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Observational studies- 

Retrospective Study:

  • In a retrospective study, researchers identify subjects or cases that have already experienced the outcome or event of interest.

  • They then look back at historical data to gather information about the factors or exposures that might have led to that outcome.

  • Example: A study examining medical records of patients who had a disease to identify risk factors.

Prospective Study:

  • In a prospective study, researchers identify subjects before the outcome or event occurs.

  • They then collect data over time as events happen, tracking the subjects to see if they develop the outcome of interest.

  • Example: Follow a group of healthy people over time to see who develops a certain disease and record data on potential risk factors as they go.

Issues  with observational studies 

  • High Chance of Lurking Variables

  • Cause and effect relationships are difficult to establish( can't show causation)

How can we show causation? Experiment

Experiment- A study intended to establish a cause and effect with random assignment of subjects to treatments

  • Researcher intentionally manipulates the factors of treatments

  • Subjects are assigned treatments at random

  • The response variable (Y) is observed for different groups and is compared

Levels: Specific Values that are chosen for a given factor, ex: If I wanted to see how a half dose of fertilizer worked in comparison to a full dose, that would be an additional level of the chosen factor. 

Treatment: The combination of specific levels from all the factors that a subject receives 

  • For example, if you’re testing different types of exercise and diet, one treatment might be “30 minutes of running + high-protein diet,” while another might be “30 minutes of yoga + low-carb diet.”




Key elements of experimental design:

  • Control

  • Randomization

  • Replication

  • Blocking

Control: Outside of the factor being tested all other sources of variation are kept as similar as possible for all groups

Control = keeping things the same across all groups.

Control group = a group that doesn’t get the treatment, used for comparison.

Randomization: Treatments should be assigned randomly to create groups that are equivalent (reduces confounding)

Replication: Treatments should be applied to the largest number of subjects possible 

Blocking: Group similar subjects when appropriate to reduce variability within groups​ (NOT required in experimental design)

Example: In a diet study, you could block participants by age, so the diet’s effects aren’t confounded by age differences.

We’ll know if treatments made a difference if the differences are considered statistically significant, bigger than what might be expected from randomization alone 

Differences Between Sample Surveys and Experiments

  • Sample Surveys:

    • Purpose: Collect information from a sample to make inferences about a larger population.

    • Randomization in Surveys: Randomly select people or subjects to get a representative snapshot of the population.

    • Example: Polling a random sample of people to estimate public opinion on an issue.

  • Experiments:

    • Purpose: Test if one factor causes a change in another (cause-and-effect).

    • Randomization in Experiments: Randomly assign treatments to subjects, not just pick random people. This helps ensure any effect seen is due to the treatment, not other factors.

    • Example: Giving one group a new medication and another group a placebo to see if the medication has an effect.

  • Key Difference: Surveys focus on gathering data from a sample to generalize about a population. Experiments aim to test specific treatments or interventions to determine cause-and-effect relationships.

Control Group

  • Definition: A control group is a group that doesn’t receive the treatment, serving as a baseline to compare the effects of the treatment.

  • Example: In a drug study, the control group might receive a placebo, allowing researchers to see if the drug makes a real difference.



Blinding

  • Blinding: Used to prevent bias by keeping certain information hidden.

    • Single-Blind: Only participants don’t know which treatment they’re getting.

    • Double-Blind: Both participants and experimenters don’t know who’s receiving which treatment.

  • Example: In a taste test, participants don’t know which drink is which (single-blind), or neither participants nor researchers know (double-blind) until results are analyzed.



Placebo

  • Placebo: A fake treatment that resembles the real treatment but has no effect, used to see if the actual treatment has a real impact.

  • Example: A sugar pill that looks like the drug being tested.



 Completely Randomized Design

  • Definition: All subjects have an equal chance of receiving any treatment, with no grouping by any factors.

  • Example: Testing a new fertilizer by randomly assigning plants to either a new or standard fertilizer group.



Randomized Block Design

  • Definition: Subjects are grouped into blocks based on similar characteristics, and treatments are randomly assigned within each block.

  • Example: Testing a medication by blocking participants by age group to ensure effects aren’t influenced by age differences.

 Matched Pairs Design

  • Definition: Pairs of subjects are matched based on similar traits, and each pair receives different treatments for comparison.

  • Example: Pairing people by age and weight in a diet study, with one getting a new diet and the other a regular diet.



Confounding Factors

  • Definition: An outside variable that affects both the treatment and outcome, making it hard to determine the treatment's real effect.

  • Example: In a study on exercise and weight loss, diet could be a confounding factor since it also impacts weight.

Lurking vs. Confounding Variables

  • Lurking Variable: Creates an association that appears causal, but it isn’t.

    • Example: Shoe size and reading ability in kids are linked by age, not by one causing the other.

  • Confounding Variable: Interferes with the relationship between treatment and outcome.

    • Example: Diet in a study on exercise and weight.



Statistical Significance

  • Definition: Differences are "statistically significant" if they are unlikely to have occurred by chance, suggesting a real effect.

  • Example: If a drug group shows much greater improvement than the placebo group, the effect might be statistically significant.



The Importance of Sample Size

  • Larger Sample Sizes: Help ensure results are reliable and not just due to chance.

  • Example: Testing a vaccine on thousands of people rather than just a few to get dependable results.



Experimental Design Vocabulary

  • Stratify (for Sampling): Group similar subjects in surveys.

  • Block (for Experiments): Group similar subjects in experiments to reduce variability.

  • Example: Blocking by gender in an experiment on medication effects

Matched Pairs

  • Definition: Subjects are paired based on similarities, with each pair receiving different treatments to directly compare outcomes.

  • Example: In a sleep study, pairing participants with similar habits and giving one a new sleep aid and the other a placebo.