2305 Election - Copy

Page 1: Elections Overview

  • Overview of Voting and Elections

    • Importance of Elections

    • Two Elements of Voting Behavior

    • The Right To Vote

    • Voter Turnout

    • Voter Choice

    • Campaigns and Spending

    • Presidential Campaigns

The Importance of Elections

  • Elections define the system of government, particularly in a Republican/Representative Democracy.

  • Importance of elections includes:

    • Citizens select representatives

    • Links representatives to the represented, enhancing responsiveness

    • Provides accountability for elected officials

Types of Elections

  • The United States has a two-stage electoral system:

    1. Primary Elections

      • Citizens vote to select party nominees

      • Significant reform stemming from the Progressive Era

      • Can be open (anyone can vote) or closed (only party members can vote) primaries

    2. General Elections

      • The winner secures an office, impacting governance and policy outcomes

Page 2: Voting Behavior

Two Elements of Voting Behavior

  • Focus on two key elements in the study of voting:

    1. Decision to Participate

      • Influences on the choice to vote

    2. Vote Choice

      • Understanding how individuals vote once they decide to participate

Voter Turnout

  • Paradox: High value on the right to vote, yet many do not participate.

  • U.S. voter turnout is relatively low compared to other nations.

Why Do People Not Vote?

  • Rational Nonvoter Theory:

    • It can be rational not to vote based on the costs versus benefits analysis.

    • Equation: If formula

    • Individuals often calculate that their vote won't significantly affect outcomes.

    • Costs of voting typically outweigh perceived benefits, leading to free riding among others.

Motivations for Voting

  • Some citizens find motivating reasons to vote, including:

    • Sense of civic duty and psychological benefits

    • Revitalized equation for participation: formula

  • Institutional Determinants:

    • Factors include registration requirements and timing of elections

    • Participation is entirely voluntary

Page 3: Vote Choice

Informational Cues

  • Sources of information influencing vote choice:

    • Free or inexpensive sources

    • Opinion leaders, party labels, candidate characteristics

Influences on Vote Choice

  • Key predictors of vote behavior include:

    • Party Identification (PID)

    • Candidate incumbency and constituency service

    • Direct contact with candidates

Impact of Party ID in the 2020 Election

  • 2020 Election Data:

    • Democratic: 37% (Biden 94%, Trump 5%, Other 1%)

    • Republican: 36% (Biden 6%, Trump 94%, Other 0%)

    • Independent: 26% (Biden 54%, Trump 41%, Other 5%)

Campaign Strategies

  • Common Features:

    • A compelling candidate and message are crucial

    • Noteworthy campaign messages:

      • "Compassionate conservative"

      • "It’s the economy, stupid"

    • Successful campaigns heavily rely on communication and advertising to inform distracted voters

Page 4: Campaign Costs and Spending

The Cost of Winning

  • The financial demands of modern campaigns:

    • Over $9 billion spent for the 2020 presidential election

    • Examples of expenditures: Clinton at approx. $1.191 billion, average house campaign at $2.2 million, average senate campaign at $17 million

Impact of Money on Elections

  • Money is often a decisive factor in congressional races.

  • Incumbency Advantage:

    • Incumbents typically have more resources compared to challengers

Issues with Money in Democracy

  • Concerns about fairness in influence of wealthy contributors on legislative decision-making

Campaign Finance Regulation

  • Campaign contributions are tightly regulated:

    • FEC administers election laws

    • Corporations prohibited from direct contributions

    • Contributions capped for individuals, PACs, and parties

    • Unlimited spending is permitted under certain conditions

  • Unintended Consequences:

    • Emergence of organizations like 527s

    • Issue ads which may influence public perception

Page 5: Negative Campaigning

Understanding Negative Campaigning

  • Defined as pointed personal criticism of opposing candidates.

  • Often controversial but believed to be effective.

  • Campaign ads typically rely on simplicity, repetition, exaggeration, and symbols to convey messages.

Strategy for Presidential Campaigns

  • Electoral College Strategy:

    • Candidates target large, competitive states due to the need for 270 electoral votes.

    • Focus on swing states indicating possibility of voter turnout in favor of one candidate (e.g., Ohio in 2004, Florida in 2016, Michigan in 2020).

    • Minor focus on states perceived as secured for one party.

Page 6: Importance of Elections

Do Elections Matter?

  • Yes, the outcomes of elections directly impact governance and policy.

  • There is a clear relationship between national elections and the nature of policies enacted by the government.