Central Question: How do internal characteristics/dynamics of a country impact the likelihood of conflicts or going to war?
Key Factors to Consider:
Interests
National interests vs. sub-national interests
Leaders
Leadership styles categorized as hawks (favoring war) or doves (favoring peace)
Groups
Various groups, for example: security-focused, business-oriented, or both
Economic Interest Groups and Their Impact on War
Figure 4.1: The Price of Oil, 1960-2018
Highlights the relationship between oil prices and significant geopolitical events such as:
Iraq invasion of Kuwait
Persian Gulf War
Iranian Revolution
Iraq War
Analysis:
Identifies how economic interests, particularly in oil, can drive national interests and ultimately lead to war
Analyzing the Oil Crisis (1973-79)
Context
Gas shortages in the United States due to limited supply; historical reference to President Jimmy Carter's address addressing the crisis.
Key Points from President Carter's Address (1979)
Described the U.S. as suffering from a crisis of confidence in government and leadership.
Acknowledged the energy problem as a test for national resilience and unity.
Proposed significant measures for energy independence:
Reduce foreign oil dependency by 50% by the end of the next decade.
Development of alternative energy sources such as coal, gasohol, and solar energy.
Introduction of an Energy Security Corporation and a Solar Bank.
Emphasized the need for collective action among Americans to conserve energy.
Reactions to Carter's speech included praise for identifying national challenges, but calls for specific actionable proposals.
The Internal Characteristics of States
Key Questions:
How do internal characteristics of states explain the likelihood of going to war?
Types of government—autocratic vs. democratic.
Distribution of power and its impact on decision-making processes.
Transparency and methodical decision-making.
Incentives and Constraints:
Internal characteristics shape both incentives to go to war and constraints against it.
Key Domestic Actors in Foreign Policy
Actors Involved:
Leaders
Bureaucracy
Interest Groups
General Public
Question: Who drives the decisions?
Example of dissent: "END THE WAR NOW! BRING THE TROOPS HOME."
Leaders and their Political Objectives
Leaders' Goals:
To obtain and retain political power independently of the ideology pursued.
Enact policies that align with their vision and goals.
The Rally Effect During Conflict
Concept of Rally Effect:
A short-term increase in public approval of leaders during foreign policy crises.
Example context: "Rally Around the Flag" phenomenon during attacks on the country.
Domestic Support for War
Reasons for Public Rallying:
Perception of external threats toward social or national groups.
Perception of reduced domestic opposition due to threat.
Leaders (both democratic and non-democratic) may seek the rally effect for:
Reelection
Strengthening legitimacy
Diversion from domestic issues
The Bargaining Range and Risks of War
Model Explanation:
The bargaining range is adjusted by the rally effect:
The benefits derived from the rally positively influence A's value and can erase the costs of war.
Consequently, the range of likely agreements becomes closer to A's ideal outcomes.
Concept of 'Gambling' in Foreign Policy Behavior
Inquiry:
Do leaders intentionally provoke wars to gain public support?
Related cultural reference: Movie "Wag the Dog" (1997), representing political diversion through foreign conflict.
Historical Case Study: The Falkland War (1982)
Occurred after increased domestic unrest in Argentina, leading to foreign military action.
UK responded to the crisis with military engagement despite domestic recession.
Empirical Evidence on Leadership and War Initiation
Limited data suggest leaders start wars for diversionary purposes, counterintuitively indicating they often engage after elections.
Secure leaders are postulated to initiate crises at higher rates.
Bargaining models imply rationality—benefits of war must outweigh those of peace.
Public Support Trends in Relation to U.S. Wars
Figure Analysis of Public Support:
Trends of public support for wars correlating with battle deaths during conflicts, e.g. Afghanistan (2001-2014), Gulf War (1991), and others.
Short-Term Rally Effect Trends
Study of George W. Bush's approval ratings after the events of 9/11 and the Iraq War, showing significant public backing at those times compared to other periods.
Domestic Groups Influencing War Decisions
Types of Influential Domestic Groups:
Political parties
Economic interest groups
Ideological/ethnic interest groups
Bureaucratic actors
Collective Action and the Free Rider Problem
Importance of group size in influencing public policy:
Small groups can mobilize effectively, leading to policies favoring niche interests, diverging from national interests.
Role of the Military in Foreign Policy Decisions
The military is a crucial bureaucratic actor with direct influence on foreign policy.
May advocate for war to secure funding and enhance operational capabilities (historical example: Japanese military in the 1930s).
Alternatively, military caution observed in high-risk scenarios (e.g., U.S. Iraq War 2003).
Coup d’état Risks and Military Influence
Military force can overthrow governments, significantly affecting domestic and foreign policy landscapes.
Lesser likelihood of coups occurring in stable democracies.
Impact of Domestic Groups: Case Studies
Example: United Fruit Company and U.S. intervention in Guatemala post-nationalization.
Questions the level of public scrutiny in foreign policy decisions involving domestic interest groups.
Questions on the Influence of Domestic Groups
Influence of small groups in shaping foreign policy outcomes and the relationship to the national interest, e.g., Exxon Mobil’s interests compared to those of the U.S. public.