Chapter 1 Notes – Policy Analysis

What is Public Policy?

• Definition: Public policy is whatever governments choose to do or not to do.¹ This book frames public policy as the study of what governments do, why they do it, and what difference it makes. It is also about political science and its ability to describe, analyze, and explain public policy.
• Governments do many things:
  • Regulate conflict within society;
  • Organize society to carry on conflict with other societies;
  • Distribute a wide variety of symbolic rewards and material services to members of society;
  • Extract money from society, most often in the form of taxes.
  • Therefore, public policies may regulate behavior, organize bureaucracies, distribute benefits, or extract taxes—or all of these things at once.

Policy Expansion and Government Growth

• Public demand for government solutions has grown, leading to policy expansion and government growth.
• Growth measured relative to the economy (GDP):
  • Early in the 20th century, total government spending was about 8\% of GDP (≈ 0.08 \times \, ext{GDP}).
  • Today, total government spending exceeds 35\% of GDP (≈ 0.35 \times \, ext{GDP}).
• Key historical drivers of growth:
  • World War I, World War II, the New Deal during the Great Depression, and the Great Society programs of the 1960s-1970s significantly expanded federal spending.
  • The rise in government growth relative to the economy leveled off during the Reagan administration (1981–1989).
  • In the 1990s, the economy grew faster than government spending, reducing the share of GDP devoted to government.
  • The 2000–2001 downturn and expanded expenditures for defense and homeland security increased government growth again relative to GDP.
  • The Obama Administration (2009) saw a dramatic increase in federal spending in response to the 2008 recession, with federal spending in 2009 at about 28\%\text{ of GDP}; a stimulus package was designed to jumpstart the economy (discussed in Chapter 7).
  • It is expected that ongoing federal spending under Obama would keep federal spending near 25\% of GDP—the highest figure since World War II.
• Government structure in the United States:
  • The nation has 50 state governments and about 87,000 local governments (cities, counties, towns and townships, school districts, and special districts) that together account for about 10\%\text{ of GDP}.
  • Total government spending (federal, state, and local) is about 35\%\text{ of GDP}.

Scope of Public Policy

• Not everything governments do is reflected in expenditures. Regulatory activity, especially environmental regulation, imposes significant costs on individuals and businesses that are not captured in government budgets.
• Nevertheless, government spending is a common indicator of governmental functions and priorities.
• Federal spending by function (Figure 1-2) includes:
  • Defense
  • Social Security and Medicare
  • Interest on the National Debt
  • Health
  • Welfare
  • Transportation
  • Education
  • Natural Resources and Environment
  • Law Enforcement
  • Veterans
  • All Other (includes science, energy, agriculture, housing, community development, international affairs, and general government)
• Key observations from spending patterns:
  • Social Security and Medicare consume the largest share of federal spending (i.e., the largest single federal outlays).
  • Education is the largest item in state and local government spending.
  • Welfare and health programs account for substantial budget outlays at the federal level, but federal support for education remains modest.

What State and Local Governments Do

• Major state and local spending categories (Figure 1-2):
  • Education
  • Welfare
  • Health and Hospitals
  • Highways
  • Police and Fire
  • Sanitation
  • Prisons
  • Natural Resources and Environment
  • All Other
• Note: Welfare and health spending consume larger shares of state-local budgets than highways or law enforcement.

Why Study Public Policy?

• Political science is the study of politics: who gets what, when, and how. It is not only about institutions (federalism, separation of powers, checks and balances, etc.) but also about processes (campaigns, elections, lobbying, legislating, adjudicating).
• Modern political science includes behaviorial analysis of processes and focuses on public policy—the description and explanation of the causes and consequences of government activity.
• Public policy study involves:
  • Content of public policy (what policies exist or are proposed);
  • How social, economic, and political forces shape policy content;
  • How institutional arrangements and political processes affect policy;
  • Evaluation of policy consequences on society, both intended and unintended.

What Can Be Learned from Policy Analysis?

• Description: Describe what government is doing (or not doing) in welfare, defense, education, civil rights, health, environment, taxation, etc. Examples of descriptive questions:

  • What does the Civil Rights Act of 1964 say about discrimination in employment?
  • What did the Bakke decision say about affirmative action?
  • What is the status of Social Security?
  • What do Medicaid and Medicare promise for the poor and elderly?
  • What agreements exist with Russia regarding nuclear weapons?
  • What is being done to fight terrorism?
  • How much money is paid in taxes? How much does the federal government spend each year and on what?

• Causes (Determinants): Why is policy the way it is? Examines effects of:

  • Political institutions, processes, and behaviors on policy (Linkage B in Figure 1-3).
  • Social, economic, and cultural forces shaping policy (Linkage C).
  • Example questions:
  • Does it matter who controls the presidency and Congress for tax and spending levels?
  • What is the impact of lobbying on tax reform efforts?
  • How do changing attitudes about race affect civil rights policy?
  • How do recessions affect government spending?
  • How does an aging population affect Social Security and Medicare?
  • In scientific terms: policies are the dependent variables; determinants are the independent variables.

• Consequences (Policy Evaluation): What difference does policy make in people’s lives?

  • Examines effects on political institutions and processes (Linkage F).
  • Example questions:
  • What is the impact of war in Iraq on Republican party fortunes?
  • How does immigration policy affect presidential popularity?
  • In scientific terms: policies are the independent variables; social, economic, and cultural impacts are the dependent variables.

• Linkages diagram (Figure 1-3) – Studying Public Policy, Its Causes and Consequences

  • Linkage A: Effects of social and economic conditions on political and governmental institutions, processes, and behaviors.
  • Linkage B: Effects of political and governmental institutions, processes, and behaviors on public policies.
  • Linkage C: Effects of social and economic conditions on public policies.
  • Linkage D: Effects (feedback) of public policies on social and economic conditions.
  • Linkage E: Effects (feedback) of political and governmental institutions, processes, and behaviors on social and economic conditions.
  • Linkage F: Effects (feedback) of public policies on political and governmental institutions, processes, and behaviors.

Policy Analysis and Policy Advocacy

• Distinction:
  • Policy analysis explains causes and consequences of policies.
  • Policy advocacy prescribes what policies governments ought to pursue and seeks to influence policy through rhetoric, organization, and activism.
• Policy analysis emphasizes systematic inquiry and scientific thinking as prerequisites for prescription.
• Specific features of policy analysis:
  1) Emphasis on explanation over prescription; any recommendations are subordinate to description and explanation.
  2) Rigorous search for causes and consequences using scientific standards of inference; sophisticated quantitative techniques can help but are not essential.
  3) Development and testing of general propositions about causes and consequences; aim to accumulate reliable findings applicable across contexts; prefer explanations that fit multiple cases.
• Caveat: Policy issues are decided by political actors; social science findings can be misinterpreted or used strategically; policies may not work as intended.

The Quest for Solutions to America’s Problems: Limits and Realities

• It questions whether policy analysis can fully solve societal problems (ignorance, crime, poverty, inequality, etc.).

• Several limits temper optimism:

  • Limits on Government Power: Government policies cannot cure all problems; social forces (family patterns, class structure, beliefs, etc.) constrain what can be achieved.
  • Disagreement over the Problem: Value conflicts mean there is no consensus on what to optimize; different stakeholders define problems differently (e.g., education policy debates about achievement vs. broader developmental aims).
  • Subjectivity in Interpretation: Research results are interpreted through value-laden lenses; research is not value-free; topic choice reflects values.
  • Limitations on Design of Human Research: Controlled experiments on humans are often not feasible; natural experiments are used but cannot control all factors; behavior may change under observation.
  • Complexity of Human Behavior: Social problems are shaped by many variables; reliable prediction is hard; contradictory recommendations are common. Nevertheless, social science can help measure and inform decision-makers about past and current policy impacts.

• Despite limits, policy analysis is valuable: it is better to act with whatever reliable knowledge exists than to act without any knowledge at all.

Policy Analysis as Art and Craft

• Understanding public policy is both an art and a craft:
  • Art: requires insight, creativity, and imagination to identify problems, describe them, devise potential policies, and assess outcomes.
  • Craft: requires knowledge across economics, political science, public administration, sociology, law, and statistics.
• The book rejects the idea of a single fixed model of policy analysis. As Aaron Wildavsky notes:

Policy analysis is one activity for which there can be no fixed program, for policy analysis is synthesis with creativity, which may be stimulated by theory and sharpened by practice, which can be learned but not taught.

• The author also emphasizes that there is no universal model of choice; the book invites debate about different ways of understanding public policy.
  • “If current efforts were judged wholly satisfactory, there would be little need for analysis and less for analysts.”
• A famous caveat from Wildavsky:
  Knowledge is negative. It tells us what we cannot do, where we cannot go, wherein we have been wrong, but not necessarily how to correct these errors.
• Policy analysis is valuable even if it cannot solve all problems; it provides a disciplined basis for understanding and evaluating public policy.

Notes

• Note 1: This book discourages elaborate academic discussions of the definition of public policy and opts for a simple definition: public policy is whatever governments choose to do or not to do. It also emphasizes that government inaction can have as much impact as action.
  • See Easton, Lasswell & Kaplan, Friedrich, and Jones for alternative formulations, but the simple definition remains practical.
• Note 2: Lasswell’s definition referenced: policy as a projected program of goals, values, and practices.
• Note 3: Friedrich and Jones highlight the importance of distinguishing proposals, programs, decisions, and effects, while acknowledging that these components are not always neatly linked in practice.

Bibliography (selected)

• Anderson, James E. Public Policymaking, 6th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2006.
• Cochran, Clarke E., et al. American Public Policy: An Introduction, 8th ed. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 2006.
• Dunn, William N. Public Policy Analysis, 3rd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2004.
• Heineman, Robert A., et al. The World of the Policy Analyst. New York: Chatham House, 2000.
• Kraft, Michael E., and Scott R. Furlong. Public Policy: Politics, Analysis and Alternatives, 2nd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2008.
• Peters, B. Guy. American Public Policy: Promise and Performance, 7th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2008.
• Rushefsky, Mark E. Public Policy in the United States, 4th ed. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2008.
• Wildavsky, Aaron. Speaking Truth to Power. New York: John Wiley, 1979.

Web Sites

• OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT. White House home page, with president's policy positions, speeches, press releases, etc. www.whitehouse.gov
• U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. Official House Web site, with links to individual House members' Web sites. www.house.gov
• U.S. SENATE. Official Senate Web site. www.senate.gov
• U.S. CONGRESS ON THE INTERNET. Library of Congress Thomas search engine for finding bills and tracing progress through Congress. http://thomas.loc.gov
• FEDERAL STATISTICS ONLINE. Links to federal statistical reports. www.fedstats.gov
• U.S. CENSUS BUREAU. The official site of the Census Bureau. www.census.gov
• FIRST GOV. U.S. government's official portal to all independent agencies and government corporations. www.firstgov.gov
• FEDERAL JUDICIARY. U.S. judiciary official site. www.uscourts.gov
• SUPREME COURT CASES. Compilation of key U.S. Supreme Court decisions. www.supct.law.cornell.edu
• LIBRARY OF CONGRESS. Compilation of the laws of the United States. http://thomas.loc.gov

Figures (Captions)

• Figure 1-1: The Growth of Government — The size of government relative to the economy. 1940–2010 estimates show total federal, state, and local government expenditures as a share of GDP.
• Figure 1-2: Public Policy: What Governments Do — Federal spending by function and state-local spending by function. Includes Defense, Social Security & Medicare, Health, Welfare, Education, etc. Data sources include the Budget of the United States Government (2009) and the Statistical Abstract of the United States (2009).
• Figure 1-3: Studying Public Policy, Its Causes and Consequences — The systems model depicting Linkages A–F between social/economic conditions, political institutions/processes/behaviors, and public policies.

Key Concepts and Formulas to Remember

• Public policy definition: ext{Policy} = ext{what governments choose to do or not to do}. (Note: inaction is included.)
• Government growth as share of GDP: from 0.08 \approx 8\% to 0.35 \approx 35\% of GDP.
• Federal spending in 2009: 0.28 \times ext{GDP}; stimulus programs discussed in Chapter 7.
• Projected federal share (post-recovery): ≈ 0.25 \times ext{GDP}.
• State-local share of GDP: ≈ 0.10 \times ext{GDP}.
• Major policy areas by function (federal): Defense, Social Security & Medicare, Interest on the National Debt, Health, Welfare, Transportation, Education, Natural Resources & Environment, Law Enforcement, Veterans, All Other.
• Major policy areas by function (state-local): Education, Welfare, Health & Hospitals, Highways, Police & Fire, Sanitation, Prisons, Natural Resources & Environment, All Other.
• Linkages in Figure 1-3 (A–F): effects between social/economic conditions, political institutions/processes/behaviors, and public policies, including feedback loops.
• Key methodological stance: policy analysis emphasizes description, explanation, and generalizable propositions; policy advocacy emphasizes prescription and activism.
• Core cautions about policy analysis:
  • Limits on government power and intractable societal problems;
  • Value disagreements about what problems and goals to emphasize;
  • Subjectivity in interpretation and the potential misuse of findings;
  • Practical constraints of research design in the social sciences;
  • Complexity of human behavior and the limitations of predictive accuracy.