Comprehensive History of the Iraq War: From Diplomacy to the Fall of Baghdad

Pre-Invasion Diplomacy and the Role of the UN Security Council

• The transition from the international and domestic campaign for legal and political approval to the actual commencement of the Iraq War is marked by the outcomes at the UN Security Council.

• Colin Powell was not successful in securing a UN Security Council resolution that supported the war.

• Despite this failure, the attempt itself influenced domestic public opinion in The United States and global public opinion broadly.

• Public opinion surveys indicated that Americans generally believed it was appropriate for President Bush to seek approval from the UN Security Council.

• A USA Today, CNN, and Gallup poll demonstrated a direct relationship between support for the war and the process of seeking UN approval.

Statistics of Domestic and Global Support

• By the middle or late of March, nearly $6$ in $10$ Americans (approximately $60\%$) stated they were ready for an invasion.

• Support levels were sensitive to UN backing:

  • If the UN Security Council rejected a resolution for military action, $54\%$ of Americans still favored a US invasion. This eventually became the actual scenario.

  • If the Bush administration had proceeded without even attempting to go to the UN Security Council, support for the war would have dropped to $47\%$.

• The act of presenting evidence at the UN, regardless of it being described as "flimsy and fabricated," provided a narrow majority of support from the American public.

• An ABC News and Washington Post poll later identified a solid majority support of roughly $62\%$.

• This figure was nearly $20$ points lower than the support levels at the beginning of Desert Storm, which notably had official UN Security Council approval.

• Large-scale global opposition was evident on Saturday, $02/15/2003$, when between $6,000,000$ and $10,000,000$ anti-war demonstrators rallied in over $600$ cities worldwide.

• The largest protests occurred in Italy and Spain.

The Administration's Standing and the Ultimatum

• Prior to the invasion, the Bush administration maintained:

  • Unanimity within the administration itself.

  • Over a two-thirds majority support in the US Senate and Congress, including the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF).

  • A slim majority of domestic public support, though lacking broad enthusiasm.

  • Substantial and deep opposition from the international community.

• On $03/17/2003$, President Bush issued a final ultimatum to Saddam Hussein and his two sons, Uday and Kusay.

• The ultimatum required all three to leave Iraq within $48$ hours or face military attack at a time of the U.S. government's choosing.

• President Bush asserted that regime change required the removal of all three high-ranking officials.

The Launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom

• The $48$-hour deadline expired on $03/19/2003$.

• President Bush ordered offensive operations at $09:30$ PM Eastern Time that night ($05:30$ AM on March $20$ in Iraq).

• The mission was designated Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF).

• The war officially began local time on March $20$ with a massive air bombardment designed to cripple Iraqi defenses.

• The Iraqi army was notably weak and dilapidated due to a decade of sanctions, no-fly zones, and periodic airstrikes, including those under President Bill Clinton.

• The anti-Saddam coalition in $2003$—comprising primarily US and British forces—did not face the same military machine Saddam used to conquer Kuwait in $1990$.

Military Execution and Control of Baghdad

• The initial air campaign "pulverized" the remains of Saddam’s arsenal but did not prompt an immediate surrender or regime collapse.

• Final military success required ground combat troops, primarily US Marines and soldiers.

• Force Composition for major combat operations:

  • $130,000$ American service members.

  • $45,000$ British service members.

  • Minor contingents from allies including Australia and Poland.

• US forces reached Baghdad within just $3$ weeks of the start of operations.

• By the evening of April $9$, the capital and largest city were under US military control.

• Following the takeover, Saddam Hussein’s supporters fled or hid, and the local police force vanished. This led to widespread petty theft and violent criminality.

• Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld dismissed reports of looting, stating: "Freedom's untidy and free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things."

"Mission Accomplished" and Strategy Pivot

• On $05/01/2003$, after six weeks of war, President George W. Bush delivered a speech aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the coast of San Diego, California.

• Key statement from the speech: "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, The United States and our allies have prevailed, and now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country."

• The speech is famously associated with a "Mission Accomplished" banner displayed in the background.

• Casualty Statistics:

  • Americans killed during the first six weeks of OIF: $279$.

  • Total Americans killed during Operation Desert Storm: $298$.

• Strategic Transition:

  • Initial rationale: Search for hidden chemical and biological weapons (WMDs) and preventing ties to terrorist groups.

  • New rationale: Democracy promotion and the political transformation of Iraq’s internal system.

  • Democracy promotion was not a significant part of the original internal administration debates or the initial public case for war.

Questions & Discussion: Realities on the Ground in Baghdad

• Ambivalence of Iraqis: Reports by Bill Blakemore (ABC News) highlighted a mixture of relief at Saddam's removal and fear regarding economic and physical uncertainty.

• Legal Implications of the Speech: The decision to declare the end of "major combat operations" rather than "victory" was partly due to international law. A formal declaration of victory could trigger provisions requiring the release of prisoners of war and limit operations against former regime members.

• Civil Disobedience and Protests: Shortly after the speech, US troops clashed with Iraqis in Fallujah. In Baghdad, the Iraqi Communist Party held its first public May Day celebration in over $25$ years.

• The "Big War" vs. the "Small War":

  • An Iraqi shopkeeper distinguished between the "Big War" (the military defeat of Saddam), which was finished, and the "Small War" (conflict between political parties, thieves, and security), which was not.

  • An Iraqi father and electrician expressed frustration over the lack of government and security, noting that while Saddam was a dictator, he provided security.

• Humanitarian Concerns in Poorer Districts: In Shiite neighborhoods, residents expressed resentment over the lack of water, electricity, food, and jobs. Some voiced conspiracy theories/complaints such as: "How come Iraqi oil is already going to Israel and we Iraqis are still hungry?"

• Economic Chaos at Gas Stations: Thugs armed with guns and knives frequently hijacked gas supplies. While the controlled price was $20$ dinars per liter, the black-market price reached $500$ dinars per liter.

• Soldier Perspective: Captain James Lee noted that his company lost $5$ soldiers during the push to Baghdad but felt the mission was justified because the people seemed welcoming and loving in their homes.

• Conclusion of the Reports: While the city appeared normal by day, it remained deserted at night as citizens feared looters and thieves in the absence of a functional government.