Predicting new product sales and Competitive Analysis Presentation

Market Too Small
- Failure Reason: Insufficient demand.
- Elaboration: This is determined by defining the market and estimating rough potential demand.
- Suggested Safeguard: Implement thorough demand forecasting during the design and testing stages.
Poor Match for Company
- Failure Reason: The company’s capabilities do not align with the requirements needed to produce and market the product.
- Elaboration: A mismatch can result in product failure if the company cannot meet market demands.
- Suggested Safeguard: Ensure that the company's capabilities are matched to the strategic plan and test these in pre-launch, pre-test, and test market phases.
Not New/Not Different
- Failure Reason: Ideas that are not novel, provide no significant benefit to customers, or have no new technology.
- Elaboration: A poor idea offers nothing new, leading to customer indifference.
- Suggested Safeguard: Employ creative and systematic idea generation processes, focus product design on customer needs, and test product viability and positioning before launch.

Market Sizing Techniques:
- Based on secondary data (SIC based government reports, store audit data).
- Conducting survey research to gauge intention to buy.
- Utilizing regression models for predictive analysis.
- Applying growth or diffusion models to estimate potential product uptake.

The forecast equation is given as:
P1 = P0 + q[\frac{Y_{111}}{m}]^t
The supply equation series is: S1 = [m-Y…]P, S1 = pm + [q - p]Y{-1}—(²)Y{²}, S1 = c1 + c1 Y{111} + c2Y{²}
- Here, $P0$ = previous period price, $p$ = price, $Y{111}$ = predicted demand, $m$ = market potential, $q$ = quantity, and $c1, c2$ = constants.

Product Switching:
- Example: Coffee market involving first, second, and third choices among brands.
Product Substitution in Use:
- Example: Medicines that are used for various conditions and the substitution of one for another.
Consideration Set Categorization:
- Example: Premium brands such as Audi, BMW, and others alongside more affordable options like Toyota models.

Measurement techniques include:
- Utilizing behavioral data, such as brand switching matrices from scanner panels.
- Gathering customer judgments regarding overall similarity, similarities within consideration sets, product deletion, and substitution in use.

Who They Are: Competition often exists among similar budget segments.
When They Use It: Understand the timing of usage.
Why They Use It: Analyzing benefits sought by the customers, guiding product development and marketing strategies.

Competition derived from:
- Availability and control of raw materials.
- Skilled labor and employee resources.
- Financial resources required for business operations.
- Geographic advantages including location and logistics.

Columns of Competition
- Diet Lemon-Limes, Fruit-Flavored Colas (e.g., Pepsi vs. Coke).
- Fast food competition involving beverages, ice creams, and desserts.
- Generic competition involving broader categories like beverages and snacks.
Product Form Competition:
- Focus on diet colas rather than soft drinks as a whole.
Product Category Competition:
- Encompasses all soft drinks vs. specific diet options.
Budget Competition:
- Considers options in relation to consumer budgets such as food and entertainment.

Definition: Competitors categorized based on their product form and category
- Product Form:
- Super-Premium: Haagen-Daz, Starbucks/Godiva, Ben & Jerry's.
- Product Category:
- Ice Cream: Competitors include Breyer's, Dreyer's, and Private labels.
- Generic Category:
- Other general snacks, desserts, and novelties such as Frito Lay and Nabisco.
- Budget Competition:
- Products from supermarkets and convenience stores.

Definition: Competition among Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs).
- Product Form:
- Full-featured options like Palm Pilot VII and Compaq Aero.
- Product Category:
- Personal Information Management Systems (PIMs): Palm III, Royal, Casio PV-100.
- Generic:
- Includes notebook and subnotebook computers as well as paper-based solutions (e.g., Rolodex).
- Budget Competition:
- Business items typically costing between $100 - $1,000 such as fax machines and cellular phones.

Example Matrix (showing brand switching probabilities for five brands):

\begin{matrix}
& A & B & C & D & E
\hline
A & 0.5 & 0.3 & 0.2 & 0 & 0 \
B & 0.2 & 0.4 & 0.3 & 0 & 0.1 \
C & 0.2 & 0.3 & 0.5 & 0 & 0 \
D & 0.1 & 0 & 0 & 0.5 & 0.4 \
E & 0 & 0.1 & 0 & 0.2 & 0.7 \
\end{matrix}

Analysis of consumer preferences shows competition based on regular brand choices across national and regional sections.
Differentiation between cola and non-cola preferences in consumer choices.

Various product attributes ranging from shelf stability to unique identities as perceived by consumers.
Identification of product mixes in order of perceived utility such as local mixes, instant mixes, quick breads, and formal desserts.
Examples include chocolate torte mix, pudding mixes, and a variety of cakes and cookies indicating diverse consumer needs.

Demographic data indicating population segments.
Attitudinal data about product perceptions and general attitudes towards life.
Preferences concerning product benefits sought by users.
Price sensitivity among consumers influencing purchasing decisions.
Decision rules indicating who influences buying decisions in specific scenarios (e.g., office copiers).
Usage patterns by different consumer segments, such as beer and competitive product sets (e.g., shave cream).

Focus on the idea that products and services do not compete; instead, corporations compete against each other.
- Examples:
- AE competing with other financial service firms and broader corporations like GE and GM.
- The strategic acquisition of Scott paper by Kimberly Clark to counteract P&G's market share in the diaper category.