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Breakdown of the State in Iraq Post-2003
Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the state experienced a breakdown.
Implications: This breakdown allowed Al Qaeda and similar movements to operate freely.
Targeting: The groups launched attacks on foreign military, local government, and civilian targets.
Sunni Rebels in Syria Post-2011
After 2011, Sunni rebels emerged in neighboring Syria.
Territorial Control: They established autonomous zones in primarily thinly populated areas.
Militant Activity: These zones became home to both international and homegrown militant movements.
Emergence of the Islamic State (IS)
In 2013, a new Sunni militant organization emerged from the chaos of Iraq and Syria.
Major Events: The group's notoriety grew dramatically in 2014 due to:
A significant military victory in Mosul, Iraq.
Disturbing execution videos shared online by a Western journalist.
Lethal attacks in European cities and one American city by pledging allegiance to IS.
Panic Stoked: The group's methods incited fear globally, even among Americans distant from the conflict.
Public Pressure for Military Intervention
The events surrounding IS led to unprecedented public pressure on the US government for military action, likened to the post-9/11 atmosphere.
Presidential Responses:
Obama weighed caution from Iraq and Afghanistan against successful interventions in Libya and Pakistan before deciding on a multinational air campaign.
Trump upheld the same military strategy, ultimately leading to the defeat of IS's claimed territory and death of its leader by 2019.
The Political Landscape in Iraq
Post-2011 US Withdrawal: Al Qaeda leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi capitalized on the political vacuum post US withdrawal in December 2011.
Leadership Context: At that time, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was perceived as easing political tensions, but quickly reverted to persecution of Sunni Arabs.
Discrimination: Maliki’s Shia-led government marginalized Sunni Arabs, attempting to diminish their political power and access to government revenue.
Legacy of Sunni Privilege: Sunni Arabs had been a relatively privileged minority under Saddam Hussein's regime.
Rise of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Background: Al-Baghdadi, born in Samarra in 1971, claimed descent from the Qurayshi tribe, lending credence to his claim of divine leadership.
Formed an armed Sunni group in Eastern Iraq and led Al-Qaeda's Iraq branch, later becoming IS.
Detention Years: Captured by US forces in 2005; during his four years in detention, he reportedly trained with key Al Qaeda fighters.
Leadership Transition: Became leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq in 2010, following the deaths of previous leaders.
US Designation: In October 2011, Baghdadi was labeled a terrorist with a reward for capture.
Transformation of Al Qaeda to Islamic State
Claim of Territory: By June 2013, Baghdadi distanced IS from Al Qaeda's leadership, asserting its independence and transforming it through starkly different strategies.
Comparative Hierarchy: Noted that while Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda avoided territorial control, al-Baghdadi embraced it, seeking to govern areas autonomously.
1500 Years of History: al-Baghdadi believed he would alter historical narratives through chaos and control.
Syrian Civil War's Role
Syria as Opportunity: The ongoing civil war in Syria starting in 2012 provided a fertile ground for al-Baghdadi’s recruitment.
Recruitment Geography: Rebel-held areas adjacent to Iraq provided sanctuary and refuge for fleeing Sunni Arab fighters.
Abdul Musab al-Zarqawi and Legacy of Violence
Zarqawi’s Influence: The Jordanian leader mastermind violent tactics, such as bombings and public executions, which influenced al-Baghdadi.
Despite Al-Qaeda’s ideological aversion to such military strategies alienating Muslim sentiment, Baghdadi adopted them.
Operational Distinctions: Unlike Al-Qaeda, which focused on US targets, Baghdadi did not hesitate to engage in internal sectarian cruelty against Shia Muslims.
Differences from Other Groups
Authority of Leaders: Contrast between Mullah Omar of the Taliban, who maintained traditional political principles, and Baghdadi, who sought extensive territorial control across borders.
Goals: Baghdadi rejected limitations of modern statehood and pursued a caliphate overarching two national boundaries, pushing a universal Islamist agenda.
Expansion and Nomenclature of IS
In April 2013, Baghdadi renamed IS to include its growing operations in Syria.
Terminology: Various names resulted in acronyms such as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant).
IS's Attack and Territorial Expansion
The group is believed to have attracted around 40,000 fighters, mostly from Iraq and Syria, including 5,000 Europeans and about 300 Americans.
IS established significant infrastructure in the Syrian city of Raqqa, serving as a command center for territorial expansion.
The Territorial Control of ISIS
The area of control reached approximately 40,000 square miles, highlighting the sparse population density in many contested zones.
The map demonstrates a significant discrepancy between perceived control and actual governance over urban centers among many territories held.
Conclusion
Despite fleeting successes and territorial control, international backlash and coordinated counteroffensives significantly impeded IS’s expansion efforts.