Foreign Policy of Pakistan Notes

Chapter 7: Foreign Policy of Pakistan

• Foreign policy is shaped by geography, history, and leadership/institutional orientations.
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in conjunction with civil and military leadership, formulates foreign policy.
• Domestic politics significantly influence foreign policy.

Role of Geography

• Geography plays a vital role in shaping Pakistan's foreign policy, defense considerations, and strategic outlook.
• Pakistan's geostrategic location is critical due to its position in South Asia, proximity to the Arabian Peninsula, access to the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.
• China views Pakistan as a strategic opportunity.
• The USA considered Pakistan a crucial part of its Containment policy and a link to Muslim states in the Gulf and Middle East.
• Russia sees Pakistan as a partner in combating terrorism, connecting with Central Asian states, and accessing "warm waters" as Afghanistan stabilizes.
• Emergence of a militant India under Narendra Modi will be contested by Pakistan, slowing the peace process.
• Pakistan has strong cultural and strategic partnerships with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• Growing US-Saudi Arabia and India-US ties increase pressure on Pakistan.
• The looming New Great Game necessitates careful navigation by Pakistan.
• The development of the Chabhar port in Iran, with Indian investments, challenges Pakistan's geo-strategic depth in the Persian Gulf.
• Changing regional equations raise the question of how Pakistan should formulate its foreign policy.
• The US-China rivalry impacts Pakistan's foreign policy options in managing relations within the region into the Persian Gulf.

Historical Context

• Pakistan had a unique advantage due to its location connecting the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
• Its location in Southwest Asia, bordering Afghanistan, made it a pivotal state for the Containment policy against the Soviet Union.
• Pakistan sought to deter threats from India by joining Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO).
• The 1965 war with India and the 1971 breakup of Pakistan rendered these alliances ineffective.
• Six critical moments impacted Pakistan's foreign policy between 1947 and 1971:
  • Joining SEATO and CENTO (1954-55)
  • Participating in the Bandung Conference and the non-aligned movement (1955)
  • The Sino-Indian War (1962) allowed Pakistan to strengthen relations with China.
  • The Sino-Pakistan Treaty (1963) marked the beginning of a strategic partnership, leading to territorial cessions by both sides.
  • China provided military, political, and moral support to Pakistan during the 1965 war with India.
  • Political turmoil from 1966 to 1969, deeply dividing the country and leading to a secessionist movement in East Pakistan.
• India signed a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union in 1971, abandoning its non-aligned policy and supporting insurgents in East Pakistan, leading to the breakup of Pakistan in December 1971.
• The emergence of Bangladesh had a traumatic effect on Pakistan's psyche, socio-economic structures, and politics.
• Post-1971 Pakistan began to tilt towards the Muslim world, showing affinity for Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
• The foreign policy of post-1971 Pakistan can be divided into five eras (1971-2020).
• Each era is shaped by geography, history, leaders, and institutions, manifested through:
  • Change and continuity in relations with great powers: China, the US, and Russia.
  • Solidarity with the Muslim world.
  • Relations with India, including the Kashmir dispute.

National Rejuvenation (1971-1977)

• The breakup of Pakistan led to fears of institutional collapse.
• Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (President and later Prime Minister) rejuvenated the nation.
• Building self-sustaining defense capability was deemed essential.
• Pakistan adopted a three-pronged foreign policy under Bhutto:
  • Distancing from the US while seeking autonomy.
  • Mending relations with the Soviet Union.
  • Deepening strategic partnership with China.
• Pakistan recognized North Korea, East Germany, Vietnam, and Cambodia, showing signs of becoming a regional middle power.
  $National Rejuvenation \text{ Era}: 1971-1977$

Great Powers and Pakistan

• Critical issues in relations with great powers: self-reliance in defense, nuclear capability, and non-aligned foreign policy.
• Pakistan embarked on building a military-industrial complex with China's help post-1971.
• China helped establish the Heavy Mechanical Complex (HMC) and Heavy Foundry (HF).
• Additional facilities were set up, including the Heavy Defence Industry (HDI).
• India's nuclear ambitions compelled Pakistan to join the nuclear race.
• Key turning points:
  • France withdrew support for Pakistan's nuclear plant under US pressure (1976-1978).
  • China stepped in to support Pakistan's nuclear capability starting in 1976.
• The US opposed China's support and pressured Pakistan to abandon its nuclear program.
• Pakistan resisted external pressures and pursued the nuclear program.
• In May 1998, Pakistan conducted nuclear tests following India's tests.
• The nuclearization of South Asia was traced back to India's nuclear explosion in 1974.
• Pakistan proposed de-nuclearization of South Asia in the UN, supported by China.
• The China-Pakistan strategic partnership was strengthened as Pakistan supported the "One China Policy."
• Pakistan played a role in facilitating US-China rapprochement.
• The Indo-Soviet economic and military collaboration continued until the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

US-Pakistan Relations

• US-Pakistan relations shifted in the early 1970s.
• Zulfikar Ali Bhutto withdrew Pakistan from SEATO and CENTO.
• Pakistan kept a diplomatic window open to the US while solidifying relations with China.
• Pakistan emerged as a pivotal conduit state for bridge-building between the US and China.
• Pakistan's nuclear ambitions strained relations with the US.
• President Jimmy Carter advocated nuclear nonproliferation and human rights as key policy goals.
• The US invoked the Symington Amendment in 1977, stopping economic and military aid to Pakistan.
• Pakistan-US relations strained under President Carter, leading to arguments that the US prompted the military to overthrow Bhutto's regime in July 1977.

Solidarity with the Muslim World

• Support for Muslim causes has been a fundamental principle of Pakistan's foreign policy.

• Pakistan pursued this policy with greater vigor and diplomatic skill after 1971.

• This was reflected in the Second Islamic Summit Conference held in Lahore in 1974.

• Pakistan has consistently supported Muslim and Arab states in difficult situations.

• Examples include supporting Palestinian rights, opposing recognition of Israel, and showing solidarity with Rohingyas and Kashmiri Muslims.

• Pakistan provided military assistance to Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

• In 1964, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey created the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) to strengthen cultural and economic ties.

• The RCD focused on research and development projects, including family planning, oil exploration, and communications.

• After the Iranian revolution, the RCD's growth was limited, but it remains a dynamic model of regional cooperation.

• In 1969, a fire at the Aqsa Mosque caused panic in the Muslim world, leading to a meeting of Muslim countries in Rabat.

• Pakistan conveyed its concerns to the UN Secretary General and called for Muslim unity.

• Pakistan insisted that India be denied attendance at the Rabat conference.

• The Rabat conference led to the formation of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation).

• Syria and Egypt banded together to retake captured lands from Israel in 1973, leading to the Arab-Israeli war.

• Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto showed solidarity with Egypt and Syria, calling for the evacuation of occupied territories according to UN Security Council Resolution 242 of 1967.

• Bhutto visited Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to coordinate diplomatic efforts and mobilize support for Syria and Egypt.

• The Second Islamic Summit was held in Lahore in February 1974.

• Pakistan has held its stance that without resolving the Palestine-Israel conflict and restoring the Holy Land to its lawful residents, peace in the Middle East is unlikely.

Re-defining Relations with India

• The rivalry and distrust are rooted in the history of independence and the partitioning of British India.
• Many Pakistanis believe India reluctantly accepted the creation of Pakistan.
• The 1971 breakup of Pakistan was seen as an act of Indian aggression.
• Under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan launched a process of national rejuvenation and mending fences with India for four reasons:
  • Recognition of Bangladesh despite the loss.
  • New Pakistan was predominantly Muslim (97%).
  • India captured territory in Pakistani Kashmir.
  • India held over 90,000 Pakistani troops and civilians as prisoners of war (POWs).
  • The Kashmir dispute acquired new urgency.
• In 1972, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto negotiated peace and terms of withdrawal of Indian forces in Simla with three broad goals: release of POWs, regaining Pakistani territory, and delaying recognition of Bangladesh until POWs were returned.
• The Simla Agreement led to:
  • Declaration of the ceasefire line as the Line of Control (LoC).
  • Early release of POWs.
  • Pakistan recognized Bangladesh, expediting the release of POWs.

Great Powers and the Changing Regional Environment, Alliance and Afghan Jihad (1977-1988)

• In July 1977, General Zia-ul-Haq overthrew the civilian government with a stable relationship with China, normal relations with the Soviet Union, and relative peace with India.
• Under General Zia's regime, there was continuity in foreign policy.
• Islamization policies endeared the regime to religious groups, boosting religious militancy.
• Soviet intervention in Afghanistan (1979) provided the US an opportunity to act decisively against 'Soviet aggression'.
• By 1979, Pakistan's relationship with the US had reached an all-time low, and the year was marked by:
  • The Khomeini Revolution (February 1979).
  • Execution of Bhutto (April 1979).
  • Burning of the American Embassy (November 1979).
  • Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (December 1979).
  • The Soviet invasion changed the fortunes of Zia's regime in Pakistan.
• The regime welcomed Afghan refugees as brothers of faith.
• President Jimmy Carter’s administration was startled with Soviet intervention and slow in re-engaging with Pakistan.
• The Zia regime argued that the US first needed to grasp the gravity of the situation.
• Pakistan was keen to ensure the continuity of its nuclear program amid nuclear embargoes.

US-Pakistan Relations during Afghan War

*President Ronald Reagan took over in the US, he showed greater vigour and vision in thwarting Soviet intervention and that changed the fortunes of Zia's military regime in Pakistan.
*Pakistan was declared a "frontline state" that the US could rely on to halt the Soviet expansion in Afghanistan.
*Reagan declared the Soviet Union as an 'evil empire' and the Afghan insurgents as 'Mujaheedin'-the freedom fighters.
* Thus began the first Afghan Jihad and Pakistan and US revived and energized the painfully enduring US-Pakistan relationship
*Reagan's administration rebuilt a framework of the US-Pakistan collaboration that provided an aid package of military and economic assistance to achieve the policy goal.
*In 1981, Reagan announced a $USD 3.2 \text{ billion }$aid package spread over six years at $USD 400 \text{ million } \text{ per year }$for military purchases, including F-16s, and $USD 100 \text{ million per year in economic aid}$.
*The collaboration between the two had started at a modest level of covert operations.
*During the Zia years (1977-88), particularly starting 1981, the US-Pakistan partnership expanded, and Pakistan become the largest recipient of US economic and military assistance, and as a reliable ally.

Relations with the Muslim World

• The fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 led to the making of the Islamic Republic of Iran under Ayatollah Khomeini.
• The Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan further flustered the already divided Muslim World.
• The Afghan Jihad brought Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt closer under the US tutelage.
• The Islamic regime in Iran was declared by the US as inimical to its interests in the Middle East and Gulf region.
• The Iraq-Iran war (1979-89) further deepened the gulf in the Muslim World.

Changing Dynamics of Indo- Pakistan Relations

• In 1979, when the Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan, India, being an ally, could not oppose Soviet action.
• Pakistan denounced the Soviet intervention and welcomed the Afghan refugees mobilize support of the Muslim countries for Afghan cause and indeed kept channels of communications and support open with the US.
• Focusing on the Afghan Jihad, Pakistan energized a bilateral framework with the US. In supporting Afghan resistance to Soviet intervention, Zia's regime, sensibly, restrained itself from any direct confrontation with the Soviet Union.
  • The year 1984 was eventful for India and Pakistan for domestic politics and for external relations. That year, at the pinnacle of Afghan Jihad, when India and Pakistan had skirmishes in the Siachen Glacier region in Kashmir, General Zia trivialized it and avoided any military escalation.
  • In the same year, the Sikh insurgency in Indian Punjab blew out of proportion and led to the murder of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
• silver lining was the creation of South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Democratic Dispensation (1988-1999)

• During the decade of 1988-99, Pakistan made a painful transition towards the revival of party-led democracy and struggled fruitlessly to institutionalize a parliamentary form of government.

• Pakistan was confronted with the challenge of reconciling security imperative and reorienting its foreign policy.

• on 17 August 1988, Zia died in an unfortunate air crash. It dampened an era of the US-Pakistan strategic partnership during War in Afghanistan. Zia was discomforted by the Afghanistan peace process.

• In elections, Benazir Bhutto emerged as the president.

Paradox of Seeking Peace and Conflict Resolution

• Benazir Bhutto initiated a dialogue to reconcile with India, and improve relations with the Soviet Union.

Global War on Terror (GWT) and Globalization (1999-2008)

• On 9/11 attack on Twin Towers in New York happened, the US policy towards Pakistan underwent drastic transformation
• Musharraf's regime comes in position because of Pakistan support in war on terror.

Dynamics India

• US civil Nuclear agreement comes under discussion.

• President Donald Trump alleged for lying on Pakistan