Domestic Politics of Foreign Policy and the Bargaining Model of War
Domestic Politics of Foreign Policy: The Two-Level Game
Governments operate at the intersection of domestic and international political pressures, often referred to as a "two-level game" where leaders must simultaneously negotiate with foreign counterparts and secure domestic approval for any international agreement or action.
At the international level, governments respond to pressures from other states, international organizations, treaties, and the global distribution of power. Failure to effectively navigate these pressures can weaken a negotiating position, lead to unfavorable international outcomes, or even result in war.
At the domestic level, governments must contend with public opinion, interest groups, political parties, legislative bodies, and electoral cycles. Failure to sustain domestic support for foreign policy decisions or international agreements can lead to political opposition, legislative blockades, or even removal from office.
This dual necessity creates "win-sets"—the set of all possible international agreements that would be ratified domestically. A larger domestic win-set provides greater flexibility in international negotiations.
Example: President Obama's hesitation to intervene militarily in the Syrian civil war was significantly influenced by the perceived lack of U.S. public support and congressional appetite for another protracted conflict, illustrating how domestic constraints can limit a leader's international policy choices.
Bargaining Model of War
This model provides a framework for explaining international interactions and the outbreak of war within the context of the two-level game.
It assumes that states have a conflict of interest over a particular issue (e.g., territory, resources, policy) and that war is a costly outcome for all parties involved.
War occurs when states fail to reach a peaceful settlement in the bargaining space (the range of agreements that both sides prefer to fighting).
This failure is often attributed to factors such as incomplete information (states having private information about their capabilities or resolve), commitment problems (difficulties in credibly committing to future agreements), or issue indivisibility.
Leaders engage in bargaining, weighing the potential costs and benefits of war against the costs and benefits of a negotiated settlement, all while being mindful of their domestic political survival and support.