State of the World 2017: Autocratization and Exclusion

Global Trend of Autocratization

Article presents evidence of a global trend of autocratization.
While the majority of the world’s population lives under democratic rule, 2.5 billion people were subjected to autocratization in 2017.
In 2017, democratic qualities declined in 24 countries, including populous nations like India and the United States.
The article also highlights that men and wealthy groups hold a strong grip on political power in countries where 86% of the world population resides.
Political exclusion based on socio-economic status is becoming increasingly severe. The wealthy have gained significant power in countries home to 1.9 billion people over the past decade.

Decline of Democracy

While most people still live in democracies, democracy has declined in countries home to one-third of the world population (2.5 billion people).
This autocratization trend occurs primarily in more democratic regions: Western Europe and North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern Europe.
The number of countries backsliding equaled the number making advancements, a situation not seen since 1979.

Measuring Democracy

The article introduces a new metric: levels of democracy weighted by the size of each country’s population.
This metric reflects how many people enjoy democratic rights and freedoms.
High levels of democracy in small countries can be misleading regarding the overall state of democracy for most people.
Even in democracies, women, some social groups, and the less wealthy are systematically disadvantaged from access to political power.
Only 15% of the world population live in countries with somewhat equal access to power in terms of gender and socio-economic status.
One in four people (almost two billion) live in countries where the economically well-off have gained more political power in the last 10 years.

Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)

V-Dem is a social science effort to measure democracy across the world.
The V-Dem dataset contains approximately 19 million data points covering 201 political units over the period 1789–2017.
It provides over 400 variables on democracy, human rights, governance, rule of law, and corruption.
V-Dem uses a Bayesian item-response theory model to aggregate multiple expert ratings to country-level yearly estimates.
Indicators are aggregated to more than 50 indices covering the five core types of democracy and facets like “clean” elections, freedom of expression, rule of law, corruption, women’s empowerment, civil society, civil liberties, and accountability.

Autocratization

Autocratization is defined as democratization in reverse, denoting a decline of democratic qualities.
V-Dem’s Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) consists of the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) and the Liberal Component Index (LCI).
The Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) measures the existence of all elements of Robert Dahl’s “polyarchy” as electoral democracy.
The Liberal Component Index (LCI) reflects the liberal tradition, where electoral democracy is supplemented with the rule of law, civil liberties, and constraints on the executive.

Global Levels of Liberal Democracy

Average global level of liberal democracy from 1972 to 2017 shows a gradual increase until around 2005, after which it plateaued, with a small decline in recent years.
When democracy levels are weighted by population, the levels are noticeably lower, reflecting that many smaller states score high on the LDI while populous countries like China do not.
The recent reversal is more pronounced when population size is considered, with the point estimates in 2017 back to the global level of democracy recorded shortly after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Western Europe and North America are back to levels of liberal democracy last seen nearly 40 years ago.
Sub-Saharan Africa is relatively resilient to the current autocratization trend, showing a small increase in the region’s level of democracy.

Autocratization: A Growing Challenge

The number of countries making democratic advancements has declined since 2008.
The number of countries registering significant change towards autocracy has increased since around the turn of the century.
In 2017, the number of backsliding countries (N = 24) equaled the number of countries making advancements.
One-third of the world’s population (2.5 billion) lived in countries with significant autocratization (e.g., India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, and Turkey).

Advancers and Backsliders

Most countries with significant advances have small populations, except for Nigeria.
The United States and India are new backsliders on democracy.
The United States’ decline and denunciation of democracy as a foreign policy priority are concerning.
Three emerging powers among the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, and India) register significant backsliding.
Among Eastern European countries, Poland and Hungary are key regional powers that are also backsliding significantly.

Changes in the Last Two Years

In the United States, autocratization has primarily occurred in the last two years.
Turkey continues its descent into dictatorship.
Brazil, Poland, Romania, and Croatia have also suffered significant declines.
Poland has seen swift constitutional changes reducing checks and balances, particularly affecting the judiciary.
Romania has limited the rule of law and individual liberties, allegedly to curb corruption.
Burkina Faso and Gambia are cases of significant democratization over the last two years.

Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns

In 2017, 95 (53%) of the 178 countries were classified as democracies.
There were only 39 liberal democracies, down from 43 in 2007, while 56 met the criteria for electoral democracy.
Most of the remaining nations are electoral (N = 56) and only a few are closed (N = 27) autocracies.
The most common type of dictatorship emulates democracy with a façade of formal electoral institutions.
Despite autocratization, a majority of the world’s population (52%) still lives in democracies, with 14% in the liberal variety.
38% live in electoral democracy, 23% in electoral autocracies, and 25% in closed autocracies.
20 countries have undergone autocratization, dropping down one category.
Four EU members (Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, and Slovakia) lost the status of liberal democracy to become electoral democracies.
Eight countries suffered democratic breakdown and are now classified as electoral autocracies: Comoros, Honduras, Iraq, Nicaragua, Tanzania, Turkey, Ukraine, and Zambia.

Aspects Affected by Autocratization

Key characteristics of democracy, such as the Clean Election Index and the Elected Officials Index, have improved in some countries while declining in only a few.
Freedom of expression and alternative sources of information, as well as the rule of law, are in significant decline in many countries.
Freedom of expression has been severely and negatively affected in 19 countries while improving in only 11.
Government censorship of the media and harassment of journalists can occur gradually, leading to self-censorship and less explicit criticism of the government.
Leaders can constrain the space for autonomous academia, civil society organizations, and cultural institutions.

The Case of India

Infringements on media freedom and civil society activities have started to undermine the longest-standing and most populous democracy in the global south.
The main indicators of the core electoral aspects of democracy do not show significant declines.

The Case of the United States

The United States is now significantly less democratic in 2017 than in 2007, with autocratization mainly found in the liberal component of democracy.
Measures of effective oversight and use of investigative power of the executive by the legislature, opposition party oversight, compliance with the judiciary, and executive respect for the constitution have all declined.

Political Inclusion

Political inclusion refers to the ability of all individuals and groups to influence governing processes.
Democratic inclusion emphasizes de facto access to power and influence across societal groups.
The degree to which countries achieve the democratic principle of equal inclusion is considered regarding gender, social group, and socio-economic position.

Power Distributions

A small proportion of the world’s population enjoys more or less equal distribution of political power by gender, socio-economic position, and social group.
Less than 4% of the population lives in countries where power is distributed evenly between social groups, and even fewer live in countries with roughly equal distribution of power by gender and socio-economic status.
Most of the world’s population lives in countries where power distributions are somewhat unequal.
Men and wealthy groups tend to have a strong hold on political power in countries where 86% of the world population reside.

Trends in Inclusion

While power distributions by gender and social group improved from the 1970s onwards, the distribution of power by socio-economic group has been relatively unchanged.
Improvements in gender-inclusiveness are much more moderate when taking population size into account, with a slight downward trend in recent years.
The level of inclusiveness by socio-economic status, when weighted by population, has been in steep decline since the early 1970s.
By 2017, one-quarter of the world’s population lived in countries where the rich have gained significantly more power compared to 2007.

Regime Types and Patterns of Inclusion

Democracies fare much better than autocracies in terms of egalitarianism.
Liberal democracies score higher than all autocracies and even most electoral democracies on inclusion by socio-economic status.
When countries backslide towards autocracy, the ability of less well-off socio-economic groups to influence policy is at risk.
More democracy and greater political inclusion are strongly associated.

Conclusion

Democracy is still in good standing across the world, but recent trends are disquieting.
The number of backsliding countries continues to increase, with autocratization affecting some of the world’s most important and populous countries.
Under the current autocratization trend, electoral institutions and practices remain robust, but media freedom, freedom of expression, and the rule of law are being undermined.
Socio-economic exclusion is on the rise, with the wealthy gaining more power.