may be useful in another situation


Useful models

  • Appropriate level of detail

  • Answer the intended question

  • Allow users to make the “good” decisions

  • Timesaving

“All models are wrong. Some are useful. ”


  1. Experimenting with the real system can be:

    1. Expensive (time and money)

    2. Destructive/Disruptive

  2. The real system may not exist… yet


Modeling tools

  • Math/Science Concepts

  • Prototyping Materials

  • Simulations, CAD, Excel

  • etc.